$25NL 6-max: Bluff w/ Showdown Value on Turn vs. Reg?

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Stats/Reads on Villain after 307 hands.
28/20/36%
Fold to C-bet % = 50% (7 of 14)
WTSD = 16% (12 of 75)

Notes: Min-raises flop c-bet with 44 on Q73r flop in blind war.

Hero (MP): $23.70 (94.8 bb)

CO: $38.20 (152.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with T
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T
diamond4.gif

Hero raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 6
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K
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A
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(2 players)
Hero bets $1.65, CO calls $1.65

Turn: ($5.35) 4
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(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2, Hero raises to $9.35

Given the low fold to c-bet %, and the bet size, is this a good time to blow off my showdown value and fold out a good chunk of his range?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Any hard evidence villain likes to float? How is your image?

I really don't know if this is profitable. High variance for sure.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Any hard evidence villain likes to float? How is your image?

I really don't know if this is profitable. High variance for sure.
Image is clean (I'm running 20/18 for the session), and I'm not all that certain about floating.
 
BelgoSuisse

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OK, so here are more thought out thoughts about this.

I agree with you that the relatively low fold to cbet and very low wtsd stats make this villain a prime target for multi-street post-flop aggression.

The problems with your line is that

1. it looses the showdown value of TT. You're only going to get called by hands that beat you, so you might as well do it with pure trash. TT would be good enough to catch a float bluff by check-calling, which is a lot less expensive.

2. it's much more expensive than double barreling. If you want to get a fold on the turn, your line makes you risk $9.35 to gain $7.35. Double barreling would cost something like $4 to gain $5.35. And I don't think you will fold many more hands with the CR than with a second barrel.

I don't think your line is necessarily -EV, but i do think alternatives are probably more +EV than this.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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2. it's much more expensive than double barreling.
It does get value from his floats with air though... And he might be v-betting a K, or a suited ace here that may fall into his folding range on the turn, and I get value from those, which a call down wouldn't get.

How much of his range can stand a check/raise. Do we think this villain with these stats can fold A5s?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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It does get value from his floats with air though... And he might be v-betting a K, or a suited ace here that may fall into his folding range on the turn, and I get value from those, which a call down wouldn't get.

How much of his range can stand a check/raise. Do we think this villain with these stats can fold A5s?

Well, you really need the CR to fold a much larger range than a double barrel to make your line better. I'm really doubtful that this is true.

Double barreling with a $4 bet is profitable as soon as villain folds more than 4/(4+5.35)=43% of his range. You line is profitable when villain folds more than 9.35/(7.35+9.35)=56% of his range. If both lines fold 56% of his range, then your approach is break even while double barreling is $1.24 +EV. Assuming both lines fold the same range, than your approach only starts to be +EV compared to double barreling when villain folds 73% of his range.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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than your approach only starts to be +EV compared to double barreling when villain folds 73% of his range.
Where you getting that #?

I agree, this move has to work more often, but I also stand to gain a bet from his air/hands that v-bet but can't stand the action. And wouldn't a check/raise fold out more hands than just barreling? Not to mention that if he checks behind I get closer to showdown and all that fun stuff.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Where you getting that #?

assume both lines folds the same fraction x of his range.

double barreling has an EV of EV1 = x*5.35-(1-x)*4
your line has an EV of EV2 = x*7.35-(1-x)*9.35

EV2 > EV1 when

x*7.35-(1-x)*9.35 > x*5.35-(1-x)*4
16.7*x-9.35 > 9.35*x - 4
7.35*x > 5.35
x > 5.35/7.35 = 73%

EDIT: this should be adjusted for rake. Your approach costs more in rake and thus it probably needs a slightly higher %
 
BelgoSuisse

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I agree, this move has to work more often, but I also stand to gain a bet from his air/hands that v-bet but can't stand the action. And wouldn't a check/raise fold out more hands than just barreling? Not to mention that if he checks behind I get closer to showdown and all that fun stuff.

That's difficult to assess. I think that a lot of the extra hands you pretend to fold with your line - hands like Ax or Kx - are actually hands that would be more likely to check behind on the turn because they have decent showdown value. The range he bets on turn is probably somewhat polarized between good hands he wont fold and pure trash that would fold to a double barrel too.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I think that a lot of the extra hands you pretend to fold with your line - hands like Ax or Kx - are actually hands that would be more likely to check behind on the turn because they have decent showdown value.
I don't think this player is that good to be able to pot control with a top pair type hand. He already raised with a bluff catcher type hand blind vs. blind...
 
ChuckTs

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Well if they're that bad, you can't expect them to fold very often, can you?
 
BelgoSuisse

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I don't think this player is that good to be able to pot control with a top pair type hand. He already raised with a bluff catcher type hand blind vs. blind...

And isn't that exactly what you just did in this hand?
 
ChuckTs

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Almost. We do have some fold equity against Kx, but I don't really ever see Ax folding here. So there are some hands we can push out, but I don't think we fold them out often enough to make it work.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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And isn't that exactly what you just did in this hand?
I'm out of position, and there's been a bet put in on each street so far, so I'm kinda throwing pot control out the window. Plus this isn't blind vs. blind, so bluff catching has less value.

Yeah, I'm not sure I like how I played this one, but I think its a pretty hairy spot. I think I have enough showdown value, but calling a bet here is gonna leave me value-towned by Kx/Ax a lot. I hate getting in these spots where I have a marginal hand out of position, with no way to control the pot. I usually just end up turning them into bluffs.

So you guys like a 2nd barrel here as your preferred line? Or check/call 1 street?
 
BelgoSuisse

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So you guys like a 2nd barrel here as your preferred line? Or check/call 1 street?

Actually, for the price of your line, you could also afford to check/call 2 streets. :D Against a villain able to double barrel his bluffs, this could be a reasonable line.

Frankly, with two overs, i would probably just give up on the turn as my default line. Against a villain who calls 50% of cbets, cbetting for less than the pot is a directly profitable line, PROVIDED YOU GIVE UP when he calls. if you spew when he calls, then it turns into a problem.

I don't think double barreling is really profitable here, but i would probably do it every now and then anyway. And given the good price we're given, check-calling one street is also an option i would take every now and then. But my default line here is check/fold.
 
I

Ihatecowboys

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a king isnt often betting at this point. perhaps check calling, but with that ace on the board you cant expect him to be betting too often with that K. its also a sign of strength more often than not when he calls on the river against an agressive player, probably hoping for more action to get the pot big, and then not getting it, takes it into his own hands. I really don't know why you aren't just folding here, imo the only +EV play here is a fold, and I might even check fold the flop. I really don't like the bet on the flop either, because most of the hands you are folding out beat you. you can't and shouldnt put someone on a hand like 66 in this situation cause its just such a small part of his range, but I sense a lot of strength here. a lot.
 
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