$25 NLHE Full Ring: River Line?

Jurn8

Jurn8

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: River Line?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/13/2

sample is over 630 hands, is he slowrolling a monster here + fires hard on the river or is he trying to push me off a hand.

NOTE: please make 20NL into 25NL

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $4.40 (17.6 bb)
CO: $70.05 (280.2 bb)
BTN: $26.15 (104.6 bb)
SB: $26.10 (104.4 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $27 (108 bb)
UTG+1: $48.25 (193 bb)
MP1: $5 (20 bb)
Hero (MP2): $30.80 (123.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with Q:diamond: Q:heart:
UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, MP3 folds, CO calls $2.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.85) 5:spade: T:heart: 9:club: (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, CO folds, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($15.85) T:diamond: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($15.85) 3:heart: (2 players)
UTG bets $10.50, Hero??
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Bleeeeeeeeh. Problem is you only have a pair of queens. Good thing is that there are no straights or flushes. More good news is that given his range you're ahead. I call reluctantly. He could have JJ which would be nice, but KK might be there too. I doubt he hit a set on that flop but a river 33 for a set doesn't seem likely either given he called that flop cbet after your 3bet.

Yeah I call. We have equity to make this move. If it came up that he had something crazy like KK or TT, then fine.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

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with such a strong river bet I was thinking monster or trying to push me off a hand like an over pair because the board had paired.
 
Jagsti

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He's UTG, so what range of hands do you think's he bluffing with that floats to the river? What range of hands do you think he's value betting with on that river? To me this looks like a value bet, it's whether it's thin enough to call with QQ. The more I look at it I think he has something that crushes us like slow played set, or badly played overpair, but I never fold this coz I'm a calling station.
 
Jurn8

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10s+ maybe 9s+ are his range IMO, I dont think he has AA unless he has played it tricky.

IMO I think hes slowplaying a monster maybe 10s here or KK/AA, actually the more I read it AA/KK seem more possible because of the check when the board pairs, either hes going for the check raise beluga or is slowplaying. I dont see how we can beat him here unless he has JJ, which I suppose is definately in his range. Would this be nitty to fold or would it be spewy to call?
 
Jagsti

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JJ is probably the only hand he's value betting that we beat tbh. This is typical of my problem lately, going to s/d too often in this type of scenario.
 
Tygran

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Bleh...

you've underrepped your hand with the turn check behind (which isn't a bad thing though)

I think his range is wider than 99+

I would add 33, 78s to JQs in his range as well as A9s and ATs and possibly *any* other pp...22-88 (something like 77 or 88 being most likely)

If you are using HeM, does his river Agg Frequency spike up higher than other streets? I could definitely see him deciding you don't love your hand after the turn check (might put you on AK) and deciding either that he's probably good with a random pair or that he can push you off the hand often enough.

Bleh.. this spot sucks but I definitely think we beat a few things wider than JJ. I'm not going to be shocked to see AT or TJ or QQ-AA. I'm also not going to be extremely shocked to see a single 9, JJ or a busted straight draw.

The turn check behind is partly to induce bluffs or weaker vbets so I think there is enough of a chance you are getting one of those.

I don't have pokerstove on this computer but off the cuff I think I lean towards a call here (take good notes on whatever he has if you do)
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

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Bleh...

you've underrepped your hand with the turn check behind (which isn't a bad thing though)

I think his range is wider than 99+

I would add 33, 78s to JQs in his range as well as A9s and ATs and possibly *any* other pp...22-88 (something like 77 or 88 being most likely)

If you are using HeM, does his river Agg Frequency spike up higher than other streets? I could definitely see him deciding you don't love your hand after the turn check (might put you on AK) and deciding either that he's probably good with a random pair or that he can push you off the hand often enough.

Bleh.. this spot sucks but I definitely think we beat a few things wider than JJ. I'm not going to be shocked to see AT or TJ or QQ-AA. I'm also not going to be extremely shocked to see a single 9, JJ or a busted straight draw.

The turn check behind is partly to induce bluffs or weaker vbets so I think there is enough of a chance you are getting one of those.

I don't have pokerstove on this computer but off the cuff I think I lean towards a call here (take good notes on whatever he has if you do)

You think these hands would be in his UTG opening range??
 
Tygran

Tygran

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You think these hands would be in his UTG opening range??


Eh... sometimes from a 17/13 yeah I do. The higher suited connectors like TJ and JQ... yes sometimes he'll open those, although i'm not sure how often a 17/13 calls a 3bet with them UTG. AT/A9 I'd take out of his range. Any pocket pair 22+ absolutely.

For some reason I thought he was in MP instead of UTG, not sure why.
 
OzExorcist

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Gross spot - smells a lot like TT+ to me, problem is we're only ahead of one hand in that range.

It could be AK that floated you on the flop then figured your turn check for genuine weakness though. AQ/AJ and 66-88 might try that line too, though I think we're getting less and less likely with those.

PokerStove puts us at 62:38 against TT+/AK. We're worse but still ahead against 99+/AK, and we're a huge favourite if we include AQ/AJ and 66-88 as well.

My gut reaction was bleh, another big pair and we're likely behind. That might still be right. Thinking about it though, I think AK and other semi-bluffs fit this pattern often enough that you can call.
 
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