25NL FR AK TPTK

joos

joos

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Villain is 28/6/11 over 67 hands. This is an easy fold on such a dry board and no odds most of the time. Does he ever show up with Ax here due to his post flop aggression or is this 66 all the way?

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $25.05
CO: $4.80
BTN: $23.80
SB: $24.85
BB: $12.90
Hero (UTG): $27.60
UTG+1: $24.65

Pre-Flop:
Kc.gif
Ac.gif
dealt :ac4: :kc4: to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1, 4 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($3) :qs4:
Qs.gif
:6c4: :kd4:
Kd.gif
(3 Players)
SB bets $3, BB folds, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($9) :2h4: (2 Players)
SB bets $20.85 and is All-In, Hero ?
 
B

bw07507

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Aggression Frequency???

Umm, I think I call this all day long given his AF and since his line is so wierd. Aggression Frequency stats would be nice. Anything over like 35-40% this is an easy stack i believe.
 
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bigjoker66

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I don't think he has 66 here, but more likely KQ or even K2s.
You have 67 hands on him, it all depends on what he has been showing down. Has he ever been caught with a bluff? How may times has he gone all in? Whats his won at showdown %?

All in like this is usually a big hand, even with high aggression.
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Weird hand ... tough to fold TPTK here but I'm guessing you're probably beat. If he hasn't shown down and you got a good feeling about things go ahead and call it, but again I have a strong feeling you're beat with 2 pair or a made 66 or 22 set.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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This is at best close and at worst an easy fold. His stats, while certainly not conclusive, don't suggest that he's clueless, so the idea of him sticking his entire stack in as a huge overbet on a total bluff seems farfetched to me (but that's not to say that it can't happen). The board is rainbow, so he doesn't have a flushdraw. He could be semibluffing with JT, but again, that's a bit of a stretch.

If he's really wild, this could be KJ.

At the table, the little exercise I go through to make these decisions in time is to "find the call." If I need to jump through all sorts of hoops in order to find it, it probably isn't worth it. Here, we need to parlay the probability of him doing this with air or massively overplay a weak top pair often enough to offset the times he actually has a set or two pair. I think that's hard to do.

Add to this the fact that we're drawing to at most three outs when we're behind, and it's a fold. If we had some outs (OESD or flushdraw, or could even trust that two-pair/trip outs were good) then we might get it in and hope for the best. But I don't think this is the time.

If he's prone to doing silly overbet shoves with really weak hands, then we'll find out about it soon enough. And it's smarter to let someone else pay the tuition fee for that lesson.
 
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chink44

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I believe he has a weaker king here alot. Calling pre flop, then betting into you can mean that he has a King (weaker than yours) or a set. But this doesnt seem like a crazy board here to be betting the set out for that much at least anyways. This line really seems like a weaker king or KQ maybe. The 2 on the turn seems very harmless here and I dont see myself getting away from this at all.

Raise the flop, possibly call a shove here just to find out some information on where you stand in the hand. But the pot bet on the flop and shove on the turn seems like a really weird set line here
 
PopeNegro

PopeNegro

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The line is just so weird. I'd probably make this call since I cant see him doing this with 2pair+. He really polarized his range here, he either has a set or its a complete bluff.
 
joos

joos

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I believe he has a weaker king here alot. Calling pre flop, then betting into you can mean that he has a King (weaker than yours) or a set. But this doesnt seem like a crazy board here to be betting the set out for that much at least anyways. This line really seems like a weaker king or KQ maybe. The 2 on the turn seems very harmless here and I dont see myself getting away from this at all.

Raise the flop, possibly call a shove here just to find out some information on where you stand in the hand. But the pot bet on the flop and shove on the turn seems like a really weird set line here

I dont think raising the flop accomplished anything here. It is a very dry board to where raising folds out all the hands that we are ahead of and only gets called by sets and 2 pr. If he does indeed have a weak king, he is drawing to 3 outs.
 
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chink44

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Yes, but by raising the flop and then him shoving the turn we can at least believe our hand here is beat if he calls. Now we are stuck wondering whether or not our TPTK on the turn is any good here. Could he possibly be trying to push out a SD here on the turn thinking his TPGK is good. By raising the flop here we find out if he calls, he probably has us beat, especially with the weird turn line, and if he folds we at least take down a small pot
 
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