$25 NLHE Full Ring: Set 9 auto fold in this spot?

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players

UTG: $7.53 (30 bb)
UTG+1: $25.30 (101 bb) Vpip 25 PFR 5 AF 3 (Only 40 hands)
MP: $64.17 (257 bb)
MP+1: $34.23 (137 bb)
CO: $25.00 (100 bb)
BU: $27.16 (109 bb)
SB (Hero): $35.39 (142 bb)
BB: $18.22 (73 bb) Vpip 30 PFR 16 AF 2 (Only 43 Hands)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with 9♥ 9♠
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.62, MP calls $0.62, 2 players fold, BTN calls $0.62, Hero calls $0.52, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($3.10) 9♦ 4♠ T♠ (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($3.10) A♦ (5 players)
Hero bets $1.75, BB calls $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, 2 players fold

River: ($8.35) 8♣ (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4, UTG+1 raises to $11, SB (Hero) folds, BB raises to $15.85 (all-in), UTG+1 calls $4.85

Should I just 3-Bet pre . I'll check/raise OTF but no one bet
Is this auto fold in this spot?

Preflop
I dont like 3-betting 99 against someone with a PFR of only 5, even its over a small sample. Just calling and playing the hand as a setmine is perfect.

Flop
The check-raise idea is fine, but its not a bad spot for a donk bet either. The pot is very multiway, and then it tend to matter less, who has the initiative.

Turn
I like betting, when it got checked through on the flop. Hopefully someone has top pair now, and we can get two streets of value.

River
I dont understand checking the river. Is this to check-raise or because you are scared, you are beat? For me this is a clear value betting spot, and then we can make a decision, if we get raised. As played it is a little gross, when they get into this raise-reraise war, but your hand is so strong, that I would still lean towards calling it off. If UTG+1 sandbagged a better set, or BB rivered a straight, good for them. I think, you are looking at AK and AJ or something of that nature often enough to make a profitable call here against two fish or bad regs.

Pre is fine with no reads since UTG1 has low PFR stats and EP. This is one of the rare times I would donk lead flop large. It's super multi way and we expect UTG1 to have a narrow range that may be able to call. When we are set mining we want to ensure we can get 3 streets of value on most run outs. With no reads I donk lead large for 2/3 pot. It's unbalanced and exploitable but we should be playing more face up in 5 way pots. We can also have combo draws like KQss, QJsx, J7ss, 76ss, etc if we want to balance with some semi bluffs. Either way, donk or check through, I'm potting this turn. Now there are two flush draws along with all the straight draws and the Ax. River is gross as there hasn't been much post flop action to fold out many of the straight draws. AA or TT should have absolutely bet or raised flop or turn with all the draws on board so I don't expect to see them much, especially as both of these guys have reasonable aggression factors, but some fish will slow play AA and top set in horrible spots on occasion. I wouldn't call it an auto fold. But for the overbet and with action behind when the most expected straight comes in I'd call it a tight fold. If it was 4 to a flush or straight I'd call it an auto fold. Here there are still some Ax and two pair hands and busted flush draws that may get out of line. I don't understand the river check either. I wouldn't have let it get to the river for this price so I'm not sure if I can still call or not but I may still station this off since we are under-repped and even though it's only 40 hands, I don't expect UTG1 to have QJ here. Once we call UTG we have to call the re-shove. They are repping the straight and will have it some of the time but we don't have to be best very often for this call to make a profit. If they show down anything other than QJ or 67 make a note and move on.

fundiver199 said:

Preflop
I dont like 3-betting 99 against someone with a PFR of only 5, even its over a small sample. Just calling and playing the hand as a setmine is perfect.

Flop
The check-raise idea is fine, but its not a bad spot for a donk bet either. The pot is very multiway, and then it tend to matter less, who has the initiative.

Turn
I like betting, when it got checked through on the flop. Hopefully someone has top pair now, and we can get two streets of value.

River
I dont understand checking the river. Is this to check-raise or because you are scared, you are beat? For me this is a clear value betting spot, and then we can make a decision, if we get raised. As played it is a little gross, when they get into this raise-reraise war, but your hand is so strong, that I would still lean towards calling it off. If UTG+1 sandbagged a better set, or BB rivered a straight, good for them. I think, you are looking at AK and AJ or something of that nature often enough to make a profitable call here against two fish or bad regs.

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I wasn't sure on the river . I thought 5-way someone could have straight and so I preferred to check/call river I forgot about I can get value from Ax

thank you fundiver

c0rnBr34d said:

If they show down anything other than QJ or 67 make a note and move on.

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I would also add, that only BB should ever have those hands, and 67 should only be of diamonds exactly. Calling on the turn with just a gutshot and 7 high is something, even a fish will usually not do.

have to say I'm not a nit but I'm not sure why . this hand I played too tight haha maybe I loss too much big pot this day

So UTG had the straight. This is of course not, what we would expect from his HUD stats, but it just goes to show, that fish are not always linear or logical. Maybe he normally limp QJ, but for unknown reasons he decided to raise this time. If was very unlucky for you, that BB slowplayed his set. If he had raised the turn, you would have gotten it in against him and forced QJ to either fold or call it off bad. It also show, why donk betting the flop might be better here. Even QJ did not bet the flop, so you are not really "trapping" anyone in this multiway spot. You are just giving them a free card to draw out on you.

fundiver199 said:

I would also add, that only BB should ever have those hands, and 67 should only be of diamonds exactly. Calling on the turn with just a gutshot and 7 high is something, even a fish will usually not do.

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Diamonds or spades both have flush draw and gut shot on the turn and I guess J7s as well.

siwanat99 said:

have to say I'm not a nit but I'm not sure why . this hand I played too tight haha maybe I loss too much big pot this day

Spoiler

UTG+1 had QJo BB had 44

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Absolutely ridiculous to play bottom set that slow with this run out super multi way. It seems like he doesn't like money lol. I'm sure UTG1 was surprised to get to the river only calling one turn bet facing two sets. You guys could have gotten it all in by the turn and probably pushed out the draw in the process creating a nice double up plus for Hero.

SB's calling range

The Preflop

Wow friend, you are really getting dealt good hands out of position huh? AK, AA from the BB and now 99 from the SB.
I don't like Squeezing here for 2 main reasons:

A) Our Squeeze has to be very large since three players already enter into the pot. Once one or two of them call our Squeeze we will be playing oop.

B) If we do Squeeze SB vs UTG/MP/BTN, do we expect UTG or MP to call with 88- ?
I guess we can get calls from 88- but this is the exception, not the rule. Most of times UTG will only call a Squeeze here with TT+ and AQ+, we do have 30 combos of pocket pairs plus 32 combos of broadways, as a title of example.
1/2 of the times our Squeeze will be paid for better hands and 1/2 of the times we are going for a flip versus AQ and AK, although this is just the worst case scenario, Villain could/can call Squeeze with AJ, KQ, you name it.

We are calling here mostly to hit our set, so when we hit it and the flop is not so scary we would go for a lead. We do not have good playability from the SB, so it rests not much to say.

The postflop

The Flop

If we do miss and do not get anything such as gutter or a OESD, we are simply check-folding flop. that was our plan, to hit a set or a good equity. When the set comes, I am not checking flop, since UTG and MP will present a lot of strong hands such as TT, JJ, QQ, KK and AA (we believe that only UTG can have AA and KK) and we are losing only for TT, so I would lead here for value and protection, 1/2 to 2/3 pot.
What good could come from checking here? If it comes 8x, Jx, Qx, it is not good anymore, if it comes another Spade it is not good anymore, if it comes any overcard such as Jx, Qx, Kx or Ax we are not safe because UTG can still have on its ranges AA, KK and QQ, so the only good turn for us it would be another 9 of clubs.
Everyone checks too, which can means anything.

The Turn

This Ace of Diamonds I don't like to bet here, because UTG still can has AA on its range, however it is a possibility, given that Villain's will have in a higher frequency more combos of AK, AQ and AJ.
I don't like the bet because we give sweet information for good regulars to exploit us. We are out of position in relation to 3 other players, it comes an ace and we do not have too many of it.
We also have information that when regulars like you call from the SB, it is always a capped range: 22-JJ, and perhaps some suited broadways? It becomes very easy to read our range and thus exploit us.
Are we calling from the SB with AK, AQ, AJ to play out of position versus two players? I guess this is never a good ideia, we are 3-betting 100% of times these combos, so we do have none of these.
We also do not have QQ, KK and AA, those would be also 3-betting preflop 100% of times.

The other side: considering that we can have a lot of bluffs here, I like the bet here, if we also bet this turn with our flush draws of diamonds and spades + two overcards. The mid flush draws of diamonds and spades I am not bluffing like this, because I am oop and because Villain's can have better flush draws on their ranges.
I am not bluffing the straight draws because I don't have many of them from the SB, so it rests our value range: T9, 44, 99 and TT are betting.
In both cases, when we do bet for bluff with our flush draws of diamonds and spades plus two overcards and when we do bet for value with two pair and sets, we elect to polarize our range, and given the ammount of players involved on the pot, I would go here for 100% pot, but I believe that at the micros many regulars will shove a lot this spot and we must call, and many regulars will find theirselves with odds for calling here, when they should be folding their FDs and SDs, TPTK, almost snap folding, for this reason we should take ourselves into risk and go for 120% pot, 150%, even 175% if we do believe Villain's would level/call too much with draws and TPTK's here, and we are already in if they jam, c'est la vie (it is life).
By betting so small OTT, we are giving excellent odds for everyone in position to call with any flush draw, any straight draw or whatever.

The River

River I guess we can never be calling. It completes a straight and we could be losing for AA and TT that will be on their ranges in a very high frequency. We don't really know if both BB and UTG can have combos of QJ that completed a straight here. I would easily fold and take notes of players of what they went to showdown.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa