[25NL FR] JJ Overs To Shove

Villian is 24/6/3 over only 60 hands here, do we make the call?

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP1: $25 (100 bb)
MP2: $4.55 (18.2 bb)
MP3: $9.15 (36.6 bb)
Hero (CO): $26.15 (104.6 bb)
BTN: $38.25 (153 bb)
SB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
BB: $28.20 (112.8 bb)
UTG: $8.55 (34.2 bb)
UTG+1: $34.95 (139.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J:club: J:heart:
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $1, MP1 raises to $2.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.50

Flop: ($7.85) 7:diamond: 2:heart: 5:club: (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $3, Hero calls $3, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($13.85) 4:club: (2 players)
MP1 bets $19.50 and is all-in, Hero ??

Nope. There's probably a case for folding pf even though the sample size we have on him is tiny.

Yeah, this is what I don't want to see if I call a 3-bet with JJ. At this level mostly I expect only AA/KK and maybe QQ/AK to 3-bet pre. Unless he's a short stack or has given indications of being aggressive pre and post flop I think we're behind almost always.

Whats curious is the $3 into $7.85 pot post flop and then an all-in shove on the turn? I'm going to go out on a limb here and say villain had AcKc.

Here is my thought process:

When MP1 reraises he expects heads up action with his AK, he doesn't expect the call from hero. He misses the flop and figures to fire off a small continuation bet with two goals (1) to hopefully take down the pot and (2) to see if he might be up against a set.

When UTG+1 folds great and then our Hero only calls. So villain can't rule out our hero holding a set and we definitely can't put villain on 3 betting with 77's, 55's, or 22's.

Turn is 4c and villain decides with the $14 in the pot he has tons of outs, he can hit the guts shot with a non-club 3, he could improve his A or his K, or he can hit 9 remaining clubs. So 12 outs are good against a set and another 6 outs are good against QQ and lower. And with the push he gets fold equity.

would he really limp UTG with AK? I thought he may have had a set either 2s,4s or 5s because of the limp UTG so low PPs are definately in his range but I just dont get his shitty shove!

Jurn8 said:

would he really limp UTG with AK? I thought he may have had a set either 2s,4s or 5s because of the limp UTG so low PPs are definately in his range but I just dont get his shitty shove!

Click to expand...

wat?

Looks to me like your shover 3bet (small) an EP raiser. He's the almost always got QQ+ here.

most definitely. If he doesn't have QQ-AA he sure knows how to make it look like he does

If I'm off on my AcKc, which I realize is really a stretch to call the exact hand, my second guess is AA and he figures the 4 just tripled his outs!