$25 NLHE Full Ring: TPGK + FD gets raised on flop OOP

WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/14/4

Villain is taggy reg (17/14/4 1600 hands) who knows I cbet lots.

Merge - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $29.18
Hero (UTG): $25.35
UTG+1: $25.35
MP: $29.61
MP+1: $7.50
CO: $25.75
BTN: $10.00
SB: $28.00

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has Q K

Hero raises to $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.85, 3 players) 4 6 K
Hero bets $1.20, UTG+1 raises to $3.90, Hero ???
 
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baudib1

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Cool spot. I don't know what I'd do, but I doubt it involves folding. Does he flat AK when you raise UTG? Or do you think his 3-bet range is pretty much static?

I don't see him raising KQ/KJ here but for sure he has AQdd, maybe AJdd, and probably some bluffs.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Yeah, not sure about AK. I think he'd 3bet it almost always (6% 3bet overall but mostly from the blinds). I think he can obviously have sets/A high FDs/some middle pairs he's decided to raise with as a bluff
 
JOEBOB69

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Since he is a reg he prob knows how agg you are by now.So if i were you prob raise to ~$9.5 and hope he shoves.
 
JOEBOB69

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Do add do what i'm saying yall are pretty much swapping eq if he has Axd or he has a set..And the dead money makes it +ev.
ummmm Thinking about it after i typed it out if he would fire another barrel on the turn with his air.A c/r shove on the turn might be sexy as hell as long as it isn't a A.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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a reg flatted a UTG raise and raised the flop.

doubt he has any bluffs, especially on Axx/Kxx boards imo.

I expect to see sets a lot of the time here, raising AK for value makes no sense unless he knows you have a wide UTG range..

with the 2nd nut flush draw though we can't fold.. I like to flat and evaluate on the turn, just I hate all turn cards that aren't diamonds really..
 
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baudib1

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This might be a spot to flat and block/donk the turn, not sure though. If he shoves over I guess we have to fold, which sucks.
 
JOEBOB69

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a reg flatted a UTG raise and raised the flop.

doubt he has any bluffs, especially on Axx/Kxx boards imo.

I expect to see sets a lot of the time here, raising AK for value makes no sense unless he knows you have a wide UTG range..


with the 2nd nut flush draw though we can't fold.. I like to flat and evaluate on the turn, just I hate all turn cards that aren't diamonds really..
Any one that played 1600 hands with WV must know he is border line argo monkey for FR.So villains flating range is deff going to be wider vs him.
And to bauidib
Never folding here NEVER.......
 
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baudib1

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Any one that played 1600 hands with WV must know he is border line argo monkey for FR.So villains flating range is deff going to be wider vs him.
And to bauidib
Never folding here NEVER.......

If he shoves over a brick turn we're in bad shape.
 
JOEBOB69

JOEBOB69

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If he shoves over a brick turn we're in bad shape.
????
i was talking about c/r shoveing the turn, if villain would continue...
Because if villain bet turn it would prob be between $6-8
 
dwbrown7680

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I'm re-raising on the flop to $9.50 or so. I put the absolute top of his range into pokerstove and these were the results:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19,800 games 0.006 secs 3,300,000 games/sec

Board: Ks 6d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.020% 40.78% 00.24% 8074 48.00 { KdQd }
Hand 1: 58.980% 58.74% 00.24% 11630 48.00 { AA, 66, 44, AKs, AKo }


---

So we're 41% against the absolute best possible holdings not taking into account anything else he can have here. Raise and call shoves, or raise and shove any turn imo.
 
forsakenone

forsakenone

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in a 6max game I shove this everyday.

but I don't think he has any bluffs in his range, he has a set here, or, something like Ax with 2 diamonds, or TJ J9 of diamonds.

I hate to say it but this is a fold, hard one to do anyway.

unless, he views you as a fish or a maniac.
 
dwbrown7680

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This is never a fold. We're either shipping flop or turn, but either way we're getting money in here.
 
forsakenone

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If we are getting money in it might as well be the freaking flop. If he has a set as I suspect we don't look better on turn if we miss out flush, so if we want to put the money in we should shove here.
 
ALL IN CLUBS

ALL IN CLUBS

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He could flat AK pre also with Agg 4 who knows maybe even KQ or KJ, k10 but we have to assume the worst which would be 666 dam beast.

17 vpip
 
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Jurn8

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yeah seems like an obvious spot to flat AK, AA and KK too. sounds outrageous as there are two K's left in the deck but it can be in his range, the amount of times i've hit TP vs top set :)

I would flat and re evaluate turns, probs donk a diamond turn as I think he has sets, TPs, more often than Axdd .
 
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WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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yeah seems like an obvious spot to flat AK, AA and KK too. sounds outrageous as there are two K's left in the deck but it can be in his range, the amount of times i've hit TP vs top set :)

I would flat and re evaluate turns, probs donk a diamond turn as I think he has sets, TPs, more often than Axdd .
He really only has 1 Axdd hand in his range (AdJd). He's not going to be flatting worse Ax hands preflop (maybe if he were in LP but not from UTG+1).
 
Jurn8

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yeah, so he has more sets, overpairs and TPs :)
 
Deco

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I flat.
Think about what a reg or yourself would flat here UTG vs UTG. It's going to be a super tight range consisting mostly of pocketpairs and very few flushes.

My range in villains shoes pre would be {AK,22-QQ}. I would fold everything on the flop other than {AK, 44, 66} and would never be raising AK. I will have no flush draws!
 
WVHillbilly

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You'd fold TT-QQ on that flop to a standard cbet???
 
TheGenera1

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Interesting spot to be honest, this scenario happened a lot to me yesterday. I think personally this would just be a call. We don't have as many outs as I would like here. K's fill him up, and diamonds are potentially covered by AJd but I think we are still stacking off here if we hit the diamond.

Would be interesting to see the results of this hand, did you fold?
 
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