$25NL 6-max: I LUV 2 SHUV, or overpair on paired board

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Villain is a 29/24/41% over 292 hands
Fold to c-bet = 25%
3-bet % = 11.8%

Our image is BAAAAAADDD. Because we've been 4-betting over just about every 3-bet he's made. I've been 4-bet bluffing like CRAZY, squeezing, ect. And this player knows I know what a squeeze play is, because he calls me light when I squeeze. I'm running like 33/30 or so.

BB: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $32.86 (131.4 bb)
CO: $24.87 (99.5 bb)
BTN: $73.88 (295.5 bb)
SB: $23.34 (93.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with J
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J
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Hero raises to $0.85, CO folds, BTN calls $0.85, SB folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.65) 5
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5
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4
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(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.35, BTN calls $2.35, BB folds

Turn: ($7.35) 2
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(2 players)
Hero bets $6.75, BTN calls $6.75

River: ($20.85) K
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(2 players)
Hero bets $22.91 and is all-in

Is this value-town or just too over-zealous?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I think I don't like this shove. Given your image, you're probably never folding a hand that beats you, and it takes a really gutsy player to call you here with less than JJ.

I'd rather check to induce bluffs, tbh.
 
zachvac

zachvac

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I think I don't like this shove. Given your image, you're probably never folding a hand that beats you, and it takes a really gutsy player to call you here with less than JJ.

I'd rather check to induce bluffs, tbh.

When does a better hand ever show up here? Is he really floating 2 streets with KQ or KJ? I mean I guess 5x could show up here once in a while, but most of those wouldn't have called. He's a 29/24 and 3-bets a ton, so his range here is not many 5's. Unless he flopped the boat/quads I just don't see what villain has here that's ever ahead. This is a mid PP every time I think. I like the shove. The K would be a perfect card to bluff, and if villain knows this he can make a hero call.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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When does a better hand ever show up here? Is he really floating 2 streets with KQ or KJ? I mean I guess 5x could show up here once in a while, but most of those wouldn't have called. He's a 29/24 and 3-bets a ton, so his range here is not many 5's. Unless he flopped the boat/quads I just don't see what villain has here that's ever ahead. This is a mid PP every time I think. I like the shove. The K would be a perfect card to bluff, and if villain knows this he can make a hero call.

I agree that it's extremely rare that we are beat here. I was mostly pointing out that there are two possible reasons to shove the river. One is to fold better hands and that's just not happening. The other is to get value from worst hands.

I agree that the K is a great bluffing card. And therefore we can get value on the river by letting villain use this K to bluff. And think that's more likely to happen than villain thinking one level further and finding the hero call.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I think villain is bluffing this river like never. When he peels 2 streets without making a move (against my laggy image) on this board, he wants to show his hand down. His line screams "let him bluff, get to showdown" and he almost always has a bluff catcher IMO.
 
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