[25NL FR] JJ OOP

GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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Villain is 38/4/1.0 over 50 hands.

His flop call worried me because this flop connects with his limp/calling range.

These out-of-position hands always trouble me. What's my plan on the turn and river?

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (BB): $25.90 (103.6 bb)
UTG+2: $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $10 (40 bb)
MP2: $22.95 (91.8 bb)
MP3: $28.35 (113.4 bb)
CO: $28.70 (114.8 bb)
BTN: $24.80 (99.2 bb)
SB: $29.20 (116.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with J
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J
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UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, 3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $1.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $1.25, SB folds

Flop: ($3.50) 6
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T
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7
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(2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, MP2 calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.50) Q
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(2 players)
Hero ????
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Do you have a WTSD or fold to c-bet stat? I use those pretty religiously to figure out if there's value in a second barrel here. But against a stationy fish, I probably bet/fold for half pot. I also look to bet/fold the river too on most river cards.
 
Effexor

Effexor

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Do you have a WTSD or fold to c-bet stat? I use those pretty religiously to figure out if there's value in a second barrel here. .

Do me a favor and list some ranges for WTSD or fold to c-bet and how you react to those ranges. ie. How to apply those stats in general.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Do me a favor and list some ranges for WTSD or fold to c-bet and how you react to those ranges. ie. How to apply those stats in general.
I consider a WTSD of about 25 or less to be lowish, and 30% or more to be high. Fold to c-bet % that's high would be say 65%+. Low is probably anything under 45-50.

If a player has a high WTSD or low fold to c-bet %, obviously we can value bet thinner, since they will be floating us more with middle pair type hands. If they fold very often, then we should certainly check the turn, since their flop calling range is so much stronger.

The main problem with these stats though is that they take a while to converge, so you need ~150 hands or so before you start using them. When I check the fold to c-bet stat, I usually check how many flops that player has seen in raised pots as well. But if their fold to c-bet is tiny (0%-20%) and you've seen 4-5 flops, you can safely assume they hate giving up to c-bets, especially when you combine those numbers with his fishy VPIP & PFR.

The other thing that makes me want to fire a second barrel is the board texture. Lots of hands have pair + gutshot type draws that will call another turn bet, especially against a spewy fish. He's peeling the flop with all sorts of T9, 78, 99, J8 type hands that we can get value from. Maybe if his fold to flop c-bet % is like 80% then we can assume he folds those, but with such a low aggression factor & high VPIP, the mistake he likely makes is calling too much. So lets give him a chance to make his favorite mistake.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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OK, I checked his other stats, his WTSD is 37%, so that's a little high. His fold to c-bet is 0% but only 1 sample. This stat lead me to a sample size question, though. In HEM, villain's c-bet pop-up window says this:

VS PFR

Fold to CB 0% (1)
Raise CB 0% (1)
Donk bet 80% (5)

Does this mean he has called pfr's 5 times, and 4 of those times he donked into the raiser, and the one other time there was a c-bet and he called?
 
F

feitr

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A 38 vpip fish probably doesn't often connect well with this flop, since they play so much trash. If it is as cold calling 15/12 TAG then sure be worried, but i bet for value on this flop, and on turn as well. WTSD is not accurate unless you have a large sample size.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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HEM, villain's c-bet pop-up window says this:

VS PFR

Fold to CB 0% (1)
Raise CB 0% (1)
Donk bet 80% (5)

Does this mean he has called pfr's 5 times, and 4 of those times he donked into the raiser, and the one other time there was a c-bet and he called?
That's what that means. This fish hates folding, so this is a pretty obvious value bet here on the turn, and quite possibly the river unless its really scary.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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Thanks for the advice, guys.

I ended up checking turn, and villain checked behind. The river was a blank, so at that point I felt comfortable betting half the pot, planning to fold to a raise. Villain called with a pair of 9s, and I won the pot. c9h13no3, your read was spot on. Your advice about using those extra stats will be a great help in the future, thanks again.
 
chinababy8

chinababy8

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u could continue to bet the turn and if u got raised u could easy fold ;D i though the guy had K10 or A10 as u said 99 well its about the same
 
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