$25 NLHE6-max: 99 in 4-bet pot vs. 3-bet monkey

Comments on all streets welcome.

Villain has 3-bet % of 15 over 50 hands. including 2 of 5 times in SB
His 3-bet range is going to look something like all pairs, all broadways, quite a bit of Axs.
This is a solid 4-bet for value and i don't think he's folding much if i 4-bet small, we can own him postflop. He doesn't 5-bet so I remove QQ+/AK from his range.

Checking back flop may be bad, but it's pretty dry, he bets turn 100% in limited sample when flop goes check-check. Turn is great card as even if I'm behind I have 4-6 outs.

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($41.66)
UTG+1 ($25.35)
Hero (CO) ($37.30)
BTN ($8.70)
SB ($25.75)
BB ($50.53)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO 9:diamond: 9:club:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, SB raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.25, SB calls $3.25

Flop: J:diamond: 7:spade: 2:diamond: ($12.75, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: 8:club: ($12.75, 2 players)
SB bets $6.50, Hero goes all-in $31.05

Board: Jd 2d 7s 8c
Dead:

Estimate:
Board: Jd 2d 7s 8c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.416% 36.80% 00.62% 2202 37.00 { JJ-22, AQs-A7s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-ATo, KQo }
Hand 1: 62.584% 61.97% 00.62% 3708 37.00 { 9c9d }

Im curious as to why you say he is a 3bet monkey?

If you have 50 hands on him and his 3bet is 15 that should only be those 2 3bets from the SB, no?


I think its way to easy for him to run hot over this small sample.

I should mention that he flatted KK in the BB vs. my button raise over a limper in a previous hand. Makes me think his 3-betting range OOP is a lot of air and not many value hands.

baudib1 said:

Villain has 3-bet % of 15 over 50 hands. including 2 of 5 times in SB
His 3-bet range is going to look something like all pairs, all broadways, quite a bit of Axs.

Click to expand...

I dunno how solid of a value bet this is considering a lot of his hands have decent equity against ours. The advantage comes from the fact that we are the aggressor now, have position, and should have a pretty good chance to take down the pot with a c-bet. 50 hands really isn't a great sample size, but it is kinda high and you say he's been acting donk-like.


Final thought: I have no idea what the turn push is accomplishing, please explain.

baudib1 said:

Estimate:
Board: Jd 2d 7s 8c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.416% 36.80% 00.62% 2202 37.00 { JJ-22, AQs-A7s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-ATo, KQo }
Hand 1: 62.584% 61.97% 00.62% 3708 37.00 { 9c9d }

Click to expand...

Is this the range you put him on by the turn, after he bets, or after you raise all-in?

value/protection, we're ahead of his range and it's less than a pot-size raise.

there's not much difference between calling and shoving so shoving seems best if he has any sort of equity against us (he usually does).

Likminutz said:

Is this the range you put him on by the turn, after he bets, or after you raise all-in?

Click to expand...

that's what i figure his preflop flatting range is, and he's betting about 100% of it on the turn imo.

Honestly I still think I go with the c-bet on the flop most of the time. Our hand is still vulnerable even if the flop is semi-dry. A good amount of turn cards can make our decisions much more complex, so I don't think it's all that bad of a result when we take it down on the flop.

I know the c-bet isn't the fanciest play and isn't even some amazing new concept, but for whatever reason it still works a really good amount of the time.

ya that's cool. what's your standard play in 4-bet pots on flops like this?

I also think you do need to cbet to protect your hand mainly, if a card over 10 gets there on the turn you have no idea if you're ahead or behind when he bets.

As played I like your shoving, assuming he does call you with worse which only you can know

I'm not sure why you want to inflate the pot pre with a hand with mainly 2 outs. Also what does 4 betting small accomplish? Your still confused as what to do when overs fall, even more now you have invested more money and your not really sure where your at.

As played not chatting is a massive mistake in an inflated pot. As mentioned you have the lead.

KardKlub said:

I'm not sure why you want to inflate the pot pre with a hand with mainly 2 outs. Also what does 4 betting small accomplish? Your still confused as what to do when overs fall, even more now you have invested more money and your not really sure where your at.

As played not chatting is a massive mistake in an inflated pot. As mentioned you have the lead.

Click to expand...

Really, I've always heard that talking during the hand = the nutz!

Oh yeah and I agree, chat the flop.

I've been trying to edit that for 5 mins. Lol damn I phone'!

KardKlub said:

I've been trying to edit that for 5 mins. Lol damn I phone'!

Click to expand...

Glad I saw it before you got the chance. Made me lol.

i dont think the read is really very good. even though you said hes been playing donkish, its only 50 hands, and I think donks are more likely to be doing stupid shit/tilt/justspazout. i think calling him a 3bet monkey is pretty strong over only 50 hands.

Definitely a fair point on the sample size, but given my observations (which I failed to include originally) he has almost no value hands in his 3-bet range.

I find this pretty common in my games, where people are 3-betting 20% OOP vs. CO/BTN raisers (2.6% in position) and their range is super absurd, like AK, 22-88 and 34s-JTs and they don't know how to adjust to wider 4-bet ranges.