Originally Posted by TheBowlBoy
If we're assuming (correctly) that villain has a decent amount of straight draws, turned flush draws with stuff like Ts9s in his range, why would we ever want to minraise the turn?
Because villains range is mostly made up of non-draws I'm not willing to scare off to take the pot down now.
KQ/89/Ts9s/KsTs/AsTs+ = 27 combos
AJ/KJ/QJ/J9 = 42 combos (we could add a few Tx hands in here)
Villain calling $4 into a $22 pot is just about 5 to 1. Without implied odds
his call is almost EV neutral. Letting him stay in the hand with his straight draws is not a disaster even when isolated to just draws, it may even be offset if he choose to come along with some gutshots given the price although the implied odds for hitting his 7s (Aces have 0 implied odds imo) will likely make it a mildly EV+ call for him on average. (as opposed to a neutral fold)
Meanwhile we get to stack his more dominant Jx range more often. I don't hate shoving seeing as villains a fish but even a fish will mostly fold most his straiught draws here and many of his Jx hands. I believe the minraise will extract more value at the acceptable cost of greater variance.