Originally Posted by WVHillbilly
No way you should ever fold this. I jut ran this one through PokerStove and narrowed the villains range down to 33/99/JJ+/KQs+ (clubs only)/AJos+ (with one club only). I'd say that's way too tight a range really but even against that range were 72% to win this hand. Even if we give the villain the made flush here we're 25% to win on the river. Put your chips in the middle.
I think raising with 3/3 in early position is questionable for his range but there's no way he's calling the bet on the flop with that hand.
9/9 is a possibility, in which case we're crushed.
J/J is a possibility, in which case we're crushed.
Kc/Qc, Ac/Kc, and Ac/Qc mean we're in really bad shape.
I guess Q/Q+ hands could have been trying to trap, and then panicked when they saw three-to-a-flush on the board.
What made me think folding was best was the check on the flop and the shove on the turn, with a 1.4 aggression factor. I think he has a flush about 2/3 of the time, and we don't beat a flush 1/3 of the time.
Shinetown.45 brings up an interesting question regarding the number of hands played with this person. I'd be a lot more likely to call with a small sample size.
However, if this person is someone who keeps rebuying every time they lose a blind (hence the $25 stack), coupled with those stats, they are more likely than not to be a good/observant player. Reloading after losing blinds is a move that observant/meticulous people make, which makes him more dangerous (less callable).
But if he lost the blinds, then $1, then $2, then the blinds again, then another $8, and *then* reloaded, he's less likely to be observant/careful and would be less dangerous (more callable).