$25 NLHE6-max: Can I fold KK here

B

baudib1

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/16/1.5

Villain 20/16/1.5 over about 60 hands. Never seen him get out of line or put $9 into a pot at once.
My hand might be under-repped, but I wanted to flat call the donk in the blinds and just get it in against him on the turn.
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($9)
UTG+1 ($29.26)
Hero (CO) ($28.30)
BTN ($26.49)
SB ($28.50)
BB ($14.26)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO K:spade: K:club:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, BTN calls $0.85, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60

Flop: J:diamond: Q:club: 9:club: ($2.65, 3 players)
BB bets $3.48, Hero calls $3.48, BTN raises to $9
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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What does BB do before we act?
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Well, if villain raises with draws, there are so many draws on this board that playing for stacks is good here and we should just get it in, even if we do get it in bad against sets - especially since sets are unlikely as QQ and maybe JJ would have 3bet preflop - two pairs and KJ. If you stove your hand against a range with those, suited aces, combo draws and a few JT,T9 hands, you're a bit better than 50/50 versus that range. Part of this good equity comes from the fact you're only a 60/40 dog against 2 pairs.

Now does he raise draws here? On one hand, a 20/16 is the kind of player who will often play draws aggressively. On the other hand, having position and the pot being 3 handed, he would probably be better off playing it more passively. But does a 25nl player take that into account?

Also, pot odds are not too bad. A shove costs us another $22.16 in order to win $53.73 (95% of $56.56), so even if we have no fold equity, we only need 41% equity to make this +EV.

So I probably just shove.
 
KardKlub

KardKlub

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on such a wet board, im not sure why you just call on the flop.
If you raised then got jammed on then it makes it an even easier call.
 
T

TorreyB

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The line I would have taken on that flop if I was the hero is to raise the BB bet to 7.50. If you're beat or there's a high a chance of it on the wet flop the button will most likely shove, so if that happens you'll have to reevaluate your decision to shove or fold. Pretty sure I'd be shoving almost any turn card if he called my raise.
 
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