$25NL 6-max: 3-streets /w TPTK vs. Reg

I've got a fairly bluffy/aggressive image. Villain is a 26/19/37%(2.4) over 634. Other stats available on request. We recently played this hand a few hands ago in the session:

Hand for History:
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BTN: $21.27 (85.1 bb)
SB: $35.87 (143.5 bb)
BB: $14.06 (56.2 bb)
MP: $27.38 (109.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $31.39 (125.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with A T
MP folds, Hero raises to $1, BTN folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) 5 J A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.65, SB calls $1.65

Turn: ($5.55) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($5.55) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3

SB shows A T , split pot.
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BTN: $4.41 (17.6 bb)
SB: $46.16 (184.6 bb)
BB: $9.98 (39.9 bb)
Hero (MP): $30.93 (123.7 bb)
CO: $39.34 (157.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with A K
Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds

Flop: ($2.25) K 2 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.85, SB calls $1.85

Turn: ($5.95) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.75, SB calls $4.75

River: ($15.45) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11.75


Who likes my line? Good board for 3 streets?

Board is about as dry as you can get for villain's range (unless he has KJ ofc) and even without a bluffy image this board is good for 3 barrels and obv a no brainer if he is inclined to call you down lighter thinking you might be full of it.

My main worry is that his range consists pretty much of KQ, KJ, and maybe KTs. I'm just worried that KQ & KT will fold against a tight-ish reg, and KJ will call/bomb me all in. So while its pretty obvious I'm ahead of his range given the previous actions, I'm worried that this bet has little expectation.

Also, how's my bet-sizing on each street?

I think you played it ok. I would scale down the river bet a little though, to somewhere around halfpot, that way KQ and K10, will almost certainly call, with tpgk, getting 3 to 1.

Against decent players, i prefer to restrict myself to two streets of value with TPTK, so i'd either check turn or river, imo.

Richyl2008 said:

I think you played it ok. I would scale down the river bet a little though, to somewhere around halfpot, that way KQ and K10, will almost certainly call, with tpgk, getting 3 to 1.

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If you do that, do you call a river CR shove?

BelgoSuisse said:

Against decent players, i prefer to restrict myself to two streets of value with TPTK, so i'd either check turn or river, imo.

I agree that checking the turn is probably best here. If there were more draws on the turn, I think I would prefer betting the turn and checking the river. If we do in fact decide to bet 3 streets, and bet the river, I would consider it more of a thinnish value bet than I would a cut and dry mistake, because he will look us up with worse if we decide to size our bet properly against the range of hands we want a call from.



If you do that, do you call a river CR shove?

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I guess that would depend on what you thought villains bluffing frequency would be. This may have an effect on if we even decide to bet the river at all. If we make about a half pot bet and he shoves, were going to be getting about 3 to 1 on a call. He's probably only going to do this with either air or a hand that beats us.

If you were to plug it into pokerstove i think you'd find it would be +EV to bet this river if villain's range is KTs, KQ and KJ. Even if villain folds KTs and jams KJ you are definitely still good over 50% of the time here. And if villain jams river i think you can be absolutely certain he shows up with nothing worse than KJ as he obv has something and cannot expect you to make a hero fold by turning his hand into a bluff.

As a guess i'd say you are probably good around 60-65% or so vs KTs/KJ/KQ and probably something like 55% of that is good vs KJ/KQ.

I wanna make & discuss a few points before I share results.

1) If the river had been any card 9 or lower, I think the river is a CLEAR value-bet, as I'm almost never behind his range. A TAG will be building the pot with a set almost always. Once he checks the river, his hand range is KQ-KT, and maybe some oddball stuff thats very discounted.

2) I'm not sure what bet-size I like best. A larger 75% pot betsize looks bluffier, and gets me more value. However, betting ~$8.00 gives him better pot odds to call, and allows me to bet/fold easier. In hind sight, I think I like 8 bucks better, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.

I think I like the $8 value bet better. I think it's a wash against a king, as he'll call it with weaker kings than he'd call the big bet, but you get paid off less by the bigger kings. The real savings is from losing less against a shove. Folding to a shove is absolutely critical. Otherwise, I don't think it's worth value betting at all.

EDIT: I may have changed my mind. I think a full pot bet might be called for here. Raising preflop and then 3 barreling should polarize your hand range. It looks like you either have a monster or you have nothing. He should be as likely to call you with K5 as with KQ. If he's the type of player to go with a read despite the price he's getting, then a big bet is the way to go. However, if he's a textbook player, I'd go with the $8 value bet. Regardless of which way you go, it's absolutely imperative to fold to a raise, even if you're getting a good price.

good play imo but agree with viking.. smaller river bet