$25 NLHE Full Ring: What is going on here!

I timed out on the turn after thinking about the hand... dont know if this was good or not. Only 300 hands on reg but pretty sure hes a 2p2-type 13/11 ish

Cant see bottom set being good here? Cant imagine him having better sets as they would raise on the flop surely, so only thing i can think of is that he cold called with some type of SC'er? I think i would of folded anyways if i didnt time out.

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1631689
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): $25.00
CO: $23.15
BTN: $25.75
SB: $25.00
BB: $30.13
UTG: $26.61
UTG+1: $10.40
MP1: $26.14

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP2 with 2 :heart: 2 :diamond:
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BTN calls $1, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.35) 9 :club: 2 :club: 5 :club: (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3, MP1 folds

Turn: ($9.35) Q :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, BTN raises to $21.75 all in, Hero folds

I'd call and laugh at whatever he has.

Your nice round stack, did you just sit down, or top off?

clubbed flop, set 2's...... Sticky situation at any stakes,

I think I'll go with baudib, any I'm not even a ring guy. Call and laugh, or cry.......

Thing is, why would he make such a bet? 87/76 clubs would do it to discourage the A club from playing, Or the A clubs might do it on the draw. Of course the 99 or 55 might do it, but less likely seeing that club board. All the top pairs might do it to discourage draws.

If he has the nut or near nut flush, how likely is it that he would put you on a set, thus with a boat draw?

I call, unhappily.....and laugh at whatever he shows.

Don't fold sets.

Argh im struggling here, it feels so sick to fold sets but i really can't see nitty tags getting out of line here especially on this board!

Then again, does this sound like a legit reason i should of called?

- cold called suited connectors would raise the flop (being scared of me holding Q,K,A of clubs in my premium pocket pairs)


QQ could be in his range here i think, argh i dont know. I feel like i should of called just to see his damn cards now


There are a few regs that are nitty enough that i could tell when they had a higher set than me, however, doesn't apply here as the only legit set i can put him on would maybe be QQ.

AKs or AQs could also be in his range sometimes.

I folded a set once... and then I woke up to discover it was a dream.

He had AcQh and you would have won because I saw it in the bottom of my cuppa this morning.

I can see how you timed out.
What about Q9s as a possibility?
Hard to believe he would limp with QQ.

How about stone cold bluff thinking you missed and are just barreling now - since he probably put you on big cards before the flop because of your raise?

Nut flush? No - he continues to slow play that. Smaller flush - maybe but that shove would be pretty scary since you are exercising the betting lead.

Hard to fold trips there - for me. But I might have timed out myself. Good job not folding at least

The limper folded

Definitely a difficult spot...but I've come to stand by what everyone seems to say and not folding sets. I don't think the button is flatting with QQ preflop. I could see him calling that flop with two overs with one of them being clubs. AQ/KQ is also in that range. I think I would need to call just to see what he has. (although that thinking has lost be a good amount of money in the past)

Since I never go there, perhaps you could narrow the definition of a
"2p2-type 13/11 ish" player.

This is one of the few hands I look at that stuck with me over night. Seems the number 1 reason villain would make such an outrageous bet is to prevent the drawing hand proper odds, but at that point he can't even do that, u r $14.50 to get into a $37+ pot before the fact, and a $50 pot after the fact.

2nd reason would be to draw in a sucker cuz villian had the nuts. But wouldn't villain go for value with any top club xclub?

3rd reason might be that he holds the Ac xo, and wants to prevent a pair from playing. Or the Q9 with the Qc. This seems to be the most likely scenario IMHO.

odds of him filling the flush in that scenario is about the same as you filling a boat on the river.

2pair would for sure want to prevent the draw.

Still left thinking you just got to go to the bank with a set. Even bottom set.

I'm not so sure he can't have 55/99 either (not saying that it's a reason to fold but everyone seems to be discounting those hands). What type of player was the limp caller? Obviously bad, but what I mean is was he at all aggro postflop? Like does BTN flat here expecting the bad player to raise/shove any FD but fold if BTN raises?

dj11 said:

Since I never go there, perhaps you could narrow the definition of a
"2p2-type 13/11 ish" player.

This is one of the few hands I look at that stuck with me over night. Seems the number 1 reason villain would make such an outrageous bet is to prevent the drawing hand proper odds, but at that point he can't even do that, u r $14.50 to get into a $37+ pot before the fact, and a $50 pot after the fact.

2nd reason would be to draw in a sucker cuz villian had the nuts. But wouldn't villain go for value with any top club xclub?

3rd reason might be that he holds the Ac xo, and wants to prevent a pair from playing. Or the Q9 with the Qc. This seems to be the most likely scenario IMHO.

odds of him filling the flush in that scenario is about the same as you filling a boat on the river.

2pair would for sure want to prevent the draw.

Still left thinking you just got to go to the bank with a set. Even bottom set.

Click to expand...

I think 2 pair is the most unlikely hand here imo, the 13/11 never ever has 2 pair here. I dont think regs are ever flatting A9 here and if they are it's A9s. But i think he's never cold calling A9 here.

I dont think there is anything outrageous about his bet either, just a standard shove to get the money in.

Im still struggling with this myself, when i bet two streets here he has to be putting me on atleast a big overpair or possibly a nut flush draw, and sometimes a set.

I think if he had the nut flush draw or just a flush he would be getting it in here, because he wouldnt want the river to flush and me to check fold, or just me check fold in general with my overpairs - this is why im struggling so much here.

WVHillbilly said:

I'm not so sure he can't have 55/99 either (not saying that it's a reason to fold but everyone seems to be discounting those hands). What type of player was the limp caller? Obviously bad, but what I mean is was he at all aggro postflop? Like does BTN flat here expecting the bad player to raise/shove any FD but fold if BTN raises?

Click to expand...

I agree, 55/99 are 100% going to be in his range for calling pf, maybe he also flatted hoping to avoid a flush card to keep the fish in or to look FOS. I dont like thinking like that though cause it is so standard for regs to raise flops like this with their sets and i dont think id ever want to not raise with a set here. Fish can still call when he raises with overpairs and flush draws...

Limp caller was only over 15 hands but was 45/15 type and i had noted that i think he limp calls and then just folds to c-bets when misses. So BTN wouldnt have any reason to expect him to shove any FD i dont think.

Reg villain is 14/10/3 over 308 hands. 7% 3bet on btn so far so id assume he would 3bet me with QQ here and hope that the loose guy calls it. Id say thats most likely his play for QQ anyways.

Might look through the 300 hands i have on him to see if i can get some proper notes on his play because i dont really have anything over these 300.

Granted, 'outrageous' was a bad term to use.

BTN stats for a 13/11 would be closer to 20/x, maybe even higher. Villains come along flop call, is suspicious. Then, and remember I am not a ring guy, your 2/3's pot bet on the turn adds to villain looking to steal this pot from you. Since you are giving 2p2 players some edge, I think this moves into 3rd level thinking. He's thinking that I'm thinking that he's thinking I have something, but maybe not much. Standard c-bet in his mind.

Range seems to be A/K/Q club based draw with a 9. The 9 covers the comealong calls.
55,99 or any overpair.

But one of the things we all struggle with is when we go set mining, and hit, are we really gonna fold? The flush flop is one of the few flops that can stop a set mining cold in it's tracks. Happens everywhere, ring and tourney.

Moral of this discussion looks headed to ;
Shove when you hit your set. Less value, more certainty, and you don't have to struggle with the decisions.

EDIT: I misread the reg actions so I'll re-read and post later!

Btw... hi acky!

RVladimiro said:

EDIT: I misread the reg actions so I'll re-read and post later!

Btw... hi acky!

Click to expand...

Hi stranger!

RVladimiro said:

I rarely fold sets but in this case I would happily fold. I've seen the limp/call preflop behavior with small pairs done by tight (yet passive) players over and over again. I'd call some dumb aggro fish though, but tight... passive... nah, it's a fold I tell ya!

55 99 hits his range perfectly with that preflop action much more than some weird AXc QXc which have us beat anyway... I would think that a tight and passive player would not shove 2 pair here though so I really can't imagine us beating anything.

I know this is a higher limit than I use to play and maybe these behaviors mean something else but that's how I see it.

Btw... hi acky!

Click to expand...

Villain in this hand did NOT limp/call. The limp/caller folded to the flop bet. Villain also never has a TP hand here unless it's exactly AcQx or KcQx. 55/99 are certainly possible preflop but with acky's description of the actual limp/caller they'll almost always raise the flop. He has maybe 2 or three made flushes in his likely preflop range and the 4 combos of AcQx/KcQx that remain. That's basically the list.

BTW I call.

acky100 said:

The limper folded

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Oops thats right - okay then flatting with QQ? Nah

That sounds like a good analysis. Do you think he would take this line with KcQx though? I suppose he could fold out JJ and maybe TT. Leaning towards calling now if he's maybe capable of doing this with Draws.

MediaBLITZ said:

Oops thats right - okay then flatting with QQ? Nah

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Yeah i think it's unlikely he doesnt 3bet QQ

Well one big assumption is he is just playing his cards. What changes if he is just playing you? Not capable of that?

MediaBLITZ said:

Well one big assumption is he is just playing his cards. What changes if he is just playing you? Not capable of that?

Click to expand...

If Villain is good enough to think of this level he must be trying to work out what you have. You raised pre and so far have fired two pretty big barrels which is a good sign of strength. He must be thinking at least overpairs, sets, flushes, paid w/ NFD. If villain is just going to raise so you only have to call $15 more to win $37 with a pure bluff to get you off a pretty strong range you're repping, he's pretty stupid and not smart enough to think at this level.

Therefore I think he's playing his cards.

acky100 said:

That sounds like a good analysis. Do you think he would take this line with KcQx though? I suppose he could fold out JJ and maybe TT. Leaning towards calling now if he's maybe capable of doing this with Draws.

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Yeah TP+FD and I'd probably take his line too. Not sure what you mean by folding out JJ/TT though.

I fold. We're looking at a flush or higher set all the time here.

2.5 to 1 with 3.5 to 1 odds vs a flush draw looks very nice on the surface. But we're up against a nit. His flushes will be far and few between {AcKc, AcQc, KcQc} at best. His sets are {QQ,99,55} they are more numerous and have us drawing dead. Sure the flop discounts them some what but not completly, he had someone to act behind him, a valid reason to just call especially if MP was a fish!

Flushes = ~3combos
Sets = ~9 combos * discount

Discount them all you want, heck get rid of them completly and we still don;t have odds. This nit is bluffing so incredibly rarely here.

WVHillbilly said:

Yeah TP+FD and I'd probably take his line too. Not sure what you mean by folding out JJ/TT though.

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Right why do you take this line in his shoes with TP+FD? Is this because you expect to have a good enough chunk of fold equity? I cant imagine him feeling like he has fold equity considering the way i played it (even though i folded :/ ) Oh ignore folding JJ/TT part i was confused, he wouldnt want us to fold them with a Q!