$25 NLHE Full Ring: Weird line by (fairly) passive villain

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orangepeeleo

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 31/17/1

poker stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1776269
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $65.51
BB: $33.44
UTG: $11.90
UTG+1: $27.23
MP1: $36.02
MP2: $5.61
CO: $18.13
Hero (BTN): $26.12

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Q :diamond: Q :spade:
4 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, SB calls $1.15, 1 fold, CO calls $1

Flop: ($4.00) T :heart: J :spade: 2 :club: (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $3.00, SB calls $3, CO folds

Turn: ($10.00) 4 :spade: (2 players)
SB bets $4.00, Hero calls $4

River: ($18.00) K :heart: (2 players)
SB bets $6.00, Hero calls $6

We have 158 hands on the villain, have only 1 instance of him facing a steal in SB, but in BB he folds to steal 88%. Not sure how many hands we had at the time though.

His donk ott kinda threw me, although thinking about it now, a set does the regular c/r turn line. The the river sucks and makes me wish I'd raised the turn, do we still have s/d value there or is his line beating us too much.

C/c flop and then donk the turn was just pretty weird and because he was on the passive side I elected to just see if I could get a cheap S/D.
 
T

TheBowlBoy

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When I see villains take this sort of line its usually always Tx, Jx, or a draw. I'm happily shoving this turn as he'll probably stack off with Jx, maybe some Tx, KQ, 89, and Q9. Its quite possible he turned a flush draw as well so all the more reason to shove for value.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Pump up the turn. I play the river the same.
 
sam1chips

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TheBowlBoy said:
When I see villains take this sort of line its usually always Tx, Jx, or a draw. I'm happily shoving this turn as he'll probably stack off with Jx, maybe some Tx, KQ, 89, and Q9. Its quite possible he turned a flush draw as well so all the more reason to shove for value.
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Absolutely, or AT suited even, where he has both straight and flush draws going into the river. The only problem is that you say he is tight, so it is an unusualy play to try to steal it on the river. Although he bets after the turn as well, which leads me to believe he probably didn't hit a K on the river. If you're gonna give him credit for a hand, then JT possibly? Hitting 2 pair on the flop. I would still call the river bet though
 
bgomez89

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Yeah I like raising the turn too
 
Deco

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Min raise turn shove brick rivers. Boards very wet and this line is generally pretty weak (medicore value or draws) even from a passive player.

Don't hate it as played either but defo think this is more EV+ to stack.
 
T

TheBowlBoy

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Deco said:
Min raise turn shove brick rivers. Boards very wet and this line is generally pretty weak (medicore value or draws) even from a passive player.

Don't hate it as played either but defo think this is more EV+ to stack.
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If we're assuming (correctly) that villain has a decent amount of straight draws, turned flush draws with stuff like Ts9s in his range, why would we ever want to minraise the turn?

SB's donk on the turn makes the pot $14 and we have like $20 behind so shoving would basically be a bit more than a pot sized raise here.

The way to make money off of draws is to shovel money into the pot on the flop and turn because they're just going to c/f the river when they miss and shove or trap when they hit.
 
Deco

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TheBowlBoy said:
If we're assuming (correctly) that villain has a decent amount of straight draws, turned flush draws with stuff like Ts9s in his range, why would we ever want to minraise the turn?
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Because villains range is mostly made up of non-draws I'm not willing to scare off to take the pot down now.
KQ/89/Ts9s/KsTs/AsTs+ = 27 combos
AJ/KJ/QJ/J9 = 42 combos (we could add a few Tx hands in here)

Villain calling $4 into a $22 pot is just about 5 to 1. Without implied odds his call is almost EV neutral. Letting him stay in the hand with his straight draws is not a disaster even when isolated to just draws, it may even be offset if he choose to come along with some gutshots given the price although the implied odds for hitting his 7s (Aces have 0 implied odds imo) will likely make it a mildly EV+ call for him on average. (as opposed to a neutral fold)

Meanwhile we get to stack his more dominant Jx range more often. I don't hate shoving seeing as villains a fish but even a fish will mostly fold most his straiught draws here and many of his Jx hands. I believe the minraise will extract more value at the acceptable cost of greater variance.
 
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BlueNowhere

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Deco said:
Because villains range is mostly made up of non-draws I'm not willing to scare off to take the pot down now.
KQ/89/Ts9s/KsTs/AsTs+ = 27 combos
AJ/KJ/QJ/J9 = 42 combos (we could add a few Tx hands in here)

Villain calling $4 into a $22 pot is just about 5 to 1. Without implied odds his call is almost EV neutral. Letting him stay in the hand with his straight draws is not a disaster even when isolated to just draws, it may even be offset if he choose to come along with some gutshots given the price although the implied odds for hitting his 7s (Aces have 0 implied odds imo) will likely make it a mildly EV+ call for him on average. (as opposed to a neutral fold)

Meanwhile we get to stack his more dominant Jx range more often. I don't hate shoving seeing as villains a fish but even a fish will mostly fold most his straiught draws here and many of his Jx hands. I believe the minraise will extract more value at the acceptable cost of greater variance.
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Not that it is important but top one has 28 combos I think. 16 of 89, 8 of KQ and 4 of the FD combos.
 
Deco

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BlueNowhere said:
Not that it is important but top one has 28 combos I think. 16 of 89, 8 of KQ and 4 of the FD combos.
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3FD...... I think
JsTs and QsTs aren't possible as we hold the Qs and Js is on the board. We could always make a case for Ts8s or 7s8s as villains a fish. Main thing is backdraw flush draws are so much rarer than flopped draws, I think people often treat a JsTsXX turn the same as they would a JsTsX flop.
 
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BlueNowhere

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4 FD in the range you give him. ATss, AKss, T9ss and KTss
 
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baudib1

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You can bet more on JT2 flops. Vs. a tight player I'm not thrilled stacking QQ on a J-high board but this flop hits every range.
 
Deco

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Whoops I shouldn't have put that + on the end. AsKs is probably 3betting pre.
 
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