$25 NLHE6-max: Guess this is a standard spot to fold TPTK

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 24/17/1.7

but he's repping approximately 4 combos (4s full, quads).

Villain has been aggressive but not donkish, haven't seen him show down any hands that he seriously overplayed. He had 3-bet me a ton this game but seemed to be doing this with value hands, I was surprised when he flatted in the SB so I put him on medium connectors (JT type stuff) and small pairs and suited aces.

Looking at this away from the table it seems like I should call. He never ever has JJ+ here. But his turn sizing + river sizing make me want to puke. It's like he doesn't want to lose me on the turn and doesn't expect me to fold on the river, so I ruled out busted FDs.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($17.25)
Hero (CO) ($75.05)
BTN ($25)
SB ($40.27)
BB ($25.25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is CO A:club: J:diamond:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: J:club: 2:heart: 4:heart: ($1.75, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB raises to $3.96, Hero calls $2.71

Turn: 2:spade: ($9.67, 2 players)
SB bets $5.88, Hero calls $5.88

River: 9:club: ($21.43, 2 players)
SB bets $14, Hero folds

I would guess PP 4. I'm dont think he's calling with anything that would make 2 pair. Either way, I doubt your hand is good anymore.

You need to make your decision on the flop Sir. Otherwise what happens is you lose $6.50 or approximately 1/4 of your stack calling down only to fold to a river brick.

Nothing changed on the board from flop to river, so decide on the flop...this guy is capable of bluffing / vbetting (in his mind) a worse J enough times that I can call down, so call down to showdown. Especially with the bricks.

Or if you decide it's a standard set raise etc. more often than not, fold the flop.

Personally I think you should fold the flop based on your reads, but the main point is don't burn money by calling in the hope he doesn't bet again, and then fold

I realize you're probably right but doesn't his range narrow on each street? On the flop, he still has flush draws.

If I'm calling the flop, I'm shipping that turn. There's really no reason to do anything else. He's repping AJ, combo draws, and sets when he raises the flop, and the turn takes out a bunch of those combos of sets and makes Jh not an out for the big draws. So by shoving we get the max in the pot against the semi-bluffing combo draws before they hit.

So essentially your decision is on the flop. I don't think a 24/17/1.7 is all that aggressive, and thus I'd just give up once he check/raises us.

Crap, I just said exactly what ComplexPlaya said.

baudib1 said:

I realize you're probably right but doesn't his range narrow on each street? On the flop, he still has flush draws.

Click to expand...

I don't know, does it? Do you know how much it narrows or how? If you had 20k hands on villain betting the turn 60% of the time and the river 10% (or the other extreme) you might have a reason to call down.

If you look by the 'standard' tag play @ 25nl, I definitely think it doesn't narrow enough to call 2 barrels and fold to a third.

c9h13no3 said:

Crap, I just said exactly what ComplexPlaya said.

Click to expand...

lol c9. Thanks for that actually, that makes me think I've made some progress in understanding the game. Now if only there was no tilt...

don't get me wrong, I think the turn call is bad for sure.

Range: AJ, sets, big draws. Having AJ in there doesn't affect our equity much anyways, so its kinda irrelevant.

Board: Jc 2h 4h
38.2% { AcJd }
61.8% { 44, 22, AhQh, AJs, AhTh, Ah5h, Ah3h, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, AJo }

For the flop to be a call, there has to be a lot of pure air or worse jacks in villain's range.

Board: Jc 2h 4h 2s
52.1% { AcJd }
47.9% { 44, 22, AhQh, AJs, AhTh, Ah5h, Ah3h, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, Th9h, AJo }

Once you get to the turn, with the amount of $ in the pot, ship it.

I dont think he had a set.

The whole point of wanting to raise with a set is to play for stacks. It didnt look to me like he was betting a set on turn and river.

weird spot man, really. i think it all comes down to what he thinks about you, since you have a huge history and what you know about him. but come to think about it, the guy is betting out of position on you on the turn and river. however i stick to my original reaction when i saw the check raise on the flop, which would be to fold.

but if i was playing, i would have made the call, because it is so much easier reading and making a decision rather than playing and making it at that time. if i called the flop as you did, i would have to shove the turn, especially because it did not complete the flush draw which he might have.