$25 NLHE Full Ring: River bet for value or check behind?

No Brainer

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 87/7/2.1

These two hands against same villain had me a bit confused. One side of me was saying bet (or shove in one case) the river for value as I am ahead of his range. The other side was saying just check behind, we only have one pair and he could have hit any part of this board (two pair, slowplaying trips etc). Looking back on it I am sure this is a situation where stacking off with one pair might be a good idea?

Villain was a super fish, betting when he had any pair (top, middle or bottom) and calling bets with any sniff of a draw.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($8.85)
BB ($26.72)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($61.87)
UTG+2 ($24.63)
MP1 ($26.55)
MP2 ($24.32)
Hero ($25.84)
BTN ($26.94)

Dealt to Hero Q A

UTG calls $0.25, UTG+1 calls $0.25, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1, BTN calls $1, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75

FLOP ($4.35) 8 Q 7

UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero raises to $3.75, BTN folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2.25

TURN ($11.85) 8 Q 7 T

UTG+1 bets $3, Hero raises to $10, UTG+1 calls $7

RIVER ($31.85) 8 Q 7 T 8

UTG+1 checks, Hero


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($25)
BB ($33.37)
UTG ($24.63)
UTG+1 ($39.26)
UTG+2 ($24.32)
Hero ($41.35)
MP2 ($25.94)
CO ($8.75)
BTN ($26.37)

Dealt to Hero K Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

FLOP ($3) 9 Q T

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2, SB folds, BB calls $2

TURN ($7) 9 Q T 3

BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, BB calls $3.25

RIVER ($13.50) 9 Q T 3 4

BB checks, Hero
 
GrimlyGrim

GrimlyGrim

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I don't see how he calls the river shove on the first hand with anything worse than you that isn't QJ or Q9. It just feels like there is nothing left to get out of him.

The second hand is pure steam and hatred for you. Bet it!! (Yes, I'm an idiot. I know.)
 
Pascal-lf

Pascal-lf

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Better bigger turn on hand 2.

Think he could end up on the river with an 8? If not, ship river.
 
REI53

REI53

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U have to think what's his range on the 1st...the most likely hand he will have in that spot is JQ or maybe JT...but he can have A8, K8, J9, 88, etc...do u think that JQ will call ur valuebet on the river? after u rr all the streets? I think it's more safe to check behind since ur not getting call by worse hands.

In the 2nd hand i don't see reasons to not bet...ofc he can have straight, or 2pairs but i think he wouldn't play that type of hands like he did...prolly ur getting called by QX or AT.
 
Sysvr4

Sysvr4

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Post above ignores this

How so? If villain calls down with any pair, betting the river for value in Hand 1 is pretty thin, wouldn't you say? Sure, he can have a worse Q, but the hand combinations do not clearly favor that possibility, thus making it thin. What's your plan when you get raised?

I also check hand 1 and bet hand 2. There's no plausible hand that the turn and river improved in hand 2 that worries me.

Edit: Raise more PF in hand 1 though.
 
No Brainer

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Just to make it clear, if I shoved the river in hand one I could see villain calling with any Q, any T and any 7 with a picture card as well as 8s obviously. Only hands I am really worried about are any 8 and any 2 pair.
 
WVHillbilly

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Just to make it clear, if I shoved the river in hand one I could see villain calling with any Q, any T and any 7 with a picture card as well as 8s obviously. Only hands I am really worried about are any 8 and any 2 pair.

If you honestly think this is true it's a VERY EASY shove. I put in an 87% range into Stove and left only those hands in the preflop range that fall into your any Q,T,7+Broadway,8 shove calling range and you're a 70% favorite over that range.

I think hand 2 is a bet/fold (~pot sized).
 
F Paulsson

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I think both rivers are easy bets, with the decription of villain. Bad players are much more prone to donk the river when they suddenly make a big hand than they are to suddenly slowplay. Slowplay flop, yes - slowplay turn, yes - but not often the river. Because of that, his distribution strongly weighs towards not having an 8, and our river bet becomes really easy.
 
No Brainer

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I tended to go with betting when reviewing the hands. While playing however my brain clicked into the 'don't play for stacks with one pair hands' and I checked them back.

I do know that you can't put a set rule on any part of poker as it is changing with every hand but when something like that gets into your head, it is hard to go against it within the time you have to make a decision.
 
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