$25 NLHE Full Ring: Strong Draw on Turn...Line Options?

rileyl

rileyl

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2008
Total posts
477
Chips
0
Ok so here is an interesting hand I just played...I think this can hopefully spark some good discussion as I have my opinion on what is the best line on turn but want to see others. More importantly what are your reasons for what you choose? If we raise what size?

Villain is an 11/9 reg... I've been 17/15

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3
UTG+1: $30.17
MP: $26.83
MP+1: $29.88
LP: $20.00
CO: $39.59
Hero (BTN): $29.35
SB: $22.66
BB: $24.30
UTG: $25.00
SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K Q
fold, fold, MP raises to $1.00, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.00, SB calls $0.90, fold
Flop: ($3.25, 3 players) 4 6 A
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($3.25, 3 players) T
SB checks, MP bets $2.30, Hero calls or raises????
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Chips
0
What do you think his range is for leading the turn after checking back flop?

What do you think you rep by raising here?
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
almost looks like he checked with some kind of mid to large pair since the ace fell and is now vbetting turn. He could also be doing this with AA/66. And yeah, what chuck said, what do you rep by raising?
 
rileyl

rileyl

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2008
Total posts
477
Chips
0
The easy part is knowing what to do once we know his range...I want opinions on what you guys think his range is here. What I rep is a good point and one that we should consider although against nit regs at 25NL probably not our biggest concern but still should weigh on our decision slightly. I really don't rep a whole helluva lot TT and AT but again is a nit reg going to notice this?

I said I have my opinion on what his range is and what the best play is but I want to here others opinions and reasons for raising or calling.

I posted this hand not so much because I don't know how it should be played (I'm actually pretty sure I know the best line) but moreso to provoke some discussion about how one should go about deciding whether to raise or call with certain draws.
 
vanquish

vanquish

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 26, 2007
Total posts
12,000
Chips
0
by calling, you entice SB to continue as well, which is great, esp. if he has a smaller heart draw (which may fold if you raise)
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
How do you rep AT? You would've bet the flop
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
What's villain really repping here besides a pair less than Aces? He was the PFR not hero so once he fails to cbet he has basically no Aces in his range.

I raise to ~$8 and if called by MP only, shove most rivers (should be just over a PSB left on the river if my math is correct). If he shoves over the raise I fold but turn 3bets are basically always the nuts (slowplayed AA or TT here) so I'm not expecting a turn 3bet very often at all.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
IMO his range is heavily weighted toward hands he's not going to fold on the turn: sets, AQ/AK/AT/TP+NFD. He has a small amount of big PPs JJ-KK.

The flop is dry enough that plenty of people will check back TP on this board.

The good news is we have position and he has a big enough of a hand to pay us off if we make our hand on the river.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
IMO his range is heavily weighted toward hands he's not going to fold on the turn: sets, AQ/AK/AT/TP+NFD. He has a small amount of big PPs JJ-KK.

The flop is dry enough that plenty of people will check back TP on this board.

The good news is we have position and he has a big enough of a hand to pay us off if we make our hand on the river.

But villain didn't check it back on the flop. Villain is OOP and is cbetting about 99.9% of the times he holds an Ace on that flop. Also I'm not trying to get him to fold the turn when I raise, I want him to call. He can fold the river if I miss. :)
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
mmm maybe, still, it's just as hard for us to rep an Ace given that we checked the flop.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
mmm maybe, still, it's just as hard for us to rep an Ace given that we checked the flop.
True but this doesn't matter nearly as much imo. He might find it suspicious and call the turn (like I said I'm cool with that) but when we shove just slightly more than pot on the river he'll only be seeing hands that beat him and he'll make the good fold.

If we only call here, we're very rarely making any money on the river when we do hit. Also if we miss and bluff after he checks the river, villain will be much more likely to call with his bluff catchers because the pot, and therefore the river bet, won't be nearly as big and villain gets to see SD in the size pot he wants to.

The only way we really make more by calling is when the SB has a smaller FD that he would fold to the turn raise and we both get there on the river (like Vanquish pointed out). That just seems like too rare an occurrence to be making our turn decision based on that.
 
kadafi

kadafi

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 28, 2007
Total posts
404
Chips
0
True but this doesn't matter nearly as much imo. He might find it suspicious and call the turn (like I said I'm cool with that) but when we shove just slightly more than pot on the river he'll only be seeing hands that beat him and he'll make the good fold.

If we only call here, we're very rarely making any money on the river when we do hit. Also if we miss and bluff after he checks the river, villain will be much more likely to call with his bluff catchers because the pot, and therefore the river bet, won't be nearly as big and villain gets to see SD in the size pot he wants to.

The only way we really make more by calling is when the SB has a smaller FD that he would fold to the turn raise and we both get there on the river (like Vanquish pointed out). That just seems like too rare an occurrence to be making our turn decision based on that.

+1
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
Very nice explanation wvh
 
rileyl

rileyl

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2008
Total posts
477
Chips
0
Important question here for WV...I've been almost exclusively a 6Max guy myself and while I think I know the answer to what I'm about to ask you I'll ask anyways...

Do people in FR fold TP to a turn raise here on average? Also if the river comes a complete blank and we shove after raising turn, do they really fold TP after they called our turn raise? Just seems that if they are calling our turn raise and the 2c comes on river or something that they probably will (and should) call.

This information is very important as if villain will fold TP the decision to raise turn becomes pretty simple. Although I just don't see how many TP type hands villain has in his range here.
 
benevg

benevg

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 22, 2007
Total posts
1,267
Chips
0
Do people in FR fold TP to a turn raise here on average? Also if the river comes a complete blank and we shove after raising turn, do they really fold TP after they called our turn raise? Just seems that if they are calling our turn raise and the 2c comes on river or something that they probably will (and should) call.
well, i normally would fold a hand like AJ to a raise here. of course, i am not certain if i wouldn't c-bet the flop with that hand... but if i call the turn (if i have some sort of read, that is), i am also likely to call the river once a brick comes.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Important question here for WV...I've been almost exclusively a 6Max guy myself and while I think I know the answer to what I'm about to ask you I'll ask anyways...

Do people in FR fold TP to a turn raise here on average? Also if the river comes a complete blank and we shove after raising turn, do they really fold TP after they called our turn raise? Just seems that if they are calling our turn raise and the 2c comes on river or something that they probably will (and should) call.

This information is very important as if villain will fold TP the decision to raise turn becomes pretty simple. Although I just don't see how many TP type hands villain has in his range here.

Generally tight players will fold TP to a turn raise but even if he does call he's very unlikely to call the river shove with less than top2. You're correct that their decision should be made on the turn but I see turn raises called and then river folds to further aggression all the time. I really can't see too many Aces that he doesn't cbet with though.
 
rileyl

rileyl

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2008
Total posts
477
Chips
0
Ok so in game I did exactly as WVH said and raised to about 8. Villain called and my flush filled on the river, villain checked I shoved villain called with AA for a set of Aces. Great result for me right!

Now after my session I looked at the hand and decided I really didn't like my turn raise under the assumption that I didn't think I was getting TP to fold. The hands I figured I was targetting with the raise were JJ, QQ, KK a total of 12 combinations and MAYBE some hands like T9s which would add another 4 combos or so. There are 9 combos of slowplayed sets and also another 3 combos of TT as well as 9 combos of AT which all probably shove over my raise on the turn causing me to fold. (YES I realize he didn't shove over my turn raise with AA but still think I should assume an opponent normally would)

I haven't even brought up top pair hands like AK, AQ cuz frankly I just don't weigh them heavily in his range. (This goes for the AT combos as well) I think he will have some TP hands in his range and I think the right play comes down to how he ultimately plays these hands. If he continues with them I think we should call, as we don't lose our equity against his strong hands and as vanquish said we can induce a call from SB. Hands like QJ etc. that he might have we still crush so calling isn't bad as villain doesn't have great equity with these. If he folds TP then I think thats enough to change our decision to raising. The benefit of getting his TP hands to fold whether on turn or river makes up for the times when we get shoved over by his strong hands I think. Thoughts?
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
Like I said in my previous posts I do think you get folds from his TP hands most of the time as long as you are willing to shove the river regardless. And again I just don't see many TP hands in his range after he checks the flop. AA checking the flop makes some sense though which is why I said I would fold the turn if he shoved over the raise. It was very nice of him to let you see the river in this instance.
 
rileyl

rileyl

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 15, 2008
Total posts
477
Chips
0
Really the point I was trying to get at by posting this hand is that I think many people when they get a draw with alot of outs or a TP + flush draw type hand just automatically think "MEZ GOT BIGG DRAW I RAIZE!!!" I think these are situations when you really need to think about what you are accomplishing by raising....What hands in his range are folding?

A common mistake I think is raising when you have TP+Flush Draw especially in FR if people are as nitty as it seems. By raising your folding out all the hands you probably are ahead of and bloating the pot against the strong part of his range.

Just some food for thought...THINK before you click those buttons!
 
Top