[25NL 6max] perfect turn card to bluff all in ?

Reads: villain is a solid 200NL FR multitabler who seems to be overadjusting to 6max. He could be stealing from BTN with ATC and knows that I know that and will 3bet him light. He gives no credit to cbets (13% fold to flop bet only) and if I want to take this flop, I need to fire a second barrel.

A on the turn looks like a perfect bluffing card, but is shoving here profitable ?

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

UTG: $46.50 (186 bb)
MP: $27.60 (110.4 bb)
CO: $23.90 (95.6 bb)
BTN: $25 (100 bb)
SB: $32.80 (131.2 bb)
Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with T Q
2 folds, CO raises to $0.80, BTN calls $0.80, SB folds, Hero raises to $4, CO folds, BTN calls $3.20

Flop: ($8.90) 6 8 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

Turn: ($20.90) A (2 players)
Hero bets $15 and is all-in

You suck.

zachvac said:

You suck.

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yeah, i think that's gonna be pretty obvious once ChuckTs makes the commentaries on the hands-up video. That's why I'm trying to justify some of my plays in the HH section before that comes out...

Actually, I think the triple barrel against dj13 and the min-raise on the K river where you have TT and I have AK are my two big mistakes of the session.

This one is obviosuly dubious but i think it's not spew given the way our table was playing.

If he's over-adjusting to 6-max, he's not likely to make a mistake by folding the best hand here. Just value town the shit out of his wide range, and make him pay for being a spew-tard.

I'm not a real fan of 2-barreling good players that know the A is a good card to two barrel.

Also, I'm not sure if I like calling, folding, or raising preflop. All of them don't seem too bad, but I think a preflop call is probably best.

If the "solid 200$ NL FR'er" is zach, then this play is awesome, cuz he's a total nit.

c9h13no3 said:

If the "solid 200$ NL FR'er" is zach, then this play is awesome, cuz he's a total nit.

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Well, villain is 37/24/1. Not too nitty.

BelgoSuisse said:

yeah, i think that's gonna be pretty obvious once ChuckTs makes the commentaries on the hands-up video. That's why I'm trying to justify some of my plays in the HH section before that comes out...

Actually, I think the triple barrel against dj13 and the min-raise on the K river where you have TT and I have AK are my two big mistakes of the session.

This one is obviosuly dubious but i think it's not spew given the way our table was playing.

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lol I guarantee I look worse on this hand. It's just gonna be amazing when he tries to justify half of these plays ("obviously a standard 5-bet shove for value with K7o, and 66 is an easy call here, way ahead of his 5-betting range").

c9h13no3 said:

Also, I'm not sure if I like calling, folding, or raising preflop. All of them don't seem too bad, but I think a preflop call is probably best.

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Well, i think he's very much raising ATC from the BTN here, so QTs is way ahead of his range.

ok but seriously on analysis, not sure if this is good or bad. Problem is most aces are calling here, so now how much of this spewtard's range is Ax after calling a raise, 3-bet, and cbet? It may be a good push but I don't think the A mattered, because I doubt this player is folding something like JJ here (although this would be one of the strangest lines ever for those hands, don't think an overpair to the flop is really in his range). In fact I'd almost say the A is a bad card because there are probably more aces in his range than hands where the A would be enough to push a call if it were a blank into a fold. It may be a good push still, but I think a 3 or something would be an even better card to bluff at, just because of how often this is complete air or at best top pair. With this action he has to think an overpair likely. This turn line looks so strange he most likely was extremely confused. He probably figured that AA wouldn't shove turn unless he was trying to make him think that and induce a call, and a shove from a pocket pair would be dumb, unless again it's actually a value bet attempting to induce a call. Villain probably most likely pondered a call until he realized he didn't even beat a hand like 67 and that a lot of this bluffing range had decent equity against him anyway. Just a guess

zachvac said:

It's just gonna be amazing when he tries to justify half of these plays ("obviously a standard 5-bet shove for value with K7o, and 66 is an easy call here, way ahead of his 5-betting range").

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i'm not sure we played so bad. We just didn't play like 25NL, but as aggression is supposed to increase as you move up in stakes, we maybe played like typical 1000NL or something.

It's just not profitable at 25NL because of the rake. At 1000NL it's irrelevant as it's always capped. Playing this maniac style at 25NL we ended up paying an average of 13.8BB/100 in rake, which is unbeatable.

You're trying to think too many levels up for $25NL....even if you think you're playing vs a $200 reg.

You make your money in these games by taking calling stations to value town...when you have a hand. Not by making all in bluffs with an obvious scare card.

zachvac said:

Problem is most aces are calling here, so now how much of this spewtard's range is Ax after calling a raise, 3-bet, and cbet?

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Remember villain is a good solid player. So I don't think he calls the 3bet with a small ace. Too likely to be dominated. And big aces 4bet preflop. So I think his range is mostly small or medium pocket pairs and connectors here. And unless he's flopped a set, he is floating or drawing here, and those hands fold to a turn shove.

GrantGreen said:

You're trying to think too many levels up for $25NL....even if you think you're playing vs a $200 reg.

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Well, you're perfectly right about 25NL. But this wasn't a typical 25NL game. CC players only, all of us playing below our usual stakes (a little below for me, a lot below for zach and others), so there was no way to think too many levels here.

In addition to Belgo's justification that villain is unlikely to have a weak ace, I think it's an unusual move to just call the flop with ace high with that little left behind. Ace high is never getting a pair to shut down by calling behind, and it would have a lot of fold equity by shoving against a better ace high. Not to mention pricing out "draws" like QT.

I think it's an OK bet on the turn, but I honestly don't think there are many better hands that are folding here. Mostly 55-33 will fold. Maybe a six will fold. It also pushes out king highs and QJ that were floating. I do think it could be worthwhile in preventing worse hands and draws from bluffing the turn and forcing you to fold the best high card.

BelgoSuisse said:

Well, i think he's very much raising ATC from the BTN here, so QTs is way ahead of his range.

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His raising range, or the range he calls a 3-bet with?

c9h13no3 said:

His raising range, or the range he calls a 3-bet with?

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His raising range on the button is clearly ATC.

I think (correct me zach if i'm wrong) that he only calls the 3bet with hands with decent implied odds, 4bets JJ+, AJ+ and complete trash for outright bluffs, and folds hands with negative implied odds.

BelgoSuisse said:

he only calls the 3bet with hands with decent implied odds, 4bets JJ+, AJ+ and complete trash for outright bluffs

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I think your 4-betting and calling range here is totally out of whack. Zach's range is not that exploitable unless he's a complete 'tard.

I didn't raise the button here, I called a CO raise, then the 3-bet.

zachvac said:

I didn't raise the button here, I called a CO raise, then the 3-bet.

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Indeed. And that makes your whole range small pairs, right ?

BelgoSuisse said:

Indeed. And that makes your whole range small pairs, right ?

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During the session when facing a raise on the button, I 3-bet 23.1% and my vp$ip was 69.2%. The following are the hands I floated with on the button:

97o
J7s
K9o
98o
55*
KQs

So in short my range here was not only small pairs.

haha...it isn't that bad of a play because zach was seriously trying to float this game, and wasn't folding to any cbets. In fact, i'm almost positive this was the hand where i said something like"i'm pretty sure that belgo's range is atc here" because i was almost certain this was a stone cold bluff, but by the same token zach probably shows up here with a hand that has a hard time calling the all in, given teh fact that this game was the most aggro aggressive preflop game/bluffy post flop game i've ever played, so no one was really giving cbets/bets of any kind much respect.

yep i picked it


pokerstars Game #19513728760: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/08/10 - 15:34:55 (ET)
Table 'Lotis IV' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Duke748 ($46.50 in chips)
Seat 2: FPau ($27.60 in chips)
Seat 3: DeaDinaDitch ($23.90 in chips)
Seat 4: zachvac ($25 in chips)
Seat 5: feitr ($32.80 in chips)
Seat 6: BelgoSuisse ($25 in chips)
feitr: posts small blind $0.10
BelgoSuisse: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to feitr [Kc 8d]
Duke748: folds
FPau: folds
DeaDinaDitch: raises $0.55 to $0.80
zachvac: calls $0.80
feitr: folds
BelgoSuisse: raises $3.20 to $4
DeaDinaDitch: folds
zachvac: calls $3.20
*** FLOP *** [6d 8s 2d]
BelgoSuisse: bets $6
zachvac: calls $6
*** TURN *** [6d 8s 2d] [Ac]
BelgoSuisse: bets $15 and is all-in
*random crap*
feitr said, "pretty sure belgo's range there is atc"

personally, with the way the game was going, i probably would have called the turn shove with any pair. typically it is going to be a strong hand that shows up here or absolutely nothing, and absolutely nothing was the majority of the range given the game.

Also belgo was lite 3 betting like a bitch <3 (i know, coz he had position on me), so his range will be alot of s/cs (which come to think of it hit this flop pretty hard...but the line doesn't look like he has a hand like 87 etc) and other random crap here, rather than a big ace or whatnot. Also he wouldn't be likely to shove this with 99-KK etc, since as i said zach was calling almost all cbets and could very well have an ace here. There were many times in this game that guys called cbets with ace high and spiked top pair on the turn/river.

Anyways, no one can really give advice until they see the video, as yea this game was absolutely ridiculous and people were making moves all over the place. And i think the levels of thinking probably were quite deep in this game, in response to an earlier post. Just to give you an idea of this table, the average pot was 75bbs...

zachvac said:

During the session when facing a raise on the button, I 3-bet 23.1% and my vp$ip was 69.2%. The following are the hands I floated with on the button:

97o
J7s
K9o
98o
55*
KQs

So in short my range here was not only small pairs.

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See? Told you. Not a single ace in your range!

Seriously, I kind of messed up my analysis earlier. The thing is, that session you opened on the BTN 100% when it was folded to you, so I assumed it was one of these times. Shoud have reread the HH before commenting.

It actually makes my preflop 3bet even more of an ATC range as squeezing was kind of mandatory at the table. It remains true that you will float me on the flop like always and if I want to win this hand without a showdown I should know I'll need to 2 barrel it like always.

BTW, this obviosuly doesn't allways work. In the session, we got a very similar hand (where i'm not the hero):

UTG ($34.80)
MP ($63.55)
CO ($27.25)
Button ($14.80)
Hero ($24.75)
BB ($25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K , 9 .
2 folds, CO raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.25, 1 fold, CO calls $2.25.

Flop: ($6.75) 6 , 7 , 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.5, CO calls $4.50.

Turn: ($15.75) A (2 players)
Hero bets $17 (All-In), CO calls $17.

River: ($49.75) K (2 players, 1 all-in)
CO shows A Q and wins the pot

Final Pot: $49.75

But the CO raiser there is FPau and he is the only relatively weak-tight player at the table playing 23/16/2, 3betting 11%, Fold 3B 94%. That makes him a hell of a lot more likely to have the ace in the hand than zach who is 37/24/1, 3betting 16%, Fold 3B 59%.

feitr said:

Also belgo was lite 3 betting like a bitch <3 (i know, coz he had position on me)

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wat?? 21% 3Bet is too high? ChuckTs only played 15 hands, but he was 47/47/inf with 60% 3Bet... I think I played quite weak-tight compared to him...

I loved this game. And I love how someone playing 23/16 with a 3-bet% of 11% was considered the weak-tight player in the bunch.

F Paulsson said:

I loved this game. And I love how someone playing 23/16 with a 3-bet% of 11% was considered the weak-tight player in the bunch.

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Obviously your weak-tight approach was a big moneymaker in this game. But I think that's because some of us didn't adapt to your style properly. If we were really good LAG players instead of a bunch of regular nits trying to play LAG this once for fun, you could have been run over. We're just not that good and your approach paid off big time.

BelgoSuisse said:

Remember villain is a good solid player. So I don't think he calls the 3bet with a small ace. Too likely to be dominated. And big aces 4bet preflop. So I think his range is mostly small or medium pocket pairs and connectors here. And unless he's flopped a set, he is floating or drawing here, and those hands fold to a turn shove.

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This^ is pretty much exactly what I was going to say. There are just no aces in his flat call/call preflop range. Hero's line looks exactly like a big ace (3bet pre, c-bet flop).

F Paulsson said:

I loved this game. And I love how someone playing 23/16 with a 3-bet% of 11% was considered the weak-tight player in the bunch.

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QFT. lolz at 23/16/2 = weak tight

Also lol at Zach at 1.00 pfa because of all his flop floats.