Originally Posted by Weregoat
I'm not too good at Omaha, but I would have fallen in love with this hand. You've got 10 clean outs to make a straight, and two streets for them to come. And you know where three of the spades are - and probably can figure out where another of the four are (opponent's hands). You have 10 clean outs compared to your opponents - who if they're both drawing to a flush - only have 6 outs.
But of course, somebody could have flopped a set or a straight, which is exactly why this game looks super fun. I'd probably call, but I think I'm more a gambler than you - and less a winning player. =P
No you don't have 10 clean outs..not multiway, not normally. If both villains get in what will they have? it's a short list... flush draws, made straights, good straight draws, sets and combinations of the above
. We can talk about if they should or should not be getting it in with the above hands, but that's irrelevant when talking about a maniac who will every time.
Let's look at our outs for a straight:
So a 17 card straight wrap. I will pretty much guarantee you that one of the two villains has spades. So off the top we must take any spade outs away so that's 4 cards (we have the J of spades). That gives us 13 outs.
It should also be noted that a ten does not give us a nut straight, so those outs must be discounted.. so let's split the difference and take one away for that.
It's very very reasonable to assume that one or both villains will have a made straight or a straight draw or at least
a couple of our needed outs in their hands. For example the maniac is stacking 67xx and quite possibly any OESD here. We have to assign an imperfect number so I'm going to call it 2 outs gone due to this and it well could be 3 or 4. Say the maniac has 67xx and the other guy has at least one random 6, 7, T, J, or Q...there's 3 of our outs gone.
Also...even if we MAKE our straight... we could still lose to a flush and we will fairly often chop with someone who just made the same straight. I can't stress this enough..the fairly high possibility of chopping even when we make our hand hugely hurts our equity.
Also...what if the board pairs? You can expect say 99xx or 88xx (especially from the maniac) to stack off here.
So... 10 is a very optimistic estimate of clean outs is. HOWEVER we have to dodge a whole lot of cards and some of those 10 outs often result in a chop instead of a win. This situation isn't near as good as it looks at first.