$25 NLHE Full Ring: TPTK on 2 clubs Qxx, face flop reraise

eNTy

eNTy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 22, 2007
Total posts
6,936
Chips
0
$25 NL HE Full Ring: TPTK on 2 clubs Qxx, face flop reraise

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/15/7

133 hands on villain, first time he's raised a cbet.
He's noted as aggro (semi LAG), he 3bet me once with AJos and didn't let go of a J postflop.

What do we do here ?

MP3: $68.43 (273.7 bb)
CO: $25.72 (102.9 bb)
BTN: $30.30 (121.2 bb)
SB: $55.82 (223.3 bb)
BB: $69.92 (279.7 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $25 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $23.72 (94.9 bb)
MP1: $24.10 (96.4 bb)
MP2: $23.15 (92.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q:heart: A:club:
Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, MP3 calls $1, CO folds, BTN calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.35) Q:spade: 2:club: 5:club: (3 players)
Hero bets $2.25, MP3 raises to $7, BTN folds, Hero ??
 
zachvac

zachvac

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Total posts
7,832
Chips
0
I call here, re-evaulate turn and probably cry no matter what happens on the turn because it's gonna suck unless we get a cheap showdown.
 
eNTy

eNTy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 22, 2007
Total posts
6,936
Chips
0
I call here, re-evaulate turn and probably cry no matter what happens on the turn because it's gonna suck unless we get a cheap showdown.

Does it not suck to call here, because we are OOP ?
If turn is safe, and we bet again, and then we get repopped again we're gonna have to fold right.

Is it a mistake to fold ?
 
rileyl

rileyl

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2008
Total posts
477
Chips
0
I would call the flop and c/r all in a non club non king turn.

His range his 22, 55, flush draws, and probably KQ, maybe QJ, and obviously some random air. Raising the flop just causes us to play against the part of his range that we have terrible equity against.

So we call flop and check/jam safe turn maximizing the money we make from the flush draws, air in his range.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
I would call the flop and c/r all in a non club non king turn.

His range his 22, 55, flush draws, and probably KQ, maybe QJ, and obviously some random air. Raising the flop just causes us to play against the part of his range that we have terrible equity against.

So we call flop and check/jam safe turn maximizing the money we make from the flush draws, air in his range.

really? your jamming TPTK here?

I dont think enty that he is raising a draw here or its a bluff raise I never really saw any of that at 25nl. Im more inclined to just dump it because what improves our hand? 2 other Queens and 3 Aces but one being a club so we only really have 4 outs to improve. I wouldnt be surprised to see a set here since the re raise on a two toned board and may scare the villian to flat it and let the flush card hit.

EDIT: plus being OOP sucks

Just my opinion
 
Blazing_Saddler

Blazing_Saddler

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2007
Total posts
214
Chips
0
really? your jamming TPTK here?

I dont think enty that he is raising a draw here or its a bluff raise I never really saw any of that at 25nl. Im more inclined to just dump it because what improves our hand? 2 other Queens and 3 Aces but one being a club so we only really have 4 outs to improve. I wouldnt be surprised to see a set here since the re raise on a two toned board and may scare the villian to flat it and let the flush card hit.

EDIT: plus being OOP sucks

Just my opinion


I play mainly 6 max, so maybe the play is dffierent. However at $25 nl you do see draws raised. You would also see medium pocket pairs raised here with only one over card. Yes I know thats an awful play, but players are bad.

I do agree dumping it is preferable to calling without any plan for the turn, because as you say, the hand isn't going to improve. Even if you hit an Ace or a Queen, what hands are you beating that you aren't already ?

However I like the call, and check raise all in on the turn play against this player. Against a nit I would definitely get out now, but against an aggro player I think you have to give them some rope then ship it. The board is pretty dry other than the flush draw.

I haven't stoved it, but I think if you assigned him a range here, which is certainly more than the two sets he could have, I think you would have some solid equity.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
yeah FR is a totally different game, I never stack off with TPTK 100BBs deep tbh. I would say 20/15 is nearly laggy but I just dont like stacking off here, I will get into some pokerstove and see what I can come up with and post results asap.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
Vs Set

Board: Qs 5c 2c


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 06.919% 06.92% 00.00% 411 0.00 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 93.081% 93.08% 00.00% 5529 0.00 { 55, 22 }

Vs Set + Mid Pairs

Board: Qs 5c 2c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.677% 74.68% 00.00% 22179 0.00 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 25.323% 25.32% 00.00% 7521 0.00 { TT-77, 55, 22 }

Vs Set + SC's

Board: Qs 5c 2c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.048% 27.05% 00.00% 2410 0.00 { AcQh }
Hand 1: 72.952% 72.95% 00.00% 6500 0.00 { 55, 22, Tc9c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c }
 
Blazing_Saddler

Blazing_Saddler

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2007
Total posts
214
Chips
0
yeah FR is a totally different game, I never stack off with TPTK 100BBs deep tbh. I would say 20/15 is nearly laggy but I just dont like stacking off here, I will get into some pokerstove and see what I can come up with and post results asap.


Not often I stack off TPTK in 6 max either. Not unless I have reads they will stack off lighter.
 
eNTy

eNTy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 22, 2007
Total posts
6,936
Chips
0
FWIW I am agreeing with jurn here that the chance I'm ahead is just too small. He could be making a play seeing as I cbet flops like this all the time when I miss and he sees that. But the chance that he's running a big bluff here (that's a substantial raise) and the chance that I'm beat is not looking good for me imo.
 
rileyl

rileyl

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2008
Total posts
477
Chips
0
FWIW I almost guarantee you this guy is raising his flush draws every time on this flop given his aggression factor and the fact that this is a flop you CBet alot just means it's even more likely for him to do it. The only thing you behind is 22 or 55, no two pair combo's are in his range and folding here is super nitty and just not good imo.

The argument of never stacking TP because it's FR is ridiculous. I play FR and I agree that it's often not good to do, but poker is situational and I think given this player and this board and considering his range that calling flop and c/jamming non King non club turns is the most +EV line I can think of.
 
B

bfw0082

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 17, 2009
Total posts
141
Chips
0
I think he hit the set, good to fold here, those flops are tricky for sets, they are disguised well and he got a cheap flop to win a nice sized pot.

No reason to commit here, play some more hands, next time you will hit a set and score a nice pot...

some times losing a little is better than winning a lot ?
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
FWIW I almost guarantee you this guy is raising his flush draws every time on this flop given his aggression factor and the fact that this is a flop you CBet alot just means it's even more likely for him to do it. The only thing you behind is 22 or 55, no two pair combo's are in his range and folding here is super nitty and just not good imo.

The argument of never stacking TP because it's FR is ridiculous. I play FR and I agree that it's often not good to do, but poker is situational and I think given this player and this board and considering his range that calling flop and c/jamming non King non club turns is the most +EV line I can think of.

Totally disagree your just spewing a stack if you do, calling behind 22,55 make sense here and the call behind. I didnt see check/raises of flush draws at 25nl and played over 130k hands there. I think it would be sensible and less variance if you fold there. If you call/jam a non turn club I think its 1)bad 2) high variance, you may bink a 4 card flush but some clubs will fill his boat.

you have 7% equity vs 22, 55 and 27% with 22,55 + some flush draws which you initially put him on in a previous post above

Looks like your just willing to pay off his set because you cant let TPTK go which is a common problem at 25nl and why when you hit sets you get paid off so much.
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

I'm a Taurus
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 7, 2008
Total posts
1,716
Chips
0
Vs. a realistic range :

Board: Qs 2c 5c


equity
Hand 0: 61.611% { AcQh }
Hand 1: 38.389% { JJ, 55, 22, AQs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, KQs, QJs, QcTc, AQo, KQo }



Might be a little wide, but w/e. Point is this guy has a 20% VPIP and a 7 AF at FR. He's gonna be bluff and semibluff raising some times as well as raising some marginal made hands. Call flop and re-evaluate turn, most likely ch/ship non clubs.
 
C

Catishi

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Apr 5, 2009
Total posts
10
Chips
0
I would also call and check-raise all in any turn that is not a club
 
rileyl

rileyl

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2008
Total posts
477
Chips
0
Totally disagree your just spewing a stack if you do, calling behind 22,55 make sense here and the call behind. I didnt see check/raises of flush draws at 25nl and played over 130k hands there. I think it would be sensible and less variance if you fold there. If you call/jam a non turn club I think its 1)bad 2) high variance, you may bink a 4 card flush but some clubs will fill his boat.

you have 7% equity vs 22, 55 and 27% with 22,55 + some flush draws which you initially put him on in a previous post above

Looks like your just willing to pay off his set because you cant let TPTK go which is a common problem at 25nl and why when you hit sets you get paid off so much.

First of all your OBSERVATION that noone c/r flush draws at 25 NL is just retarded. I guarantee a guy like this does or at least raises marginal made hands b/c his aggression factor is sky high. (Meaning he likes to bet/raise more then call thus making raising a flush draw probably the norm for him.) I don't know what level you play now but you are kind of asking to get exploited by thinking that people never semibluff raise. At 25NL it's not a big deal but you still need to recognize what type of villains do it and adjust accordingly

The only thing that makes folding slightly alright (It's still super bad imo) is that we hold the Ace of Clubs which does take out quite a few draws from his range but there are still plenty of Kx club hands and Suited connecting clubs that he flats our raise with.

Dsvw,

That range is a little off b/c off us holding Ac but still it shows the point and I agree about c/shipping non club turns.

I think a better question is what we do on a non club King turn?
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
First of all your OBSERVATION that noone c/r flush draws at 25 NL is just retarded. I guarantee a guy like this does or at least raises marginal made hands b/c his aggression factor is sky high. (Meaning he likes to bet/raise more then call thus making raising a flush draw probably the norm for him.) I don't know what level you play now but you are kind of asking to get exploited by thinking that people never semibluff raise. At 25NL it's not a big deal but you still need to recognize what type of villains do it and adjust accordingly

The only thing that makes folding slightly alright (It's still super bad imo) is that we hold the Ace of Clubs which does take out quite a few draws from his range but there are still plenty of Kx club hands and Suited connecting clubs that he flats our raise with.

Dsvw,

That range is a little off b/c off us holding Ac but still it shows the point and I agree about c/shipping non club turns.

I think a better question is what we do on a non club King turn?

How many hands you played at 25nl? I personally havent experienced it as IMO most players at 25nl like to check drawing hands. Just dont see how shipping a TPTK is a goot play IMO.

Im now at 50nl and find it common for players to re raise draws especially OOP as it sucks to draw OOP.
 
Blazing_Saddler

Blazing_Saddler

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2007
Total posts
214
Chips
0
FWIW I almost guarantee you this guy is raising his flush draws every time on this flop given his aggression factor and the fact that this is a flop you CBet alot just means it's even more likely for him to do it. The only thing you behind is 22 or 55, no two pair combo's are in his range and folding here is super nitty and just not good imo.

The argument of never stacking TP because it's FR is ridiculous. I play FR and I agree that it's often not good to do, but poker is situational and I think given this player and this board and considering his range that calling flop and c/jamming non King non club turns is the most +EV line I can think of.

I agree with that. It isn't the case that we can't fold TPTK, Any half decent player has to be able to do that.

You have to look at the whole range though, not just two hands you think beat you. Looking at that board it is about as dry as it can be other than the flush draw.

If we folded that kind of hand every time you were raised, we would become very easy to play against. I would be raising with air any time I had the chance.

I think folding is fine, but calling and check raising the turn sounds better to me. It is also possible although unlikely that the Villain might check behind on the turn.
 
zachvac

zachvac

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 14, 2007
Total posts
7,832
Chips
0
Does it not suck to call here, because we are OOP ?
If turn is safe, and we bet again, and then we get repopped again we're gonna have to fold right.

Is it a mistake to fold ?

Calling flop and leading turn would be pretty spewy. Definitely checking turn no matter what and depending on turn card and villain action we decide what to do.
 
B

bw07507

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 8, 2007
Total posts
2,219
Chips
0
Folding vs this villain is super weak. I don't care what stakes you play, a 20/15/7 has WAAYYY more in his range than just sets here. I agree with a call, then ch/jam safe turn.
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

I'm a Taurus
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 7, 2008
Total posts
1,716
Chips
0
Dsvw,

That range is a little off b/c off us holding Ac but still it shows the point and I agree about c/shipping non club turns.

I think a better question is what we do on a non club King turn?

Yeah, I noticed that, but w/e. Point still stands. There's a ton of hands in his range we have beat. Updated it below, obv it doesnt change much.

To answer your question, I think we have to fold if the turn is a king and villain bets since it hits quite a bit of his range here (KQ and KcXc). Using the ranges from below, our equity plummets pretty good if the turn is the Ks.


Board: Qs 5c 2c


equity
Hand 0: 61.481% { AcQh }
Hand 1: 38.519% { JJ, 55, 22, AQs, KQs, KcJc, KcTc, QJs, QcTc, 6c5c, AQo, KQo }

Even if I take out my purebluff weighting from JJ, we still have good equity.

Board: Qs 5c 2c

equity
Hand 0: 54.248% { AcQh }
Hand 1: 45.752% { 55, 22, AQs, KQs, KcJc, KcTc, QJs, QcTc, 6c5c, AQo, KQo }
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
Pokerstove doesn't let you use the same card twice, so that first calc is fine even though it looks like AcX is in his range.

I'm curious what kind of flop raise %s you guys see in FR on average from guys like this? 17/14s? 13/9s?
 
eNTy

eNTy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 22, 2007
Total posts
6,936
Chips
0
Pokerstove doesn't let you use the same card twice, so that first calc is fine even though it looks like AcX is in his range.

I'm curious what kind of flop raise %s you guys see in FR on average from guys like this? 17/14s? 13/9s?

I really can't say because the only people i have at least 150+ hands on are TAG regs who have like between 0% and 10% flop reraise I think.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
May 14, 2008
Total posts
6,236
Chips
0
Its an interesting hand guys.

One thing springs to mind though. If you raise AQ in EP and hit a Q high board, surely this is the very hand you were looking to make. Whilst there is the argument that you could be up against a set, you could be up against a flush draw being raised as a semi-bluff or total air figuring you will see it as a set.

It just seems weak to instant fold the very hand you were looking to make PF because there is resistance.

Maybe take AQ out of early range?
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
Yo guys, think im going to have to admit Im wrong here.

I think im giving villians too much credit tbh for hands and always think a raise is a set or the nuts.

fwiw I had a hand like this today which is below.

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BTN: $57.15 (114.3 bb)
SB: $47.60 (95.2 bb)
BB: $50 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $28.15 (56.3 bb)
MP1: $24.55 (49.1 bb)
MP2: $55.20 (110.4 bb)
MP3: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K:diamond: A:heart:
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) K:club: 9:heart: 3:spade: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $7, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($17.25) 4:diamond: (2 players)
BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

River: ($31.25) 4:club: (2 players)
BB bets $10, Hero calls $10

Results:[spoil] $51.25 pot ($2.45 rake)
BB showed Q:diamond: K:spade: (two pairs, Kings and Fours) and lost (-$25.50 net)
Hero showed K:diamond: A:heart: (two pairs, Kings and Fours) and won $48.80 ($23.30 net)
[/spoil]

I think you have to call one street and try and get to showdown cheap as possible but only difference is your OOP which sucks but I think you have to call at least one street now.

Sorry guys but I was wrong
 
Top