$25 NLHE Full Ring: Spewy bluff or good spot to take the pot?

acky100

acky100

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Villain was 48/14 over 27 hands. Clearly a fish even after only 27 hands.

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1472669
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $8.55
Hero (BTN): $24.90
SB: $25.00
BB: $27.87
UTG: $12.10
UTG+1: $5.75
MP1: $25.85
MP2: $11.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with T :spade: K :heart:
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $1.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.85) Q :spade: Q :heart: 9 :spade: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2

Turn: ($7.85) A :spade: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $9

Thought process was that if called i still may have some outs, and there is a lot of hands that could call the flop and then give up to the scare card.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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Check back turn. This fish will prob have a lot of aces in his and I would be surprised to see him have some queens too. Also I really hate bluffing against droolers especially when they're shortstacked
 
acky100

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two different views already, that's good actually.

I was thinking of betting smaller baudib actually but i thought i'd be pretty committed if he shoved over and betting larger would give me more f.e?

Still not sure which is the best play, sure he can have a lot of Aces but even if he is capable of calling a flop like that with something like A5, then he has no flush that would beat mine if mine hit... and surely theres some 9 combo's in his range and stuff like TT and JJ that would fold to the turn bet.. maybe even smaller pairs like 66 and stuff.

You make a good point about not bluffing droolers though bgomez i try to not do it either, i dont know if he's a drooler or not but it is still possible which would be bad for me.
 
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baudib1

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you should have a pretty good idea on what he's doing postflop.
 
JOEBOB69

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deff no need to over bet the pot.
 
acky100

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Yeah i should of, the hand isn't really recent so i cant totally remember but i marked it down to post here - should of done it earlier.

Im pretty sure theres more chance he was just a loose fish than a complete and utter never folding drooler, so assuming he's just a bad fish but not completely suicidal do we think his range becomes small enough on the turn + my equity if called whatever it actually is, that it = a good play? I dont do shit like this often and when i do bluff its usually against regulars who im sure are on pocket pairs and sdv hands.
 
JOEBOB69

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I don't know Acky play makes no sense to me.
 
acky100

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Yeah Joe i think you two are right on that point, looking at it now if i bet smaller its possible i could maybe get away from it if he shoved, and it would probably achieve the same thing!
 
acky100

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How do you work out the maths of how often someone has to fold to a bet to breakeven? I keep confusing myself.

if i bet half pot villain is getting 3:1 on his call so has to win 25% of the time to b/e so am i right in saying bluffing half pot i need to make him fold 75% of the time??
ugh that cant be right... someone correct please haha
 
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RVladimiro

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About the bluff bet size I use a mnemonic:

Full pot has to work 1/2 of the time
1/2 pot has to work 1/3 of the time
1/3 pot has to work 1/4 of the time
1/4 pot has to work 1/5 of the time

About the hand:

I don't know who you are, mister but we want the real acky100 back! Seriously... vs a fish... bluffing like that? :D I don't know what to say!
 
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baudib1

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to me it really sort of depends on what kind of fish he is. if his flop-calling range is mostly like 9x/JT/77-88 stuff I like it. I like the iso preflop.
 
acky100

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About the bluff bet size I use a mnemonic:

Full pot has to work 1/2 of the time
1/2 pot has to work 1/3 of the time
1/3 pot has to work 1/4 of the time
1/4 pot has to work 1/5 of the time

About the hand:

I don't know who you are, mister but we want the real acky100 back! Seriously... vs a fish... bluffing like that? :D I don't know what to say!

Thanks for the mnemonic, about the next comment though :O ha ha

I'll let you off because you're a baller at 2nl now thanks to my training :D But stage 2 of training begins now;

You need to remember fish arent all the same, lots of fish fold as much as regs and nits post flop, if the guy was a complete and utter calling station i would of thought twice about bluffing here, but if he's just seeing flops and actually being a bit calmer post-flop which i must of thought he was, then we need to stop thinking dont bluff fish and think about his preflop range and his flop range and how narrow his turn continuing range is compared to his flop calling range as if he's folding many more combo's than what he calls on the flop with add my fold equity and showdown equity and it might not be such an obvious spew line.

Dont bluff calling stations is a better rule than dont bluff fish is what i was trying to say in all that rambling on!

Now im gonna try and work out what play is actually better :D
 
acky100

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to me it really sort of depends on what kind of fish he is. if his flop-calling range is mostly like 9x/JT/77-88 stuff I like it. I like the iso preflop.

Yeah its gonna be really hard to work out without knowing what hands he's limping and raising and small sample isn't it. I'm glad you didnt think it was instantly spewy, and i have learnt that me putting him all in probably wasn't neccessary.


I half pot he needs to fold 33% of combo's;

if he is calling the flop with A9,A8,A7,A6,A5, there is 76 combo's i think. (and possibly isnt calling with all of them but i'll say he is for the purpose of this)
9Q is also calling so there's 6 more combo's.
maybe he can also have stuff like Q4s-Q7s - 8 combos and Q8,QT - 16 combos.

106 combo's beat me so if i can find 36 combo's that fold to a half pot bet then it would be +EV, maybe i need even less combo's because i still have like 9-12 outs to improve if called.

9T,9J,9K - 30 combo's
TJ - 12 combo's

So already i think he could fold over 33% of his range, does my working out sound reasonable? I have been quite conservative too and assumed he doesn't call the flop with stuff like 66-88 and TT,JJ.

Guess it really does depend on the type of fish, which we'll never know :/
 
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baudib1

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why wouldn't you know? I really think you should be able to have a better idea on what he's doing postflop even after 27 hands based on the fact that he plays every other hand.
 
acky100

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you're totally right i dont actually have an excuse, he clearly didn't have my attention enough which is pretty bad on my part. Gonna have to watch them fish more closely.
 
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I'll let you off because you're a baller at 2nl now thanks to my training But stage 2 of training begins now;

:D Loved this sentence! You and bgomez are my poker parents and I guess I'm a confused poker teenager now but I'm a good and thankful kid. :D

You need to remember fish arent all the same, lots of fish fold as much as regs and nits post flop, if the guy was a complete and utter calling station i would of thought twice about bluffing here, but if he's just seeing flops and actually being a bit calmer post-flop which i must of thought he was, then we need to stop thinking dont bluff fish and think about his preflop range and his flop range and how narrow his turn continuing range is compared to his flop calling range as if he's folding many more combo's than what he calls on the flop with add my fold equity and showdown equity and it might not be such an obvious spew line.

I understand that mate but I really think that (and absolutely level 1 thinking I admit) with 27 hands of history, three to a flush and a ace on the board such a big bet is very spewy against a fish.
 
acky100

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that's what i thought initially but you know level 1 thinking is for fish, if you look at my analysis (or my attempt of analysis) you'll see that things dont look so "very spewy" ;)

But you're right of course i know bluffing fish is bad but this spot i just thought wait a minute, with the A coming quite a lot of his range must fold to a bet + i have equity if called. Of course at the table i cant do any good analysis just a very basic and quick image in my head of what he will call with and what he will fold so i knew it wasn't the worst spot in the world to bluff but i was wrong in overbetting, that was spewy i think.
 
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wait a minute, with the A coming quite a lot of his range must fold to a bet + i have equity if called.

This is the reason I don't like the overbet and I find it spewy actually. If he would ever fold, he'd fold to a cheaper bluff. The reason for his fold would be the A not the bet size.
 
Stu_Ungar

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I dont like it.

He has Qx in his range.

A-high just made TP

Any PP = 2pair

Any spade = A FD

xxs = flush

I actually cant think of any hand he folds that KT is behind.
 
acky100

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This is the reason I don't like the overbet and I find it spewy actually. If he would ever fold, he'd fold to a cheaper bluff. The reason for his fold would be the A not the bet size.

Thats what im saying, the overbet was definitely spew :)
 
acky100

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I dont like it.

He has Qx in his range.

A-high just made TP

Any PP = 2pair

Any spade = A FD

xxs = flush

I actually cant think of any hand he folds that KT is behind.

Thanks stu. Erm, what do you think of my analysis of the hand, is it way off? The Qx in his range should be quite few combo's considering theres 2 Q's out no? Aces in his range are definitely not folding though but, im sure smaller pocket pairs are still gonna fold even though they have two pair with the two overcards and scary looking board perhaps. XXs is maybe something i didnt add enough into his range, but still flushes are hard to make arent they?

About the KT being behind nothing that he folds, what about like the 9x hands and smaller pp's? maybe i'm giving this fish too much credit for being able to fold...
 
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