Originally Posted by Figaroo2
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/15/ 30% agg postflop 400 hands
Here we have the pleasure of hitting a set in position against a player marked as a good agg TAG who flags as an eagle in HM2.
Firstly he check raises big on the turn, do we call or reraise, then he checks the river so what about our river sizing?
Small bet looking to get called and give him the opportunity to shove or just go for value?
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
SB: $19.85 (79.4 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $24.30 (97.2 bb)
MP1: $24.65 (98.6 bb)
MP2: $54.04 (216.2 bb)
Hero (MP3): $29.64 (118.6 bb) showing 21/15/46% agg this session
CO: $28.79 (115.2 bb)
BTN: $28.08 (112.3 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5<font color='red'>♦</font> 5<font color='red'>♥</font>
2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 4 folds
Flop: ($1.85) 5<font color='black'>♠</font> 3<font color='red'>♥</font> 4<font color='black'>♣</font> (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.88, MP2 calls $0.88
Turn: ($3.61) K<font color='black'>♠</font> (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.72, MP2 raises to $6.88, Hero calls $5.16
River: ($17.37) 3<font color='black'>♠</font> (2 players)
In regards to the turn I like the flat. We let him continue with a much wider range and he disguise the strength of our hand (some) allowing him to bluff some rivers. I don't mind either play though, jam or flat. I just think jamming shuts down a chunk of his range that can still give us value on the river.
As for the river, this is a tough decision in terms of extracting maximum value...
His range in this spot is going to be mostly AKo+, KQs, AA, 67s, some other spade combos(QJs JTs) and occasionally KK and A2s.
We are not really worried about KK however, if he has KK well we are just unlucky, so we have the best hand here almost always.
So which do we go with? Small or Jam?
If we bet small to induce what part of his range does he jam on this river after we call his XR on the turn? There are hardly any hands I would expect he turns into a bluff here as he has at least some showdown value most of the time, and the problem is we hardly have any bluffs either.
If we just shove though what does he call with? He may call with his BD flushes as he would expect us to reshove turn often with our sets due to a pretty wet board and perhaps 67.
So if we are betting small... say $6... we need to get called like 3x more often (as we rarely induce) for this to be the most profitable play and I don't actually think we do here, it looks very polarised and actually stronger rather than weak.
For those reasons I think we just jam and hope to get a lose call here.
EDIT: Apologies started responding, got distracted, came back and just carried on typing so forgot this wass full ring, not 6 max... We can probably narrow his range further in that case and remove 67s and A2s from his range. It also polarises us much further to a pair heavy range due to the flat immediately behind. I still think we shove here though....