$25NL 6-max: Take fish to value-town on semi-scary board?

Villain is 60/15/37% over 40 hands.

Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ( $32.97 USD )
Seat 6: VegasSno ( $37.90 USD )
jwwpua posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
cubbies24 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].
Dealt to Hero [ ]
** Dealing down cards **
sprytle calls [$0.25 USD]
brockcrack folds
VegasSno calls [$0.25 USD]
Hero raises [$1.55 USD]
jwwpua folds
cubbies24 folds
sprytle folds
VegasSno calls [$1.30 USD]
Potsize = $3.70
** Dealing Flop ** [ ]
VegasSno checks
Hero checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
VegasSno bets [$1.00 USD]
Hero calls [$1.00 USD]
Potsize = $5.70
** Dealing River ** [ ]
VegasSno bets [$1.00 USD] ($34.35 left behind)
Hero raises [$2.75 USD]...


Decent river play? Raise more/less/not at all?

A K is a decieving hand when you hit absulutly nothing on the flop (well, you do have top kicker ). I personally would have never reached that river Ace, defenetly wouldn't re-raise on that turn, however, had I reached that situation, I would've gone all in thinking your opponent was waiting for a flush (at least he has bet that way) that did not come. The only hand that kills you is a Q, that's the risk you would be taking... I would take it.

He is betting his ten (or one of the flush draws) imo. What is the 37% last number you give in his stats? How about pfa?

norbs286 said:

A K is a decieving hand when you hit absulutly nothing on the flop (well, you do have top kicker ). I personally would have never reached that river Ace, defenetly wouldn't re-raise on that turn, however, had I reached that situation, I would've gone all in thinking your opponent was waiting for a flush (at least he has bet that way) that did not come. The only hand that kills you is a Q, that's the risk you would be taking... I would take it.

Click to expand...

You would have put ~$30 into a $6 pot because you think he missed his flush?!?!?!?!? Well if he missed his flush he's likely folding to any raise, and only if he has a Q is he's likely calling a push. Pushing here would be insane and VERY much -Ev.

I like the size of your river raise. Much more and your ace is pretty transparent* and he may start folding tens or small pocket pairs.

*It's actually pretty transparent as is but he's getting good odds to look you up.

aliengenius said:

He is betting his ten (or one of the flush draws) imo. What is the 37% last number you give in his stats? How about pfa?

Click to expand...

37% is postflop aggression frequency.

WVHillbilly said:

You would have put ~$30 into a $6 pot because you think he missed his flush?!?!?!?!? Well if he missed his flush he's likely folding to any raise, and only if he has a Q is he's likely calling a push. Pushing here would be insane and VERY much -Ev.

Click to expand...

He indeed missed his flush, but he may not fold to any raise. A small raise could make him feel you're trying to steal the pot, thus, if he has a high card he might call a small to medium raise 'just to see', kind of a educated calculated risk... could be worth it even if its only to 'study' his opponent. An ALL IN bet on the other hand will be one which will be much harder to call... to much to risk for a high card \ 'studying'

*facepalm*

c9: I think this is fine, I may go for more though. Ax spades, Ax, Tx, 99-, maybe JJ are all in his range and he seems he's bad enough to look you up with all of the above.