$25 NLHE Full Ring: Very complex flop spot, comments welcome

Screen-shotted the play at the point of our decision so you can see the stats.
This hand complicated by being multiway and deep with a big fish.
The story is we open and get flatted by an abc reg in the CO, an aggressive fish squeezes from the SB and gets flatted by the passive BB,
we call and the reg in the CO calls.
The SB leads out and the passive fish shoves, over to us with our big draw and with the reg still to act and the SB fish who is deep still to act.
So what do we do?
How are we ranging them?
My first thought was to shove and I certainly would at 100bb but I'm not so sure here, we have only committed about 9bb so far and we have to beat maybe two other players here.

stats are vpip / pfr / agg% / number of hands
3bet% / fold to 3bet% / cbet%/ fold to cbet% / Steal
EP vpip/ MP vpip/ won hand% / 4 bet% / fold to 4bet%

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $61.46 (245.8 bb) aggressive fish
BB: $21.20 (84.8 bb) passive & fishy
UTG+2: $82.26 (329 bb)
MP1: $12.71 (50.8 bb)
Hero (MP2): $59.19 (236.8 bb)
MP3: $27.48 (109.9 bb)
CO: $25 (100 bb) ABC reg
BTN: $14.43 (57.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K♣ Q♣
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.62, MP3 folds, CO calls $0.62, BTN folds, SB raises to $2.20, BB calls $1.95, Hero calls $1.58, CO calls $1.58

Flop: ($8.80) J♣ T♣ 3♠ (4 players)
SB bets $6.60, BB raises to $19 and is all-in
Hero?

Not have much to add cuz im not really comfortable playing this deep, i definitely would jam at 40-80bb stacks that i usually play but with 200+ im not sure...

posting to see the comments...

Im fairly sure its a jam, we have pretty much the most resilient hand multiway, call/fold is out of the question on the flop, call/call is just allowing him to see another street with parts of his range, that freerolls us a bit, hands that would have called and lost fold turn, hands that would have called and won call turn. so i prefer jam, he is a fish with an absurd 3bet (over a tiny sample so check if he has ever squeezed)

but if he is going to bet/call off hands as weak as AT/AJ this is a pretty clear value jam, even better if he calls with weaker flush draws (bigger ones suck a bit for us but thats ok)

given your reads will he call with Tx hands to a jam.
v a calling range of TT+ J9+ T8s T9+ A5cc+ 98cc 78cc 67cc 68cc we have 63% equity and will still fold out alot of hands that have some equity against us.

thats 15% of hands, so if he 4bets anyway near the clip he has been, then we get folds from him well over half the time. and have good equity in the side pot.

if he folds Tx hands then we still have 62% equity

if he only calls with AJ+ and only nut flush draws then we have 56% equity.

to make this a call in my books we would need him to call with hands that would fold and have us profit from it, or have some kind of edge on later streets with a dry side pot and multiway all in players, which im not convinced even a agg fish messes up that often.

if ignored the other players becasue CO is folding basically always, and we have so much equity v the shove that its a trivial dont fold spot.

thoughts?

Not a complex spot.

We don't have fold equity, because we're already going to showdown. You want more people in the pot to increase the pot odds, however we don't loose much equity when they call (unless they are drawing to an ace high flush draw, which they also aren't folding). Call.

c9h13no3 said:

Not a complex spot.

We don't have fold equity, because we're already going to showdown. You want more people in the pot to increase the pot odds, however we don't loose much equity when they call (unless they are drawing to an ace high flush draw, which they also aren't folding). Call.

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why wouldnt you value bet v the 200+bb fish? shoving wont affect the CO call frequency.

duggs said:

why wouldnt you value bet v the 200+bb fish? shoving wont affect the CO call frequency.

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We don't want the 200+ bb fish to fold, and with ~50% equity, it's not really a value bet.

The only reason you'd shove now is if you thought you were crushing the SB's calling range, and you couldn't get paid when you hit. It's a decent thought, since shoving into an empty side pot is a pretty strong move. But there's so much $ in there, and SB's fishy, I can't see him folding anything.

This is the simple "if you don't have fold equity, at least allow yourself to fold when you whiff" spot.

Well it was a complex spot for me in real time at the table! I agree the CO is so wide he can be ignored but I have so few hands on the SB I was only guessing at what he is capable of folding. I was multitabling and hadnt seen his previous double up hand.
I didn't even consider a 76bb call. the thought of being flatted by the SB whiffing and him putting us all in for around 150bb is too painful. The equity of our hand is only fully established if we see both cards so Id only ever shove.
Using an equity calc and playing with some ranges show our hand as a clear 40+ equity favourite. It looks like a clear shove spot

c9h13no3 said:

We don't want the 200+ bb fish to fold, and with ~50% equity, it's not really a value bet.

The only reason you'd shove now is if you thought you were crushing the SB's calling range, and you couldn't get paid when you hit. It's a decent thought, since shoving into an empty side pot is a pretty strong move. But there's so much $ in there, and SB's fishy, I can't see him folding anything.

This is the simple "if you don't have fold equity, at least allow yourself to fold when you whiff" spot.

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yea that was my thinking, any card that completes us will make it easier to get away from his Jx Tx hands, but if we get the money in earlier then we get stacks.

Figaroo2 said:

I didn't even consider a 76bb call. the thought of being flatted by the SB whiffing and him putting us all in for around 150bb is too painful. The equity of our hand is only fully established if we see both cards so Id only ever shove.
Using an equity calc and playing with some ranges show our hand as a clear 40+ equity favourite. It looks like a clear shove spot

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our equity in the side pot needs to be considered separately, putting money into the main pot is trivial at this point.

Initially I thought shove but calling seems okay too. Good turns for us, (A and 9)give AJ two pair and and 9 still leaves AJ as TPTK. Third club on board may fold out AJ and JT, however SB is fishy and having gotten to the turn, will have a hard time folding to a smaller shove imo. We obviously risk bricking the turn though. Depends how fishy SB is but our shove on the flop will be so huge that he might be able to find folds

One factor and a drawback is that half of the value of the monster draw is the ton of fold equity you have when you shove first and then you can rely on your equity if you get called. Here the side pot hasnt yet started so your FE here achieves nothing other than getting you heads up with what looks like a flip against the BB likely made hand.
I'm actually wondering if a fold is ok here. These guys are fish we can pummel them all day with value bets when we are firmly ahead rather than gambling 250bb effective on basically what is a flip. There is also the tilt aspect to

losing this hand (for me)
Maybe not for others better rolled and mentally stronger but if I lost it to the SB Id be chasing him suboptimally for the rest of the night.
I want to be clear in my mind what is the best EV play here before I take the latter factors into consideration.

folding is lighting money on fire, if he is a fish our equity approaches 63%

its also 210bb eff

Shove and hope one doesnt have A3clubs and the other TTT.

most likely fish has crappy flush draw or maybe JT trying to get everyone to fold

If the Reg folds after you shove, you only need 35% equity against the fish which you clearly have.

If Reg calls not sure how it works with the sidepot but overall you need 38%

rhombus said:

If the Reg folds after you shove, you only need 35% equity against the fish which you clearly have.

If Reg calls not sure how it works with the sidepot but overall you need 38%

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reg calls virtually never, dont worry bout the CO

duggs said:

reg calls virtually never, dont worry bout the CO

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Ok so easy shove needing 35.5%
19/53.4 ~ 0.355

I think call is better than fold for the reason that even if we have a small equity edge on his calling range most of that range is calling when we get there too and we get a free river a lot. We can either take our small equity edge now or play essentially perfect on the turn/river and use our gigantic edge we get when fish make huge mistakes against us.

Simple.

Jam on flop and hopefully this is the monster hand we been waiting for

If you don't know this is a good spot, why are you playing such a high limit?? this is basic poker.


Fold equity?? No I want all callers! MONSTER HAND if everyone folds who cares we are semi bluffing. We win either way by making this play and it's +EV


If your worried about losing this much money, your playing out of your bankroll.... Also make sure with being so deep that if u lost this hand you'd be underrolled for the stake below. And have a knowledge of what % you have compared to ur bankroll and stay under it.

Makes these plays so much easier.

Aces2w1n said:

Simple.

Jam on flop and hopefully this is the monster hand we been waiting for

If you don't know this is a good spot, why are you playing such a high limit?? this is basic poker.


Fold equity?? No I want all callers! MONSTER HAND if everyone folds who cares we are semi bluffing. We win either way by making this play and it's +EV


If your worried about losing this much money, your playing out of your bankroll.... Also make sure with being so deep that if u lost this hand you'd be underrolled for the stake below. And have a knowledge of what % you have compared to ur bankroll and stay under it.

Makes these plays so much easier.

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ugh dude, the two best players in the thread disagreed with me so id hardly say jamming is obviously better than calling.

a miserable win rate to be sure

I've been playing 25nl FR 100bb on Stars for a while with a small win rate.
I'm deliberately playing here as a training ground rather than for profit. If I was just seeking profit I wouldn't play on these Nova Reg infested tables. I do hunt around for a fish or two and this is a good table for this limit with 2 weaker players on it.
I'm sure these tables have got stronger even since I started playing them about 10 months ago. At that time you might have seen a gold level player or two, now there are Platinum and Supernova players everywhere.
If there is a fish on a table the waiting lists can get up to 15-20 players in minutes, they clearly all have table scanner and table ninja enabled and I reckon 95% of the player pool is probably hudded up.
It is difficult to find fish on these tables and very difficult to stack the regs at this level, it often takes quite a while to double your buy in on these tables which is why I'm never in a hurry to gamble flips with fish who tend to do a runner as soon as they win something. My preferred style is to value bet over and over rather than get into big gambles
I have sent off the hand to one of my paid pro coaches for feedback which I will include here before I post the result.
Before the last post I had already made the decision to drop down a level to boost my bankroll a bit more as I only have $600 behind on Stars after some hefty bills had to be paid.

hmm interesting spot I guess, my first thought was shove as a few people mentioned but makes sense to flat and let the fish come along, obv if fish reshoves we are never folding though.

If we just call here and face a blank turn card and fish decides to jam are we folding considering our EV just got cut in half, and if he checks are we jamming or taking the free river card? I'd guess we are checking back in hopes to hit the river since what would fish fold to a blank on turn that we shove that wasn't calling a flop shove?<-- basically in other words, when hack indicates we flat and can basically play the hand perfect what does he mean exactly lol

I'm sure by playing it perfect means bring the math into it in regards to yeah our equity may have been halved but now with the pot 50% larger by fish comming along then we are likely still profitable to stack off on the turn?

BluffMeAllIn said:

If we just call here and face a blank turn card and fish decides to jam are we folding considering our EV just got cut in half

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Thanks for dropping in BD ....This is what I hate about this hand and why I'm not keen on a flat call which has to be 76BB on the flop.

Ok so I know the SB in this hand had AA which along with him having a set is the worse case scenario but allows us to do the maths around the dry side pot. My equity calculator shows us with 49.3% so a flip. What this means is that there is virtually no difference in EV between calling and shoving.
At the point the BB shoves there is 34.4$ in the pot. If both us and the SB call the pot is 72$ and we have 38$ behind.
If we brick the turn and the SB shoves we have 38 to win 110 an easy call with our 30% equity with the river to come so we are never folding.
I'm still waiting for some feedback on the hand before I post the full result of the hand.
If anyone wants to check the math feel free but essentially against AA it doesn't matter if we call or shove. Not sure how it works against wider ranges but has to be better for us in terms of EV.