$25 NLHE Top pair, Ace on river

What's the best play on this river and why?

Pot is $6.35 and opponent has $2.15 left.

Texas Hold'em $0.25-$0.50 NL (real money), hand #233,155,770
Table Pine bluff, 23 Apr 2007 10:28 PM ET

Seat 1: erges ($11.60 in chips)
Seat 2: yaglourt ($23.00 in chips)
Seat 3: Bombjack_x [ [10D],[KC] ] ($44.80 in chips)
Seat 4: NinetyTing ($23.45 in chips)
Seat 5: Circle of 13 ($25.85 in chips)
Seat 6: Danissel ($53.15 in chips)
Seat 7: dc2u ($19.05 in chips)
Seat 8: xkepakkox ($5.20 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
yaglourt posts blind ($0.15), Bombjack_x posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
NinetyTing folds, Circle of 13 folds, Danissel folds, dc2u folds, xkepakkox calls $0.25, erges folds, yaglourt calls $0.10, Bombjack_x checks.

FLOP [board cards 2C,10H,3C ]
yaglourt checks, Bombjack_x bets $0.80, xkepakkox calls $0.80, yaglourt folds.

TURN [board cards 2C,10H,3C,6S ]
Bombjack_x bets $2, xkepakkox calls $2.

RIVER [board cards 2C,10H,3C,6S,AH ]
Bombjack_x...

It looks to me that he was probably on a draw, but we can't be sure that river didn't help him. As to the what and why that you ask, since he only has $2.15 left I really don't know what to say. If you bet $2.15 he'll call if he has you beat; if you bet less, say like $1, (which wouldn't make sense since you bet $2 on the turn), and he reraises all-in, it means you are probably beat but you'll have to look at it because pot is giving you 7 to 1. If you check, he might think he can get you to fold by going all-in, so you won't know if he has it or not because you showed weakness and now you'll have to call to make sure. I really don't know what to say here. If he had a stack like yours you should bet there, and if he raises you should seriously consider folding depending on player, but with his stack I really don't know what to say.

Check-call.

Obv not folding if he bets out here, but I don't see any reason to bet out here. It's not like you're afraid of him pushing over the top of you about $10 or something here. Any reads? Why is he so short stacked? You could easily bet out here if you know he's prone to chase flushes.

Actually, I changed my mind. Just bet out. I say this now, because of his chip stack and the fact that he only has $2.15 left. If you check, and he has nothing or even a pair of 3s or a pair of 6s, he's not throwing it all in, because he knows you'd be pot committed to call--so with a 6 or a 3 here, he would just check and you would lose value. Now if you check and he bets out trying to represent A-10 or even Ax-flush draw, 2 pair, ect, you're not going to fold at the river here to that bet are you?

With the way you played this hand, I changed my mind from my original answer, I would bet out here and put him all in. I don't know if he just lost a huge pot, which is why he's short stack, or if he just bought in low, but he's pot committed as well. If he does have a pair of 3s or 6s here, he's going to call you putting him all-in, no quesiton about it. So the right play, the only play I think, is to put him all-in, and this is only because of his chip stack. If he had a bigger chip stack it would be a different story, but because of his chip stack, easy play of just pushing him in here.

Okay, let's just accept that we're going to lose the rest of the money if he has an A or better. If we bet it, he's going to call. If we check, he's going to push, and we have to call because he could have a busted draw.

It basically comes down to if you think a busted draw will shove and is more likely than a T or pair 77-99 (unlikely because of no raise PF but possible).

I think it's pretty likely he would just give up with a busted draw... you'd be getting ridiculously good odds to call, and a lot of players at this limit aren't the type to bluff with a busted draw anyway. They try to hit it and shut down when they don't. You bet the flop and turn and he just doesn't have the stack to bluff you out with any rate of success at all, if he's even the type of player who would to begin with.

So just bet out and get value out of a weaker T, sometimes 77-99. If he can beat your hand, the money was going in either way.

Bombjack said:

What's the best play on this river and why?

Click to expand...

Checking is out of the question for me since it takes away my opponent's most likely mistake: calling with a worse hand. It also allows him to - likely profitably - bluff. An ace-high flush draw is definitely a possible holding for him, so while check/folding might be okay in an isolated event, it's really awful for your image. If you care about such things. Besides, there are only three aces left in the deck. Chances are decently slim that he has one of them.

So with checking being so sucky, only option is to bet. How much? Enough to make him call with QT, but not so much that you hate life if you're raised. Around 1/3rd of the pot ought to do the trick. You won't get called by busted flush draws unless they're specifically of the ace-high variety, and if he raises you, all that remains is to instantly fold.

Betting and calling a raise is lunacy.

edit: And now I notice that he's shortstacked. Yeah, just put him all-in, then.

So 3 votes for putting him in. Good, because that's what I did, since I probably wasn't folding and I could get value from a worse 10, which I thought was his most likely holding. Turned out this time he had [ac][jc], but never mind. It did cross my mind to just shove on him on the turn, but I'm not sure if I'd get best value from that?

Nah, you're bet on the turn was right. Pot was $2.35 and you bet $2.00, enough to not give a flush draw correct odds. In this specific case he also had 2 overcards, which he could've (correctly it turns out) counted as outs, giving him 15 of them. So he had the correct odds to call actually even w/o counting implied odds for his remaining chip stack.

Still though, I think your bet was fine, because its kind of hard to put him on AJs since he limped from LP, so its hard to figure him on 15 outs. The $2.00 bet gave him incorrect odds for a flush draw, even counting implied odds. Having only $2.15 left he's getting 3 to 1 at best which is not enough for the plain flush draw and that was your goal.