Not that you were asking, but ya shoulda folded 22 preflop. And it looks like he has an Ace so raise now, if he has AK AQ or AJ you could get your whole stack in here since he'll probably play back.
Set mining. Advanced concept IMNVHO.
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I wouldn't even criticize a shove right there, as it would appear like a "I have an Ace but no hearts" sort of panic move that noobs often make, and might entice a call. (IE, a shove appears weaker than a series of calls)
1) im not a noob.
2) if he holds KK/QQ we want him to double barell it therefore maximizing profit.
3) I doubt he is calling a shove into a $6 pot unless he holds AJ which is already unlikely because of his VPIP although possible.
Third. In this case, villain has an infinite AF. This isn't as strange as it may seem. He's playing bet or fold. In order to maintain the infinite AG he has only 4 possible plays. Check, bet, raise or fold, but NEVER call. If he misses the flop, which he probably will, he will either CB or check. If he bets then the dueces fold, if he checks, he will NOT be able to just call. In order to maintain an infinite AF, he will have to reraise or fold and it won't matter whether your holding 22 or 72. He may or may not rigidly adhere to bet or fold but chances are good he will.
huh, so that is how he has such a strange AF. Therefor my best play would be a call on the flop because if i raise him then he will likely fold due to his very limited range. AJ+/QQ/KK-aces are excluded because he is c-betting sooo weak its just unrealistic and im not folding a set here, ever.
If he holds QQ/KK he will likely fold to a reraise as he isnt a donk and realises any A beats him. 90/10 in favour of fold.
If he holds AQ, he will probably fold it otherwise a re-raise which is good
. 60/40 in folds favour.
I think AJ is unlkely because of his VPIP, but possible. almost deffinate get his stack if he has AJ. 90/10 in favour of him re-raising
If he has AK then i expect to be re-raised, i call and get his stack on the turn. 90/10 in favour of re-raise.
So theres 5 hands and 2 is almost definate stack IMNVHO. So to work out chance of a re-raise vs a fold(calling is not option see quote above). We calculate the re-raise(or fold, both calculated the smae way) % by adding all 5 of them together then dividing by 500(100 for each hand in his range).
Chance of re-raise:
(10+10+40+90+90)/500=0.48 or 48%
Chance of fold:
(90+90+60+10+10)/500=0.52 or 52%
Therefor a call is marginally better because he folds to a re-raise 52% of the time based on my estimated range percentages. By calling we add EV to our hand by allow him to bet the turn.
Admitadly if we adjust it to a 50/50 chance of him folding AK then it drasticly changes the equation and it become clear cut that calling is much better.
The adjusted equation of 50/50 fold/raise with AK:
Chance of re-raise:
(10+10+40+90+50)/500=0.4 or 40%
Chance of fold:
(90+90+60+10+50)/500=0.6 or 60%
As you notice with a small adjustment we can move the 4% edge into a 20% edge thus poker not being an exact science.