[25nl FR] AJ River decision

eNTy

eNTy

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MP1: $25.50 (102 bb)
MP2: $4.65 (18.6 bb)
MP3: $4.65 (18.6 bb)
CO: $17 (68 bb)
BTN: $32.80 (131.2 bb)
SB: $4.75 (19 bb)
BB: $23.70 (94.8 bb)
Hero (UTG): $25 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $24.90 (99.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG with J
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A
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Hero raises to $1, 5 folds, BTN calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.35) 4
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9
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7
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(2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, BTN calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.55) 3
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(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

River: ($6.55) A
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(2 players)
Hero ??

Not much reads on villain except that he doesn't seem to be very good at first glance. Saw him call a min 4 bet bb vs a sb raiser with J3s earlier, flop 2 pair and get it vs QQ.

What is our river action ? What will a bet accomplish and is this the best approach ?
 
pantin007

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with the J3 hand, how did he bet postflop? any small min raises like on the turn?
 
Jagsti

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Fold pf..... as played I probably bet $3. He seems bad enough that he'll call with worse. If he r/r though I'm considering folding.
 
eNTy

eNTy

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I know a lot of you guys say fold AJ UTG but I think it's still reasonable to open it.

If we are folding to a r/r what is to be said about a c/c ?

To pantin the QQ guy was halfstacked so I think he just shoved the J3x flop.
 
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feitr

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Easy bet/fold. Unless villain is a spaz you'll never ever be bluff raised here and a river raise is almost always a4/a9/a7.

c/c is HORRIBLE ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE. Villain will never value bet worse on the river unless he somehow has like AT or A8 and these will call a bet on the river anyways. W/o reads there isn't any reason for you to think villain has 86 here and will bluff the river (esp. given the turn action). Villain would have to have a huge flop peeling range and have a super high bluffing freq. on the river for c/c to even cross your mind.

Villain's calling range on the river is probably way wider than his river vbetting + bluffing range, which means b/f>>>>>>>>>>>>>c/c.

And i also think AJo is a fold in FR. I'd open AJs, and AQo+.
 
Jagsti

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Enty... loook how many s/s u have to act behind you... are u callin them if they shove. Just fold pf.
 
pantin007

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Easy bet/fold. Unless villain is a spaz you'll never ever be bluff raised here and a river raise is almost always a4/a9/a7.

c/c is HORRIBLE ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE. Villain will never value bet worse on the river unless he somehow has like AT or A8 and these will call a bet on the river anyways. W/o reads there isn't any reason for you to think villain has 86 here and will bluff the river (esp. given the turn action). Villain would have to have a huge flop peeling range and have a super high bluffing freq. on the river for c/c to even cross your mind.

Villain's calling range on the river is probably way wider than his river vbetting + bluffing range, which means b/f>>>>>>>>>>>>>c/c.

And i also think AJo is a fold in FR. I'd open AJs, and AQo+.
+1, i really do hate c/c here
 
eNTy

eNTy

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Enty... loook how many s/s u have to act behind you... are u callin them if they shove. Just fold pf.

No, but they don't wake up with hands they shove every orbit.
They shove JJ+ and AQ+ imo so it's not like every hand a shortstack is pushing.
 
tenbob

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Easy bet/fold. Unless villain is a spaz you'll never ever be bluff raised here and a river raise is almost always a4/a9/a7.

c/c is HORRIBLE ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE. Villain will never value bet worse on the river unless he somehow has like AT or A8 and these will call a bet on the river anyways. W/o reads there isn't any reason for you to think villain has 86 here and will bluff the river (esp. given the turn action). Villain would have to have a huge flop peeling range and have a super high bluffing freq. on the river for c/c to even cross your mind.

Villain's calling range on the river is probably way wider than his river vbetting + bluffing range, which means b/f>>>>>>>>>>>>>c/c.

And i also think AJo is a fold in FR. I'd open AJs, and AQo+.

I dont overly mind opening with AJ UTG, marginal at best but not a massive leak. Meh, Enty its probably best if you tighten right up from EP though, even considering raising KQ from the same posn is spewy.

I think the river against a bad player here is more interesting and warrents a little more thought than OMG b/f as a standard line.

Villian has prooven himself an extremly bad and bluffy player already as prooven by his crazy preflop action with J3, and we simply cannot call a raise if we bet. Surely in this spot giving a little rope is worth a little consideration ? Checking here will almost always induce a bet from this guy with the vast majority of his range, even if it is a whiffed draw.
 
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feitr

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a 4B pre w/J3 doesn't give us any idea about his postflop play. If we did think that villain had a very wide range here and was inclined to bluff if checked to then absolutely c/c is a good line. But given the 50c bet on the turn it doesn't really look like villain has a draw (would be the worst bet ever if he did) and it also doesn't make me think that villain is inclined to then throw out $5 on the river with air. If we think villain probably has a 9x or 7x type of hand here and will call a river bet then c/cing is not good coz we miss out all value on his one pair hands that villain checks behind and we call all his 2 pair+ range that he vbets on river.

w/ reads that villain has a high river bluffing frequencies and preferrably a very wide flop peeling range (so that alot of air will be in his range - means alot of his range will be bluffs) then this is a c/c and i did point that out in my OP. But vs a relative unknown who is more likely to call down with garbage than bluff air (for all we know) then this is a clear bet on the river.

And who cares if we can't call a river raise? What is even worse is missing value from one pair hands and paying off 2 pair hands and better. Villain's river bluffing frequencies have to be quite high for us to overcome this fact.
 
Jurn8

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fold pf, however have to stick a value of about $3-3.50 in there and see how he reacts. He may call down light or be on a draw
 
zachvac

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You've got HEM right? Filter it to when you're UTG (you may only be able to do EP, just do that then) and have AJ and raise preflop. For most people it's gonna be a losing play. If you're winning with it then just keep doing it but I have a feeling you'll be surprised with what you see.

Anyway I agree with above, just bet/fold this river for like $4.
 
WVHillbilly

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I thought you ran the numbers for AJ from EP the last time you got advice to fold it preflop? It's a very marginal loser for me from both UTG and UTG+1. Now I just fold it (both suited and off).
 
eNTy

eNTy

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I thought you ran the numbers for AJ from EP the last time you got advice to fold it preflop? It's a very marginal loser for me from both UTG and UTG+1. Now I just fold it (both suited and off).

Yes I did, and it was a small winner back then.
Like $8 after 35k ish hands of 10nl I think.

It now is a marginal loser. -1$ with 245 hands returned.
 
WVHillbilly

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Yes I did, and it was a small winner back then.
Like $8 after 35k ish hands of 10nl I think.

It now is a marginal loser. -1$ with 245 hands returned.

So folding it from EP costs you nothing and saves you from having to make tough decisions with a marginal hand OOP. Seems like a no-brainer to me.
 
eNTy

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So folding it from EP costs you nothing and saves you from having to make tough decisions with a marginal hand OOP. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Allrighty.

Villain here was a complete fish imo, it was just unlucky he had 2 pair here as he would minbet river with 7 high as well. His stats and the way he played J3 didn't lie..

I still like c/c especially since he minbet it I think.
 
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feitr

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I still like c/c especially since he minbet it I think.

Why? You must start to think through things like this enty. Why do you think c/c is a good idea?

The basis behind c/c is this. Villain MUST have a high bluffing frequency and we must have a reasonable expectation that villain will bet river (in this case) when checked to. Related to this is the fact that we typically need villain to have a wide preflop and flop peeling range - because if this is the case villain will have alot of air hands and if we reasonably expect villain to bluff with a decent portion of these then villain's range is heavily weighted towards bluffs when he bets river.

Another reason might be if we think metagame is such that villain can value bet us very light, but might not call down as light (very rare that this would happen - you'd need to be a bad loose passive in villain's eyes). So in this case villain might vbet 9K thinking he can get called down by a worse 9 and a 7, but if you bet you almost always have an A or 2 pair so villain will fold. But you don't encounter thinking players at nl25 so don't worry about this last one.

So, we have to consider 2 things on the river. Villain's range for betting the river and villain's range for calling the river. Villain's range for betting the river here will be 2 pair + hands and bluffs - and almost never anything else. This kinda villain isn't going to vbet a nine on the river nor is villain likely to turn a hand like K4 into a bluff. So frankly we might as well be calling down with a 7 on this river, since a 7 is going to beat as many of villain's bluffs as will AJ. So the only time c/c can be good is if villain will bluff river alot or turn some of his weak made hands into a bluff (like K4 realising it probably isn't good - but again this villain won't do that). Where AJ>>>>>>>>>>>7x is when it comes to villain's river calling range. You can't vbet a weak 7 on this board, but you can vbet AJ and get called down by 9x and sometimes 7x.

So in this case villain's river calling range probably is much wider than villain's river betting range, since weak made hands check behind so we have a polarized 2 pair or better + bluffs range --> and when villain probably doesn't have that many bluffs in his range (and lets face it we have ABSOLUTELY NO idea about villain's river bluffing frequencies at this stage so it is a blind guess at best) c/c is just so bad.

I think i know why you like c/c. You want to see showdown and you don't want to have to fold to a river raise. But who cares? If he raises this river he almost always rivered 2 pair so it is an easy fold knowing you aren't ahead. You absolutely must be looking to extract the most value, not just getting to showdown by all means necessary even if it means that you take a bad line (c/c) that will never be good vs villain's vbetting range and you might as well be snapping off whatever portion of villain's range is a bluff with a much worse hand. You are turning your strong AJ into 32 for all intensive purposes by choosing to c/c (except in the cases where villain has a worse A high on the turn for some reason).

But honestly enty read this until you understand it because it is extremely important to understand.
 
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feitr

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One thing all you guys who are playing a bit lower and trying to figure things out is to really really analyze why you are thinking of takign a certain line. Why do you want to c/c? Is it just to see showdown and to keep the pot small? Coz if so that is really bad logic to take coz you aren't thinking about villain's ranges (and how they change depending on your line) and what your range is in the eyes of villain.

In this case for example, I think b/f>>>>>>>>>>>>>>c/f >>>> c/c (unless it is a silly bet that gives you excellent odds) unless you have a reasonable expectation that villain has a high river bluffing frequency (which we don't). That is how bad i think c/cing is here. If you don't think villain can call you down on this river with some worse one pair hands and have no reason to think villain has a very wide range of which a large portion will bluff, then you should never c/c but c/f.
 
zachvac

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Why? You must start to think through things like this enty. Why do you think c/c is a good idea?

The basis behind c/c is this. Villain MUST have a high bluffing frequency and we must have a reasonable expectation that villain will bet river (in this case) when checked to. Related to this is the fact that we typically need villain to have a wide preflop and flop peeling range - because if this is the case villain will have alot of air hands and if we reasonably expect villain to bluff with a decent portion of these then villain's range is heavily weighted towards bluffs when he bets river.

Another reason might be if we think metagame is such that villain can value bet us very light, but might not call down as light (very rare that this would happen - you'd need to be a bad loose passive in villain's eyes). So in this case villain might vbet 9K thinking he can get called down by a worse 9 and a 7, but if you bet you almost always have an A or 2 pair so villain will fold. But you don't encounter thinking players at nl25 so don't worry about this last one.

So, we have to consider 2 things on the river. Villain's range for betting the river and villain's range for calling the river. Villain's range for betting the river here will be 2 pair + hands and bluffs - and almost never anything else. This kinda villain isn't going to vbet a nine on the river nor is villain likely to turn a hand like K4 into a bluff. So frankly we might as well be calling down with a 7 on this river, since a 7 is going to beat as many of villain's bluffs as will AJ. So the only time c/c can be good is if villain will bluff river alot or turn some of his weak made hands into a bluff (like K4 realising it probably isn't good - but again this villain won't do that). Where AJ>>>>>>>>>>>7x is when it comes to villain's river calling range. You can't vbet a weak 7 on this board, but you can vbet AJ and get called down by 9x and sometimes 7x.

So in this case villain's river calling range probably is much wider than villain's river betting range, since weak made hands check behind so we have a polarized 2 pair or better + bluffs range --> and when villain probably doesn't have that many bluffs in his range (and lets face it we have ABSOLUTELY NO idea about villain's river bluffing frequencies at this stage so it is a blind guess at best) c/c is just so bad.

I think i know why you like c/c. You want to see showdown and you don't want to have to fold to a river raise. But who cares? If he raises this river he almost always rivered 2 pair so it is an easy fold knowing you aren't ahead. You absolutely must be looking to extract the most value, not just getting to showdown by all means necessary even if it means that you take a bad line (c/c) that will never be good vs villain's vbetting range and you might as well be snapping off whatever portion of villain's range is a bluff with a much worse hand. You are turning your strong AJ into 32 for all intensive purposes by choosing to c/c (except in the cases where villain has a worse A high on the turn for some reason).

But honestly enty read this until you understand it because it is extremely important to understand.

Very good post.

But Enty did you say this guy minbet the river? Because if you're planning to C/F this river then villain min-bets calling is fine. I do agree though that checking with the intention of calling a reasonably sized bet is just plain spew and as I said above I prefer bet/fold.
 
tenbob

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Just a note.

MY AJo opening from EP full ring.
 

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Jurn8

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nice post feitr, if we check call we are giving him the chance to determine bet size if he puts in like a pot size bet then are we still calling?

On the flip side he could thin value you to try and induce a re raise so we really put ourself in an awkward spot if we check call. I think b/f is the best line
 
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feitr

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Very good post.

But Enty did you say this guy minbet the river? Because if you're planning to C/F this river then villain min-bets calling is fine. I do agree though that checking with the intention of calling a reasonably sized bet is just plain spew and as I said above I prefer bet/fold.

Calling a min bet is perfectly fine (i think i said in the little post after that if you check it should be with the intention of c/fing unless villain makes a silly bet that gives you way too good odds to fold), but villain only has to call one of your river bets for every 20 min bet bluffs you "snap off".

@ enty And also when it comes to analysing hands you should try more to put ppl into a box if you will and analyze how you would play the hand GIVEN your reads/preconceived notions and obviously the best line changes depending on the reads. But the most important things to get out of hand analysis threads is the logic behind why you are making a certain move (like i fully concede that c/c is a perfectly fine lines IF certain tendencies are met by villain - which i don't think is the case on this hand).
 
WVHillbilly

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Just a note.

MY AJo opening from EP full ring.

Is EP the 1st 3 spots in HEM? If so, I'd say that's about right. Can you look at each position to see how you faired from UTG?
 
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