$25NL AK vs SS

No reads. I have been playing TAG.
poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
Hero (MP1): $25.50
MP2: $53.30
CO: $10.00
BTN: $28.25
SB: $14.75
BB: $3.95
UTG: $28.35
UTG+1: $3.85
Pre Flop: Hero is MP1 with Kd Ah
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero..?


Whats best here,
-calling a shoving the flop no matter what.
-AI p/f?
-Calling, and folding to aggression on missed flop.
-Folding p/f to CO's 3-bet
Why?

How long has the guy been at the table? Has he done anything out of the ordinary already?

It looks like it could be his first hand since he has exactly 10 dollars and if that's the case I would just put him all in. Usually when people buy in short stacked they are just trying to steal pots and will end up all in with things like A rag or worse.

Munchrs said:

No reads. I have been playing TAG.
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com
Hero (MP1): $25.50
MP2: $53.30
CO: $10.00
BTN: $28.25
SB: $14.75
BB: $3.95
UTG: $28.35
UTG+1: $3.85
Pre Flop: Hero is MP1 with Kd Ah
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero..?

Click to expand...

Munchrs said:

Whats best here,
-calling a shoving the flop no matter what.
please no, that would be about the worst thing you could do. Easy for him to get away from if he misses and if he hit or had a monster he beats you. Only way you win this way is if you both hit but you hit it harder (ie AK vs. AQ and an A flops)

-AI p/f?
Yes, I'll explain below.

-Calling, and folding to aggression on missed flop.
No, basically the thing is preflop you're only well behind exactly 2 hands. Unless we hit our A and they had KK us hitting the flop doesn't put us ahead of those hands.

-Folding p/f to CO's 3-bet
You are only afraid of 2 hands, unless you can put them on AA or KK the heavy majority of the time here (because of the odds we get now), please do not fold this.


Why?

Click to expand...

Why I'm so glad you asked , here's my logic. With AK we're afraid of AA and KK. He's shortstacked so it's not as much of a mistake to lose to AA or KK here and he's probably pushing lighter. If it's not AA or KK, we want our money in preflop. We'll likely miss the flop and if we do hit the flop, it kills our action against lower pocket pairs. Shoving also gives us some FE against lower pocket pairs. So we get FE from some hands we're flipping with, we probably see a lot of AQ-A9 from a shortstack like that as well. This is an obvious shove to me.

standard shove. sorry you ran into AA/KK

Munchrs I think this is a shove for the same reasons that has been previously mentioned. But seriously, most of the time in my experience, were at best 50/50 here.

Jagsti said:

Munchrs I think this is a shove for the same reasons that has been previously mentioned. But seriously, most of the time in my experience, were at best 50/50 here.

Click to expand...

I've seen hands like 94o (yes this one in particular once that got AI PF) here. Yesterday I actually had a very similar situation as the one in this example. I shoved, the shortstack called, and I didn't improve and figured I lost. Mine are "flipped over", his were mucked, he had KQ. lol

Jagsti said:

But seriously, most of the time in my experience, were at best 50/50 here.

Click to expand...

I'm surprised you say this. I've run into all types of junk in these spots. AK is an auto-stack vs a non-nitty shortstacker.

Zach had some pretty good reasoning there - I'm going to steal his answer to your other questions

ChuckTs said:

I'm surprised you say this. I've run into all types of junk in these spots. AK is an auto-stack vs a non-nitty shortstacker.

Zach had some pretty good reasoning there - I'm going to steal his answer to your other questions

Click to expand...

Lol, well my view is a results orientated view as always. Like the last 4/5 times against these short stack infidels they turn over AA/KK or some other pp.

And as for the junk well yes I see a lot of junk as well and they hit there 3 outers .

If we put this call down to a hand range then yes we call all day long 90%+ of the time.

BTW Zachs always full of good reasoning .

If we base our decision on hand ranges then it become a player based decision on what type of vpip they have.

Lets assume SS stats are:

1) 5/4/3.5
2) 14/3/1
3) 18/6/5

How do you react to each of these SS?

Against 1) i will probably fold as we are against AQs at best but usually JJ+ or AK also.

Against 2) I think that shoving v folding becomes about 50/50 so neither have much of an edge.

Against 3) Shoving has an extreme edge as villian will often have hands like KQs/AJ/AQ etc.

Do you agree with this reasoning?

uh munchrs, i'm not sure if you really understand PT numbers

what's really most relevent in the stats is the second number, how often he raises, because this is a 3bet

thinking #2 is closer to a shove than #1 makes absolutely no sense

and thinking #3 is an "extreme edge" compared to the others makes no sense either. we're talking about a 3% pfr vs a 4% pfr vs a 6% pfr, all of which are unbelievably nitty tight, not to mention difficult to differentiate unless you have a very big sample. if i had any of those numbers over a meaningful sample, i'd probably fold because then the guy like never has AQ here, and has AA/KK a disproportionate amount of the time

however you said he's unknown, so it's a snapshove because very very few people are that tight, and you're crushing the average range, just not a supernit's range

addendum: obv not actually "crushing" the average range, but doing more than well enough to get the money in

oh I see combuboom, wish PT2 had 3 bet numbers. So does the VPIP not have much of a bearing on 3bets, whereas the pfr% has much more of an effect on what type of hands villian 3-bets because the VPIP relates to what type of hands he will play and the pfr% shows what type of hands he will raise p/f and this is more relevant because it dosnt include hands where villian calls pre flop?

Either reraise all in and pray your not against a strong pair/ pray your against a dominated ace. Alternatively call and c flop, you will have either hit or have overcards to the flop, either way you can bet or call another 4. If you miss and he goes all in u fold.

yeah, munchrs. the villain could be 30/2, but when he raises or 3bets preflop, the 30 part really has no bearing, it's the 2 you have to look at. anything 5 or lower means they're only usually raising premiums like TT+, AK. this would mean that their 3betting range is likely even tighter than that. but this is unrealistically tight and you shouldn't find many people who fit that description over a meaningful sample

combuboom, in regards to that I read a couple of archieved threads on various forums about stats like these.

Basically what they say is that a player who is 40/12/4 is much more aggressive than a player who is 15/12/4 because the first player plays 40% of their hands and maintains a high aggression factor so therefore that player plays alot more of his hands aggressively whereas the seccond player is still aggressive but not as aggressive as the first player as they play much fewer hands aggressively.

Does this make sense to you?

The 4 (AF) is in reference to postflop play though Munchrs - it doesn't really have any bearing on preflop 3-betting.

jeez, i really have no idea do I?

you guys no what would be more helpfull than this is a PAHUD article that explains what the main stats mean and how you apply them in game situations.

might look into doing that then...maybe a vid or something too/instead.