re: Poker & $25nl blind vs blind - OOP bluff catching
My train of thought.
As I said villain seems to be a decent player. So what can he have here?
- Flush draw - why would he make a small raise with a FD here? He would, I'd expect, either call or raise bigger. As it is, he leaves himself open to being 3-bet - a 3-bet he can't (or shouldn't) call.
- Overpair - villain seems straightforward so I don't see him playing AA-TT trickily here. 99-88 is possible maybe, 88 less so because I have one of them.
- 7x - what hands with a 7 in do we think he's calling with PF? A7 maybe, maybe something like 87s at a stretch, and that's pretty much it.
- 66 - statistically unlikely, plus raising a flopped boat here in position would be obviously unwise.
- Random overcards - the vast majority of his range.
What does our action look like to villain? Raise from the SB, could be a lot of things. Bet on a paired flop - most likely to be a c-bet with air. He raises expecting to take it down (which I'm not a fan of in position but that's another story). I 3-bet as opposed to calling the flop raise simply because I was out of position - I don't like getting over-elaborate and deep into hands like this while OOP, and I don't want to end up second-guessing myself should a dangerous card come on the turn (I classify an Ace as a relatively dangerous card here tbh, as well as any K or club).
Anyway, villain folded, so I'm obviously right.
Apart from your semi short stack.
I generally reload when at <80% of max. Any more and it just becomes a pain, especially seeing as Party's software doesn't like me multitabling on it.
I think your setting yourself to get stacked very very light by playing back at TAGs like this, whats your plan if villian flat calls here and the turn is a duck ?
I'm done with the hand if called, but I didn't expect to be called. Pretty sure villain is folding most of the time and shoving the rest, making life easy for me.