Originally Posted by EvilEmperor
I think your first statement is wrong. Sure you don't need the balance that you would need at 2000NL but you do need some especially if the table has been stable for a while. There are lots of players out there trying to improve their game even at 25nl who do observe whats happening at the table. You cant just wait for sets and straights to raise or you'll likely get no action.
Umm... wrong. Some of the biggest winners in my database at 25NL ran like 15/14 and just nut-peddled their asses off, even playing 6-max. No one adjusts at these stakes, not even the regs. I bluffed like a complete crackhead while playing 25NL, because players just wouldn't adjust their calling ranges. Regs just do not stack off without TPTK, so I'd raise like every single flop. 25NL players DO NOT ADJUST and therefore you DO NOT NEED BALANCE. And if you're going to balance raising a flop like this, there are a trillion better hands to balance it with (AK, AQ, KQ, T8s, A7s).
Originally Posted by EvilEmperor
How does raising the flop save me chips? It's cheaper to put in a 3x raise than to call down pot size bets on all streets
1) Why do we have to call down all 3 streets? Often we can make reads later in the hands based on the turn card, his bet size, timing, and make some folds earlier. Also, villain is not betting pot the whole way, obviously... He bet 3.50 into 5.25 on the flop. Raising the flop is pretty much equivalent to calling a turn bet.
2) Raising shuts out all worse hands, and gets action from hands we don't want.
TT is too strong to turn into a bluff, and too weak to raise for value, so we call! By raising it, you're essentially turning it into a bluff. When you call with TT against a 3-bet, you have a bluff catcher on like 80% of flops. But blind vs. button, a bluff catcher in a big pot can be pretty profitable against aggro maniacs like this. And how do we catch bluffs? We certainly don't raise... All you new players raise all of your weak hands that are bluff catchers because you're weak/tight, and you slowplay all of your hands that want to play big pots. Its such a backwards way of playing. When you have a hand that can only beat a bluff, you should be more inclined to slowplay, because you want to induce bluffs.
His range is like 10% of hands, and yes, we can fold out a ton of his hands with a raise. But we have a lot of those hands crushed! Why would we want to stop them from bluffing the turn? We just make it easy to play all of his hands (he folds his bluffs, and he 3-bets his overpairs). Calling makes it more likely that he will make a mistake.
And villain will bet the turn 100% of the time given his stats, so call and let him continue bluffing with his whole range. If we get another bet out of all 10% that he 3-bets preflop, that is WAY more profitable than getting him to fold his bluffs on the flop.
So yeah, you can raise this flop and make a play that's like +$2 in EV most of the time by raising. I'm not disputing that you will get him to fold a large percentage of the time. However, you can also call and get him to spew tons of money to us because of his over-aggressiveness. The EV of getting him to bet the turn with his entire 3-betting range is huge, and its a bet we really shouldn't pass up on.
We're not playing to win pots, or get information. We're playing to win money. Take that line that allows us to win the most money against our opponent's entire range.