$25 PL O 6-max: top 2+overpair, get checkraised

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 53/37/16

Small sample for stats (50 hands). When I sat at this table, he had 60bb's, now just over 100bb's. Pretty agg generally, hadn't shown down yet.

What's his range for a min c/r, and how are we reacting?

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 629645
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $20.95
MP: $4.35
Hero (CO): $25.00
BTN: $32.40
SB: $25.10
BB: $25.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with K :heart: J :club: K :diamond: T :diamond:
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BB calls $0.85, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.40) J :heart: 2 :spade: T :spade: (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2.55, BB raises to $5.10, UTG folds, Hero ???

Hes gotta have some sort of flush draw or straight draw. I don't know about Omaha, but once in a while I'll find a halfway decent player that will check-raise my cbet in 25NL hold 'em with just about any 2 cards. I would say that you have to just make a call here in position and see what the turn brings. If you were OOP it would be a different story...

I expect someone with his stats do this with air, 9+ card wraps, 2 pair, sets and some good flush draws. I am not sure I want to stack off here so I just call, re-evaluate on the turn and we do have position which makes later streets a little easier to play.

Yeah, there's just so many flops that give draws to a JT board. I probably call, and bet any card that's seven or lower, and obviously any J or T.

Getting this in on the flop is a pretty bad idea, since we haven't really flopped a fit and we're not really ahead of any hands in his flop stacking range.

This post is really a spew check.

Straights complete on the turn and river, I river the nut set, flush draw bricks.

OK or spew?

Flop: ($3.40) J :heart: 2 :spade: T :spade: (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2.55, BB raises to $5.10, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.55

Turn: ($13.60) 8 :club: (2 players)
BB bets $6.25, Hero calls $6.25

River: ($26.10) K :club: (2 players)
BB bets $13.10 all in, Hero calls $12.55 all in

I just wanna add emphasis to villain's aggression factor: 16 with a VPIP of 53% is insane.

marginal said:

I expect someone with his stats do this with air, 9+ card wraps, 2 pair, sets and 6. I am not sure I want to stack off here so I just call, re-evaluate on the turn and we do have position which makes later streets a little easier to play.

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Someone this aggro? Flush draw doesn't have to be good and he might do this with overpairs.

I don't know how sure you can be of your read just because its only about 50 hands. He *could* be a slightly less maniacal player on a heater.

KyleJRM said:

I don't know how sure you can be of your read just because its only about 50 hands. He *could* be a slightly less maniacal player on a heater.

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Maybe...

I also might win the lottery if I buy a ticket tomorrow.


...but I won't cause I know how unlikely it is.


50 hands is enough with those numbers to classify someone as loose/aggro vast majority of the time and i'm not going to bother worrying about the unlikely case he isn't.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he turned over a straight, but when you hit your K on the river there is no way you're folding this hand.

Wes747 said:

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he turned over a straight, but when you hit your K on the river there is no way you're folding this hand.

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How much PLO do you play. KKK is not that great of a hand on this board.

Wes747 said:

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he turned over a straight, but when you hit your K on the river there is no way you're folding this hand.

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A K makes a straight out of AQxx and 9Qxx, two likely holdings for the villain

There are 2 kings in the deck and one of them is a spade, so 50% of the time you complete a flush draw too when you make your set.

and if you ever run into someone who wants to get all the money in on a KJTx board with 3 spades your KKK is very VERY beat 99% of the time.


you have a 10 out redraw to a boat/quads but that's only ~20% equity with one card to come

Let me describe my reasoning a bit - kmixer is correct that trips here is junk, but I also agree w Wes that, having called the turn, I have to consider calling the river.

The turn betsize kept me in the hand (my calling the turn is actually the crux of my question as to whether this is spew or not, given that a straight has completed already) - it was so small that I felt that a significant chunk of the time he either hadn't hit his draw or had minraised w a set and was scared of the straight, so felt that my top two (I was ignoring the KK's at that point) wasn't nec behind his range - I would've folded to a 2/3psb or bigger.

When he shoved the river after the smaller turn bet, it obv could be a lot of straights, but given his 16 AF, the fact he hadn't showndown yet, my thoughts on the turn (i.e., fd and smaller sets make up a good chunk of his range), and getting better than 3:1 (i.e., I don't have to be right all the time for this to be a correct call) lead me to call the river.

So, how flawed is my reasoning?

Fine as played, call river.