25NL 6max QQ vs Semi-maniac flop shove

Villain is 41/38/6 over 25 hands
I have been 21/17/1.3

pokerstars GAME #16412129816: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/04/01 - 13:46:30 (ET)
Table 'Stephania IV' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Krunchy Bits ($25.15 in chips)
Seat 3: bw07507 ($25 in chips)
Seat 4: jz11 ($31.55 in chips)
Seat 5: ICap72o ($24.40 in chips)
Seat 6: Tolo88 ($26.15 in chips)
ICap72o: posts small blind $0.10
Tolo88: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [Qd Qs]
Krunchy Bits: raises $0.75 to $1
bw07507: raises $2 to $3
jz11: folds
ICap72o: folds
Power Dalti has returned
Tolo88: folds
Krunchy Bits: raises $3.50 to $6.50
bw07507: calls $3.50
*** FLOP *** [Th 4d 9h]
Krunchy Bits: bets $18.65 and is all-in
bw07507: ?

Does AA or KK do this very often? Im thinking they would want to get a little more value out of me here.

Well the pot has 13.35 so any bet maky make him pot committed. With that said looking at his stats(albiet on a small sample, has he been showing down good hands or just buying these?) he is clearly agressive. Has he been raising and buying postflop everytime or reraised at all?

If not, I think I would be taking my chances here. Most people do not just push, although the preflop reraise scares me a bit. Its a tough call since you do know more about him but he may just be buying a lot of pots.

From the preflop action I'd think he has to put you on QQ+/AK so if he doesn't have AA/KK here he's certainly trying to make you think he does. What does he show up with here that we beat? AK/JJ? The only thing that makes me want to call this is his stats, but even then I'm not sure we win this one enough to justify calling.

Well judging from 41/38/6 he could be doing this with almost anything. I'd call in a heartbeat, unless 4 betting preflop then shoving from OOP on the flop is something COMPLETELY out of the ordinary for him (even as loose as he is). If he's tried to bluff/steal pots before (which he most likely has from stats) then easy call imo.

He'd probably shove with a FD, TP/MP etc. Ofc he could have T9 and you wouldn't really be able to tell since he is so LAG, but in a situation like this in most cases you are probably way ahead i would suspect.

The problem is that with only 25 hands, we've probably never seen him SD in a 4bet pot.

Ya but most maniac donks don't like to be reraised preflop so he could probably 4 bet with a very wide range.

It comes down to your read of him really. If this is the first time you've seen him put all his chips in the middle, and he hasn't 4 bet preflop yet, then he probably has a geniune hand. But if you kinda suspected he would play it something like that regardless of the flop, then i would gladly call.

Its a tough call for sure, but his numbers are very high. I know everyone has the same chance of catching AA but I dont think just because he is representing them means he has them. He knows he is raising 2 out of 5 hands, and he knows that hero knows he is raising that much. He also knows hero doesnt have AA or KK since he didnt come back over the top.

I just dont see an all in from someone this aggressive with AA KK. Nut flush draw or straight/flush draw are my guesses here, i think you gotta call.

Probably would have to know more about the player, 25 hands isn't enough to come to any conclusion,he could be a maniac or he could just be running hot. The 4 bet preflop is somewhat alarming as that usually means QQ+ AKs, by this point you both have 1/4 of your stacks in and the flush straight draws on the flop may have enticed him to just take this pot down now, since it is already big. Your not getting great pot odds for your call so that may be an argument for folding. His aggression factor could be an argument for calling, but with only 25 hands I would probably figure that to be inconclusive at the moment, add that to the fact that he 4 bet you preflop not worried about opening himself up to a reraise and I think we can lay this down. Take note of what kind of hands he is showing down in big pots in the future and play accordingly.

Even if he's on a range of

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.070% 48.81% 01.26% 18364 472.50 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 49.930% 48.67% 01.26% 18311 472.50 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

It's a shove. Get it in asap. He's a bloody 40/40, I just get it in preflop.

Yeah, with those stats it's just as likely a flush draw. His shove, as mentioned, is not much more than the pot so it's the only bet he has left, so it's not as donkish as it might otherwise seem.

I find the small 4-bet odd, which maaaybe indicates AA/KK trying to price you to call, but 6 max aggression with his stats (even if it is only 25 hands, his "real" stats might still be 30/30) makes it a call for me.

ChuckTs said:

Even if he's on a range of

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.070% 48.81% 01.26% 18364 472.50 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 49.930% 48.67% 01.26% 18311 472.50 { TT+, AKs, AKo }

It's a shove. Get it in asap. He's a bloody 40/40, I just get it in preflop.

Click to expand...

gospel

I've seen aggressive donks 4 bet with KT...some just hate to be raised preflop that much.

Ultimately if he shows up with a hand here that is just bad luck, because most players with stats this high could be doing this with nothing more than a draw.