25NL FR: AA on low board min raised

[NineLions]

Table has been pretty tight, UTG limper I've played before and I expect to fold to my preflop raise, or fold on the flop. Unexpectedly get called by a 13/3/2.5 who hasn't opened called a hand yet. I've been 18/10/3 or so.


poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $5 (20 bb)
BB: $28.60 (114.4 bb)
UTG+1: $15 (60 bb)
MP1: $5.85 (23.4 bb)
Hero (MP2): $23.45 (93.8 bb)
MP3: $34 (136 bb)
CO: $45.35 (181.4 bb)
BTN: $24.85 (99.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with A♦ A♠
UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $1, MP3 folds, CO calls $1, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.35) 7♠ 2♣ 6♠ (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2, CO calls $2, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($7.35) 9♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $4, CO raises to $8, Hero ???

Set? or TT/JJ/QQ?

 

[Tygran]

how many hands is that over? (the 13/3/2.5)

I'm thinking try to get to showdown cheaply? You certainly aren't folding to $4, there will be enough TT/JJ/QQ/random other crap in his range.

 

[baudib1]

Pay it off.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

beluga theorem.

 

[NineLions]

beluga theorem.

So you're saying you'd advise folding at this point?


btw, I'm realizing I'm still undersizing my bets.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

So you're saying you'd advise folding at this point?

No, not for such a good price. I'm just not sure i'd 3bet shove.

btw, I'm realizing I'm still undersizing my bets.

A little, yes.

 

[NineLions]

No, not for such a good price. I'm just not sure i'd 3bet shove.

Call, and blocking bet the river?

 

[Tygran]

Call, and blocking bet the river?

This is one option. What is the plan if he raises your blocking bet?

The other option is a check-call.

I think either is probably ok.

 

[GunslingerZ]

If those stats (13/3/2.5) are over a decent sample, I would definitely qualify this as beluga. The AF of 2.5 is very misleading for a nit like this. It's a higher ratio for them because they are only playing with stronger holdings. Do you have an agg frequency stat for villain?

In my experience, nits with these stats don't raise in these spots with one pair hands. The min-raise is inviting a call (or a 3-bet), and they're not savvy enough to make this play to block a possible river bet.

 

[F Paulsson]

3bet% on the CO would be useful since that will give us an idea of if KK/QQ actually make sense.

Versus this opponent, it might be a mistake to fold, but I don't think it's going to be a big one. His AF is low for his VPIP. There are only 12 sets possible for him, but I'm having a hard time figuring any worse hands for a nit to raise with here, unless he's capable of pulling a "minraise for a cheap showdown" move here with TT.

But sure, call. On the river, I'm bet/folding a broadway card and check/calling most everything else. We can't really call the turn and check/fold a 4 on the river because he may well be valuebetting stuff we beat given that we've underrepresented our hand.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

... given that we've underrepresented our hand.

We've underrepresented our hand how? it's been "raise/bet/bet" so far. By not shoving turn when he raises? Or by sizing our bets too small?

 

[F Paulsson]

We've underrepresented our hand how? it's been "raise/bet/bet" so far. By not shoving turn when he raises? Or by sizing our bets too small?

I mean that if we just call the minraise and check to him on the river, a thinking opponent isn't likely to go "well, he's got to have at least AA." AA is in the upper part of our range, I'd like to think.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

I mean that if we just call the minraise and check to him on the river, a thinking opponent isn't likely to go "well, he's got to have at least AA." AA is in the upper part of our range, I'd like to think.

ok. got it.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

But sure, call. On the river, I'm bet/folding a broadway card and check/calling most everything else.

why do you want to bet/fold a broadway card? Isn't that somewhat of a scare card that villain is more likely to bluff with and less likely to call with an underpair? isn't that a perfect card for check/call instead?

 

[F Paulsson]

why do you want to bet/fold a broadway card? Isn't that somewhat of a scare card that villain is more likely to bluff with and less likely to call with an underpair? isn't that a perfect card for check/call instead?

A large part of this is that I don't think he has much air at all in his range. And that makes broadway cards better to donk because they're cards that more often get checked back by weaker hands than ours, and we'll often end up donking ~2/5ths pot and get only called by a hand like 99 that sees monsters under the bed and we get a cheaper showdown than if we had check/called. A deuce, on the other hand, is more likely to get value bet by a hand we can beat.

If my opponent's range is polarized between air and monsters, the above doesn't apply.

 

[NineLions]

But sure, call. On the river, I'm bet/folding a broadway card and check/calling most everything else. We can't really call the turn and check/fold a 4 on the river because he may well be valuebetting stuff we beat given that we've underrepresented our hand.

So a 7 or 8 or spade, or worse yet a 7s or 8s you're calling, even say a 2/3 pot river bet?


I've just added 3-bet% to my stats but it's not overly useful for me as yet. At this level there isn't much 3-betting going on except for LAG short stacks, and I don't play enough to have large sample sizes on very many players.

 

[F Paulsson]

Actually, the 8s I think is just fine to bet/fold too, for the same reasons as above. Not sure how I feel about a T since that strengthens his range by quite a lot (TT being one of the hands we're sort of hoping that he has).