[25NL FR] JJ Facing Turn Shove

Villian is a standard TAG 16/12/2 with a 3bet% of 3.4, Whats our turn line here?

Also what is our flop line?
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HAND #1
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Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (BTN): $25 (100 bb)
SB: $14.60 (58.4 bb)
BB: $40.50 (162 bb)
UTG+1: $33.95 (135.8 bb)
MP1: $24.65 (98.6 bb)
MP2: $4.30 (17.2 bb)
MP3: $7.50 (30 bb)
CO: $25 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with J:club: J:diamond:
3 folds, MP3 calls $0.25, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.25, SB folds, BB raises to $3, MP3 calls $2.75, Hero calls $1.75

Flop: ($9.10) 4:spade: 2:spade: 6:heart: (3 players)
BB bets $6, MP3 folds, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($21.10) 6:spade: (2 players)
BB bets $16, Hero ??

I call this, but I'm not real happy about it. I think he now's now jamming all his better hands and Asx hands. You've put too much in now I think to fold. Villain 3bets a lot for 25NL regs. His range is wider than QQ+ here.

You really can't beat anything other than a bluff unless this is the type of guy who 3bets from the blinds light (possible but not super likely at that 3b%)

I think it's likely he has QQ+ or AK with at least one spade (if not an already made flush).

I just can't see him doing that oop 3 ways with TT or less... and I don't see him 3 betting anything that directly hit that flop (straight or set). Flush is certainly possible though.

This is a fold here I think without some very strong reads that villain will push weak here and even then you will still be behind alot. You have put in alot but I have a hard time calling that.

Remember..JJ is just one pair and that's a scary board. Not worth playing a big pot with.

actually..how many hands is that villain sample size over? I'm wondering how reliable that 3b number is.

the 3bet% isnt really what matters. We should be looking at his 3bet% out of the blinds to a steal.

bw07507 said:

the 3bet% isnt really what matters. We should be looking at his 3bet% out of the blinds to a steal.

Click to expand...

agreed

does pt3 show that? I don't remember. (i know hem does)

(I did mention he may 3 bet lighter/more often from blinds)

I was only asking about hand numbers because if this is over a small sample the 3bet % (blind or not) doesn't mean all that much anyway.

Did a bit of math on the side... curious if this looks solid to others (feel free to tear it apart if i'm off somewhere)

We are getting ~40:16 (or 2.5:1) odds

If we assign him a range of QQ/KK/AA/AK (with one or more spades) we are not in good shape as are drawing to 2 outs when he has the overpairs. We actually have 4 outs against AsKs (jacks and sixes). And finally we are ~a 70/30 favorite vs AK with 1 spade.

18 QQ/KK/AA combinations, 1 AsKs, 6 AK with 1 spade.

So.. with that range assumption 76% of the time we are drawing nearly dead and 24% of the time a reasonable favorite.

So...with that range I'd put our chances of winning at roughly 1 in 5 if we call it, which isn't near close enough to call.


IF we can expand his range significantly (for example include AQ, AJ, AT etc with a spade and/or some other hands), that greatly changes the above calculations but unless and until I can put some confidence in being able to expand his range enough I'm not going to. (I don't assume until villain has sufficiently demonstrated that capability)

It's been said already, but I really can't see him having anything less than QQ, his line is just so strong.

Players with these kinds of stats just don't barrel shove the turn with a bluff here. I think it's fair to say he's not trying to re-steal here.
For one it doesn't happen all that much at 25nl, and if it does it's either a completely aggro fish, but even then not a lot, or a really good thinking player who sees you stealing a lot. And even then they much prefer you taking their blind afaik.

I don't really like a call but you're probably priced in..

Tygran said:

IF we can expand his range significantly (for example include AQ, AJ, AT etc with a spade and/or some other hands), that greatly changes the above calculations but unless and until I can put some confidence in being able to expand his range enough I'm not going to. (I don't assume until villain has sufficiently demonstrated that capability)

Click to expand...

I agree.
Villains like this one much rather flat with those hands or muck them.

I don't ever see them 3betting even AQ in that situation.

And unless his stats are way off I just don't see him spazzing out here..

Low-mid pp that could have hit a set would flat your btn raise too imo, so that's not it I think. Even though they still crush us.

some nice work tygran especially, appreciate all your input here guys thanks very much !

Tough but it seems a fold here is in order. You're going to be looking at QQ+ here way too often.