$25 NLHE Full Ring: Set of Aces gets the Beluga Treatment?

Double-A

Double-A

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 14, 2008
Total posts
787
Chips
0
$25 NL HE Full Ring: Set of Aces gets the Beluga Treatment?

poker stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 543990
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00
Hero (UTG): $25.65
UTG+1: $25.00
MP: $25.00
CO: $48.45
BTN: $7.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A :heart: A :club:
Hero raises to $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.60) J :club: T :spade: A :diamond: (3 players)
Hero bets $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, CO folds

Turn: ($6.10) Q :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, UTG+1 raises to $13, Hero???

Apart from punching yourself in the face, whadda ya do here?

Villain was something like 17/10 over 30 or so hands... he seemed pretty fit/fold after the flop...
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
You can call, you have 20% chance to fill up assuming he has K with a broadway card, if he has like K9, you're slightly better. you also have a 6% chance to chop. With implied odds and assuming he can't fold broadway if the board pairs, you're getting the right price to take his stack.
 
M

Marginal

Junior Member
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 28, 2009
Total posts
10,426
Awards
3
Chips
2
If he has 20% equity, he is definitely not getting the right price even when you factor in implied odds. Do we have to bet the turn though? What do you expect to happen?
 
B

BenLZ

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 3, 2009
Total posts
384
Chips
0
It's likely he has the king. I'd probably just call here, you really have a lot of outs actually. If I'm calculating correctly, you're a little under 50% when you take into account T,J,Q,K, or A for a split pot at worst. I think you're getting the right price to call.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Total posts
3,904
Chips
0
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 543990
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00
Hero (UTG): $25.65
UTG+1: $25.00
MP: $25.00
CO: $48.45
BTN: $7.15

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.60) J T A (3 players)
Hero bets $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, CO folds

Turn: ($6.10) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, UTG+1 raises to $13, Hero???

Apart from punching yourself in the face, whadda ya do here?

Villain was something like 17/10 over 30 or so hands... he seemed pretty fit/fold after the flop...

It's likely he has the king. I'd probably just call here, you really have a lot of outs actually. If I'm calculating correctly, you're a little under 50% when you take into account T,J,Q,K, or A for a split pot at worst. I think you're getting the right price to call.

50% is a little high-- we actually have 25% equity going to the river against Kx, which includes the tie. So the expressed odds are wrong, and the implied odds aren't really there either, since villain has very little left behind. This is a super hard fold-- one I probably couldn't make-- but it's probably the right one.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
If he has 20% equity, he is definitely not getting the right price even when you factor in implied odds. Do we have to bet the turn though? What do you expect to happen?

uh, he has to call $8.50 to win $50.35...am i missing the new math or something?
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Total posts
3,904
Chips
0
uh, he has to call $8.50 to win $50.35...am i missing the new math or something?

Well, if my math is right, you're risking $8.50 to win the $23.60 in the pot, plus the $9.50 he's got left behind, which is about 3.89-to-1 odds. This is assuming he ALWAYS stacks off on the river. So we're really not getting the right odds.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
oh you're right my bad, it's still close though.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Total posts
3,904
Chips
0
oh you're right my bad, it's still close though.

Oh yeah, it's definitely close. He might even have a random two pair or something if he were really bad. Either way, this is not a spot I'd want to be in.
 
B

BenLZ

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 3, 2009
Total posts
384
Chips
0
50% is a little high-- we actually have 25% equity going to the river against Kx, which includes the tie. So the expressed odds are wrong, and the implied odds aren't really there either, since villain has very little left behind. This is a super hard fold-- one I probably couldn't make-- but it's probably the right one.

I'm going by this

http://casinogambling.about.com/library/weekly/aa050103.htm

It's really only a 38.4% chance to win the pot (ten outs, A, 3 Q, 3 T, 3 J) and another 3 outs for a split (which brings it up to almost 50). Tell me if the chart is wrong, maybe it is. At the point the villain makes a raise its an extra $8.5 into a pot of what is now $23.6 or 36% more...These are all my own calculations and in a game I would just have to make a rough estimate...folding 3 aces is excruciating though.
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 12, 2009
Total posts
3,904
Chips
0
I'm going by this

http://casinogambling.about.com/library/weekly/aa050103.htm

It's really only a 38.4% chance to win the pot (ten outs, A, 3 Q, 3 T, 3 J) and another 3 outs for a split (which brings it up to almost 50). Tell me if the chart is wrong, maybe it is. At the point the villain makes a raise its an extra $8.5 into a pot of what is now $23.6 or 36% more...These are all my own calculations and in a game I would just have to make a rough estimate...folding 3 aces is excruciating though.

You're looking at it with two cards to come. We only have one card to come.
 
Double-A

Double-A

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 14, 2008
Total posts
787
Chips
0
If he has 20% equity, he is definitely not getting the right price even when you factor in implied odds. Do we have to bet the turn though? What do you expect to happen?

Yeah, turn bet is a question mark. I'll have to think about that some more, later... my house is kinda crazy right now.

I'm not sure HOW bad calling his raise is though. If we fill up, he stacks off on the river w/ any hand that had us beat on the turn, right? Slight chance that he under-fulls as well. Still not QUITE enough implied odds, unless...

are we ever ahead here?
 
Z

Zybomb

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 12, 2009
Total posts
372
Chips
0
There's no point in betting the turn. Check/call

If raised we're put in the position we're in (sucks) and the rest of the time we're pretty much gunna fold out almost everything else that we beat. I only like betting if the game is particularly aggressive or we have a loose image to the point where 2 pairs isn't going away

As played it's close. We're getting roughly 3:1 on a call in a hand that we're a slight bigger dog to so it depends if we think villain will pay us off if the board pairs. If we do (at least if there's more than a 50% chance that he will) then it's a call. If we don't it's a close fold
 
Last edited:
Top