25NL FR JJ Overpair Facing flop shove

Just not sure what to do on this hand. Villain is a pretty good TAG regular. I have him at 17/11/4 over abouut 400 hands. Does he have AsKs enough to justify calling because I can't see him checkraising with 10's or 9's.

Stacks:
* MP2 with $21.65
* MP3 with $53.20
* CO with $41.45
* BTN with $28.40
* SB with $11.85
* BB with $29.15
* UTG with $10.45
* UTG+1 with $6.35
* MP1 with $4.65




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to CO:J♣ J♦
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * UTG calls [$0.25]
* * 2 players fold.
* * MP2 raises $1 to $1.25
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero raises $2.50 to $3.75
* * 4 players fold.
* * MP2 calls [$2.50]
* * Total folds this street: 7
* * Potsize: $8.1
Flop:
* * 2♦ 2♠ 8♠
* * MP2: checks
* * Hero bets [$4]
* * MP2 raises $13.90 to $17.90 [ all-in ]

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

This is just a BLEH situation. You really can't put him on KK and AA because of PF action. MAYBE QQ. But what would stack off here against you?

Any 2 (unlikely), A good 8 (A8s?), or PP 99-AA

Tricky spot but I think it's too hard to lay down ...

Villain could have any pocket pair or a flush draw, imo. The most legitimate hand for the CRAI is the flush draw, obviously, but i can see a lot of other hands banking on the fact this flop obviously did not help you to try to take the pot away from overcards.

You only need to be correct a third of the time to call here, and i think you'll be good more than that. I call.

Villain is too short to fold, but i certainly wouldn't rule out QQ+ as in villain's range, as considering that villain is a little on the short side, flatting the 3B with AA/KK here and stacking on any flop (or non ace flop for KK) is certainly a perfectly acceptable play. I'm not sure if nl25 villains are thinking on that level tho.

Anyways you are more than priced in vs a range like AsKs, KsQs, JsTs, 99+ so you can't really fold this here.

I know he's short and I'm getting a pretty good price but I really think this is either AsQs, AsKs or AA given how the hand played. I just don't think he shoves QQ 1010 or 99 given what I've seen from him. I think he flats my flop bet with the above hands and tries to get to SD cheap. As to Icemonkey9, I really think he can show up with AA or KK even based on PF action. Just about 20 hands earlier he flatted a 3Bet with AA and went on to take down a big pot.

Also might this be a good flop to check given that it seems like I'm either SA/WB? The only thing that I hate about checking is it can make the turn play difficult (he will be bluffing the AK AQ part of his range) but now that I think about it I don't mind checking behind on the flop.

Well if you really think he is only doing this with a huge overpair or overs + nfd then this is a pretty easy fold as you are like 16% equity vs that range. And that wouldn't complete suprise me as the board is so dry that most TAGs are only getting excited here with QQ+, 88 and a big flush draw (and i don't even know if a TAG like him would be calling the 3B preflop with less than 99).

I'd flat this preflop vs this villain in nl25 FR i think, especially considering he is a little on the short side and will flat with his monsters, unless you are comfortable getting it in on the flop. There isn't much point to 3 betting JJ in position if you aren't ever going to get called by worse. If you are 3 betting JJ you shouldn't really be putting yourself in a situation where you have to consider folding to a c/r getting 2:1.

Thats a good point fetir about not 3Betting. Taking a flop in position is probably the best play as he is a frequent CBetter and there is probably a lot of value that I miss by raising him off of the weaker part of his range.

It ended up that I did fold the hand. I'm still not sure the correct play but I think the two most likely hands that take that line are AsKs and AA. I don't know the whole hand is just a mess.