$25 NLHEFull Ring: $: .25 Rush Table: Is J high flush strong enough to raise river for value?

Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
$25 NLHEFull Ring: $: .25 Rush Table: Is J high flush strong enough to raise river for value?

In this recent .25 Rush hand at Full Tilt I raised pf and followed up with 2 barrels before the out of position caller pots the river obviously representing a Flush. Folding with 2:1 odds is completely out of the question but I'm up in the air as to whether I should raise ai for my last $6 or just call. I'm only ahead of weaker flushes or complete bluffs. The Full House is a possibility but only a remote one IMO. I certainly could have been flatted PF by 33 or 44 and Aces probably would have reraised. It is unlikely that any of those hands would have flatted the flop allowing me a free card to draw out on them. A stronger pair or a weak ace may have taken this line using the scare card on the river as an opportunity to steal the pot vs a hand like AK or AQ. So what do you think? Are there enough weaker hands in his range to make raising profitable?

Full Tilt - $0.25 NL RUSH - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: $10.96
Hero (UTG+1): $23.48
MP: $27.99
MP+1: $38.54
LP: $20.35
CO: $105.91
BTN: $8.80
SB: $30.42
BB: $12.14

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has Js Ts

UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.90, fold, fold

Flop: ($2.50, 2 players) 3s 4d As
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.50, 2 players) 4c
SB checks, Hero bets $3.00, SB calls $3.00

River: ($11.50, 2 players) 2s
SB bets $11.50, Hero :confused:
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
I fold pre, I'd bet the flop larger, I check back the turn, and I'd raise the river.

1) UTG+1 playing full ring, this seems like a great way to play JTs OOP.
2) Flop is wet, there are lots of good scare cards to bluff on the turn, and your draw is pretty good.
3) The 4c changes nothing, just take the free one.
4) The ace of spades is out, and that really cuts down on the amount of better flushes your opponent can have in his range. I'd expect to see your opponent roll over A5 as often as a bigger flush or a full house.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Total posts
3,904
Chips
0
he's not folding anything he would have bet with for only $6 more, which includes two pair, trips, Ax & wheels I suppose potentially, so I'd definitely jam for value.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
Folding pf is not a bad option either but my PT shows that i'm +EV with this sort of play. I bet the turn because I had a hand with little showdown value and I sensed weakness. There are alot of hands which beat me that might fold including weak aces and small-medium pairs. If I don't catch on the river I probably just check behind. If he bets I might be tempted to raise given his super polarized range. But I do catch the river and I do shove for the extra $6.

River: ($11.50, 2 players) 2<font color='black'>♠</font>
SB bets $11.50, Hero raises to $17.98 and is all-in, SB calls $6.48
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Four Dogs shows [Js Ts] a flush, Ace high
picst12002 shows [9s Ks] a flush, Ace high
picst12002 wins the pot ($45.09) with a flush, Ace high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $47.46 | Rake $2.37

I'm not surprised to see that I'm beat but I think I was ahead of enough of his range to make the shove the right play.
 
Last edited:
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 26, 2007
Total posts
9,218
Chips
0
Folding pf is not a bad option either but my PT shows that i'm +EV with this sort of play.

I'd really like to see that analysis because i have serious doubts about that.

As of your first question, it's really hard to answer without knowing what kind of fish villain is. Don't you have stats on him? VPIP and aggression mostly.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
This was a Rush table, I had no information on him. I''d be happy to discuss EP raises with you. What is it you want to know?
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 13, 2005
Total posts
4,298
Awards
1
Chips
17
I'd really like to see that analysis because i have serious doubts about that.
It all depends on how I filter it but I have raised behind 1 limper from 4 or more off the button at a full ring table 763 times. I have a win rate of 56% for 25.22BB/100 (Big Bets not Big Blinds). Of course I've done better with some hands than others and with JTs specifically I'm only 44% for -373.44BB/100 but there are only 9 occurrences including that hand which certainly took a big toll. For that matter I'm also behind by 345BB/100 with AQs. I'm up 710BB/100 in 12 occurrences with QJo. Over all I'm comfortable raising in this position with certain hands and feel confident in my ability to get away from bad situations. I am representing a strong hand and will usually take it down either preflop or with a continuation bet. Of course if someone comes in behind me I am much more cautious.
 
Full Flush Poker
Top