$25 NLHE Full Ring: turn line

$25 NL HE Full Ring: turn line

preflop is questionable i guess but I felt I have an edge postflop and KQ is way ahead of his HJ range.
flops standard I feel, however he cbets 67 and only doubles 20 which leaves me in a tricky spot on the turn, do I flat here or raise?
I feel he could have a pretty wide range still here, could be doubling draws, weaker 2 pair hands or he could be bet/folding like AQ, AJ, probs even AK, so I have alot of his range beat but the rest still has equity if i decide to call, he may stack his pair + strong draws with like J10,K10,Q10 etc but im not sure of this, thoughts on best turn line here?

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 813148
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $25.25
CO: $25.00
Hero (BTN): $27.94
SB: $24.75
BB: $25.00
UTG: $26.12
UTG+1: $26.93
UTG+2: $9.15
MP1: $51.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Q :club: K :spade:
3 folds, MP1 raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) J :heart: 3 :diamond: Q :heart: (2 players)
MP1 bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35) K :diamond: (2 players)
MP1 bets $3, Hero ?

Raise. Lots of draws in both your range and his. you want to get the money in now.

Edit: preflop stats would be nice to help us put villain on a range.

I'm for a raise . Its a fantastic barelling card for villian as well, the board certainly hits his range and the 20% turn bet would reflect that, might well be giving him a pair+draw.

Pre-flop stats would help.

wtf i put pre in ?

16/14 he is

I'd raise as well for pretty much the same reasons as Belgo.

But what TB says, if villain is typical $25nl I dunno if he recognizes a good barrelling card for him.

And I think flatting preflop is fine, esp if we have confidence post flop with position.

raise size? standard would be 8/9, however since all the draws etc you think 10 or 11 is fine?

On the table, while playing 5 other's I raise to $9.50.

This is one of the main reason's I stopped playing FR, problem is if he decides to shove on us we are in a world of hurt. 6-max players put draws into ranges here, but if he is a FR reg his range is very much weighted, (ie you gotta go do the math yourself, stoving it gives funky best case results) towards sets and A10, you will get other funky AK, worse 2-pair type hands but I would always give them way less credit. /rant/

So as much grief as I will probably get for it, I raise to $9.50 and fold to a shove if its a reg, call if its a random.

yeah which is why i feel raising is weird because a reg even folds out all the hands we beat here and only continues with like A10, KQ, he may even fold KQ.

Why raise? What are we getting action from when we raise? We need VPIP and PFR here I think, PFR from MP1 as well, see what his range is like for opening. I mean, you say your KQ is ahead of his range, so what's his range from that position? Does it include SCs/suited broadways from here? Also, do you have history with this villain? Will he think you're capabale of semi-bluffing a draw here and get the money in with TPTK here? Or will your raise scare him off?

Even though he rarely double-barrels, I agree with Jurn in that we fold out most of what we beat unless we have an aggressive history. Against a standard tight guy here, I'd just be wanting to get to showdown for cheap.

madtom1337 said:

Even though he rarely double-barrels, I agree with Jurn in that we fold out most of what we beat

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a lot of what we beat is draws that still have lots of equity against us. Folding out those by raising is more +EV than simply calling. Obviously is even more +EV when villain calls without the proper odds, but that's something we can't control.

Still, just because we're ahead of villain's hand does not mean we shouldn't be happy when he folds, because unless we have 100% equity in the hand, we gain some money when villain folds.

What's the plan for the river when we get called then? Are we really folding if any heart shows up? My point being, doesn't he still have implied odds to call a turn bet? Th or Ah would be pretty dreadful for us and I'd be folding on those rivers, but apart from those, can we really find a fold on other rivers? If not, shouldn't we be trying to get to SD for as cheap as possible?

Why play a river when you can shove the turn?

Because you're only getting action from sets and straights? And maybe a few other combos... AQdd, AKhh, maybe KT, definitely KThh... I dunno... Just seems like half the time you fold out worse hands, and half the time you get owned by better hands... And the half the time you fold out worse hands you're folding out hands that you have dominated (not even draws) that you could get more value out of on the river...

madtom1337 said:

Because you're only getting action from sets and straights?

Click to expand...

I'm aggro enough that I get action from a lot more than that when i shove here. Obviously if you're a nit that does not apply.