$25NL 6-max: Not by the hair of my thinny thin thin? (Two hands)

$25NL 6-max: Can I haz value? (Two hands)

I've been enjoying a laggy image here recently, so I've been trying to make some thin value bets against the regs. Thoughts on these two hands?

Villain is a 19/15/28%(1.8) TAG-Nit over like a lot of hands. He has no issues bluffing his stack away in a 3-bet pot, but I'm not sure that applies here.

SB: $24.74 (99 bb)
BB: $25.48 (101.9 bb)
Hero (CO): $91.41 (365.6 bb)
BTN: $5.68 (22.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 9 9
Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) K T K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.65, BB calls $1.65

Turn: ($5.40) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.75

Any comments on bet sizing, thoughts on villain's range?


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Villain is a 26/19 over lots of hands
3-bets 5.5%
C-bets in 3-bet pots 89%

BTN: $5.25 (21 bb)
SB: $29.77 (119.1 bb)
BB: $103.79 (415.2 bb)
MP: $22.38 (89.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $67.49 (270 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K T
MP folds, Hero raises to $1, BTN folds, SB raises to $3.25, BB folds, Hero calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.75) 5 5 K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($6.75) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($6.75) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $3.75, Hero raises to $7.95


Raise more/just call on the river? Bet the turn & river? Stop playing with regs?

Hand 1- I would check back the turn on this hand. If I did decide to bet the turn it would be in order to get a free showdown on the river. I dont think better hands are going to fold very much here, although you may get called by something like QJ or AJ, or maybe a hand that picks up a diamond draw on the turn.


Hand 2-I actually kind of like the minraise on the river here. This looks so much like he's playing JJ or QQ wa/wb. If he had AK, or KQ here he almost certainly would have bet it by the turn, unless he has KK and wants you to "catch up". So betting the turn after he checks twice may not be a bad idea either. The fact that he cbets almost 90% in 3bet pots tells me he would be betting his air and weak hands here, and probably only checking with his medium strength hands, like 2nd pair, or hands where he has the deck crushed.

Hand 1. like the pf raise. Okay with the c-bet. Don't like the turn. I'd prefer a check back and look to catch a bluff on the river for the same $. Only way that hurts is if he's drawing on QJ. Or has a weak T that you might have been able to force off. I've generally got to give him credit for being ahead after he calls the flop.

Hand 2. Well I prolly fold preflop unless he's been playing back late position raises a lot. Given I did miskey and call the 3 bet, and the rest of the hand went like this... I'd just call down the river. Don't like the raise. He could show you some crap like Ax flush or even KK slowplaying.

Both look fine to me. Hand 1 he looks to me like the kind of player that will float AJ/AQ gutshots as well as underpairs and Tx, so we're valuebetting his range. 2nd hand he's got QQ-88 almost always here I think. Fold pf though.

How many is 'lots' of hands?

More than 2k I think for both.