$25 NLHE Full Ring: Tough turn spot, what to do

Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/13/2.5

poker stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

Hero (SB): $27.91 (111.6 bb)
BB: $25.13 (100.5 bb)
UTG+1: $25 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $30.91 (123.6 bb)
MP2: $30.51 (122 bb)
MP3: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
CO: $25 (100 bb) 17/13/2.5 in 535 hands half decent reg
BTN: $18.02 (72.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q:club: Q:heart:
UTG+1 raises to $0.75, UTG+2 calls $0.75, 3 folds, CO calls $0.75, BTN folds, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, CO calls $3.25

Flop: ($9.75) J:heart: 4:diamond: 5:spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $6.98, CO calls $6.98

Turn: ($23.71) A:diamond: (2 players)
Hero?
Slightly dumbfounded by this call from the villain.
I can't see the ace makes any difference here. What hand with an ace calls the flop?
I can't see any legit hand other than a set of jacks or an unlikely split with QQ, or maybe a truly awfully played KK AA, so do we slow down and check or just shove it in?
The problem is I really can't see what worse calls, but you could say that about the flop.
I suppose he might call the flop with AK/TT if he just thinks I'm barreling AK but that's massively risky. He has enough hands on me to know I'm a solid regular TAG at this level.
 
Delvuter

Delvuter

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AJs is a pre-flop calling hand now that he is in position. Call post-flop with 2 pair would make sense too. I check/fold turn. I have come to learn that one pair simply suck. A's in my pocket do not excite me anymore, I am completely ready to toss pocket pairs that don't set on the flop if something weird starts to happen and from what I can tell, something weird is happening in this hand and AJ could be it.
 
G

gklcap

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I think the only hands you're beating in this spot are TT or a bluff. He seems to be a TAG and I don't think he'd be calling your raise with anything less than AJ+ or TT+. His call on the flop can mean one of few things :
(1) He flopped TPTK
(2) He flopped a set
(3) He has an overpair, which is unlikely since he didn't re-raise you pre-flop. But who knows, maybe he's just in the mood to trap you.
(4) He's calling with 2 overcards, say AQ or AK.
(5) He's floating in order to bluff the turn if an overcard hits. Of course, only you'll know whether he is capable of doing this.

On the flop, you're beating (1), (4) & (5) but when the A hits on the turn, you're only beating (5) and ergo, I think it's a check/fold.
 
J

JKo2theQQ

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OUCH!!. Yes, this really is a rough spot. I definitely think that you played your QQ correctly preflop and on the flop. I would agree with you that he is unlikely to be holding AA or KK. From looking at the villain's stats, I can't imagine him just cold calling the preflop raise and taking a chance on going to the flop 4 or 5 handed with AA/KK. I also disagree with Delvuter about the villain possibly holding AJ. Once you 3bet, he is getting just over 1 to 1 pot odds and that ain't enough to call with AJ, even if he has position. (This is even more true if he knows you to be a TAG). Given all of this, I think he has a fairly narrow range here. Perhaps AK, 66-QQ, and MAYBE AQs. Once we lead out on the flop with a good sized bet and get called, alarm bells would be going off in my head. I think the villain is too tight to float the flop with air so we should assume he has something he likes. Since there are no flush draws on the flop, I think there is a good possibility that we are up against a set. Obviously, if we check the turn, he is likely to bet no matter what he holds so we are basically going to be done with the hand. However, I do think check/fold is the best choice here.
P.S.... This is EXACTLY the way I would have played this hand if I were holding JJ......EXACTLY!!
Good Luck
 
J

JKo2theQQ

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I'm curious to know how it turned out (I know...I know.... We aren't supposed to say)
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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I like check/raising the flop to show supreme power because we are OOP and have OP

I think it's a good barrelling card, If we simply check the Ace we invite Jx hand to take over the hand and run us over, especially if you think he's a decent player.

If he's trapping with overpair himself, note it because we can catch and make back the value he's losing soon enough,
 
IPlay

IPlay

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You are right that it is hard for the A to change much in this hand unless he has AJs exactly. I would not be jamming turn here but probably check/calling and hoping he sometimes turns hands like 77-1010 into a bluff since you are getting 3 to 1 here. You block AQ very hard, you would think he 3 bets AK pre himself.

This is a pretty bad spot and I wouldn't criticize a fold here either but I x/call myself and hope he spews 25% of the time.
 
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