$25 NLHE Full Ring: Raise or call with overcards and a flush draw

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/16/33

poker stars $25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em
Table Almeisan II (real money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 6: Hero ( $25.00 USD )
Seat 8: Player8 ( $25.84 USD ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 16, 3B: 9, Ag% 33 hands: 153

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah Kh ]
Hero raises [$0.75 USD]
Player8 calls [$0.75 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, Th, 7h ]

Hero bets [$1.12 USD]
Player8 raises [$3.50 USD]

Looks a pretty strong player by his stats...whiffs a bit of a set as I cant put that many suited connectors into that range unless its QJ
Hero?

He could have combo heart draws just like yourself, 89, j9, 86, 45, 46. I would lean more towards raising, if you just call you should be folding a lot of turns. He can have sets here a decent amount of the time. Just because he is tight doesn't mean he can't call you with speculative hands, especially on the button. You really don't have enough hands on him to know, but does he raise cbets often? Just saw that this was full ring, it is probably more sets than anything else.

As your stack is 100BBs, maybe call here and bet - shove the turn is a good option. You can also choose to 4bet here and shove the turn directly and you will play in the same way when you have AA-QQ

Looking at his stats, you can assume his range is something like 9 combos of sets, 3 combos of flush draws(QJs, 98s, and something random). Against that range you have about 38% equity. If you assume villan has no fold equity, and will go all-in with you on flop, then it is probably a bad idea to do so, since your equity isn't very good. Calling would probably be the best option, but remember you only have 8 outs (4h is no good). Also you can stack him if he also has a flush draw.

This is one of the hands that I never knew how to play properly. The problem is that it looks like no player will reraise us with something that we have a good equity against. We are ahead only against flush draws but there are not many in his range. Also not many implied odds if we call and hit the flush. It will be quite obvious what we have.

Why would it be obvious? Presumably with an overpair we can play the same, no?

LD1977 said:

Why would it be obvious? Presumably with an overpair we can play the same, no?

Click to expand...

Calling yes. But we will have to get value OOP because we played for the implied odds. When we will try that it will be obvious.

This is the multiplication factor of what we need to extract to make profit on the long run.

Our Equity Multiply his bet by:
35% 2x
25% 3x
20% 4x
15% 6x
10% 9x

We have something ~ 30% on the flop to get something better on later streets I belive. So we need to extract 2.5x 3.5 =8.75 dollars if no other betting from him happens on the turn. It is quite a lot. Things are more complicated if the turn does not show a heart and he bets again on the turn. And we are OOP all of the time.

LD1977 said:

Why would it be obvious? Presumably with an overpair we can play the same, no?

Click to expand...

Exactly, especially AA

Looking at his stats and assuming he picked up I was showing 100% cbet this session I dont think he actually needs much of a hand to raise me here. My aggression factor is also quite low for this session. He may assume I simply missed this flop and bet to end it there.
There are a lot of factors to consider. I happen to agree that hitting the flush wont lead to much value here so is calling really that good a play here? Can we consider a raise here it would certainly help to define his strength.

None of the expert members has an opinion on this?

I would just flat here and evaluate what he will do next.

OOP you should 3-bet (it's not a 4 bet guys ), and shove most turns. The primary reason being is that this isn't a flop that is going to hit someone super hard a lot. Your bet sizing also looks weak. I'm not sure if this is your standard OOP sizing, but if so I'd consider changing it.

If you call OOP it's much harder to extract value and you no longer have control of the hand. In position this is a slightly different story. He can have some combo draws, straight draws, lower flushes, etc... He could also be donking with a T or a 7, or 88,99,66, etc.. and fold those at least a % of the time if you haven't been super aggro lately. If you add in his air range, which I don't think would be smart to get tricky at on this level and call to keep that in with your A high, then you're in decent enough shape.

I would make a strong case for flatting the flop. I just don't understand the point of raising, Why would you want action from worse draws when your hand is only Ace high? If villain 4bets that your just donk stacking off with the nut flush draw, why would you want to do that? Your hand has incredible equity, and if all of your pair outs are live you can easily check-call both the turn and the river, under the assumption that the villains range (which is comprised of many unmade hands) is prepared to 3barrel at the pot. If you don't improve on the turn, you can check-shove or just flat depending on bet sizing. Furthermore, it is very likely you'll get a check back from OESD, smaller flush draws, and even some pairs. I just see no point in bloating the pot OOP with Ace high. Your hand has tremendous improvement capability, so your objective should be to improve and calculate a strategy to take your opponents entire stack

Ok now I'm getting confused.
John A are you saying raise now on the flop and shove the turn no matter what arrives?
If I raise to say $8 -9 and he shoves presumably are we then stacking off. If he has a set we are well behind equity wise only 25%.
Then I have Karozi who is clearly a strong player saying just call the flop and then check shove or just call the turn.
Any other opinions?

Figaroo2 said:

Ok now I'm getting confused.
John A are you saying raise now on the flop and shove the turn no matter what arrives?
If I raise to say $8 -9 and he shoves presumably are we then stacking off. If he has a set we are well behind equity wise only 25%.
Then I have Karozi who is clearly a strong player saying just call the flop and then check shove or just call the turn.
Any other opinions?

Click to expand...

I have no idea why he's saying you don't want worse draws to get it in. I'm not really understanding what he's saying at all.

Fig, it's a math thing. You know this is based on a range, and versus that range you're in ok shape. You're well over 50% equity versus that range. And yes, I'm saying to raise to something like $8 and then jam all turns, and if he shoves on the flop to your 3-bet, then yes, you are of course calling.

Someone clarify this for me. Is this a lvl where the villain could get that tricky so that whole theory add up? I mean there are not many draws in his range because he is on the tight part of the TAGs. For me it looks a lot more like a straightforward action.

What do you mean tricky? He is probably a tight tag, but there's only 150 hands on him. He's in position, and you'd be surprised what people will show up with. I had someone the other day who was tighter than this that flatted 45s out of the blinds.

Again... this is math. If you add up his raising range (and I would put this on the tight side, because I think a lot of people at this level will also make small raises with hands like AJ for example facing a weak bet on this board), and how much of that he'll fold to a 3-bet + your equity if you do get it in it's pretty clear.

Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board: 4d Th 7h

Equity Win Tie Hand Range
55.3628% 55.3628% 0% [ AhKh ]
44.6372% 44.6372% 0% [ 6h5h(100), QhJh(100), 98s(100), 65o(100), 98o(100), Jh9h(100), ATs(100), ATo(100), 77-JJ(100), 44(100), KTo(100), KTs(100) ]


And you consider he's going to fold some of that range to a re-raise and a turn shove. Then you add in what his stacking range is... and let's even keep that super tight and remove some draws he ends up folding, which is unrealistic imho.

Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board: 4d Th 7h

Equity Win Tie Hand Range
46.1818% 46.1818% 0% [ AhKh ]
53.8182% 53.8182% 0% [ 6h5h(100), QhJh(100), 98s(100), ATs(100), ATo(100), 77(100), 44(100), TT-JJ(100) ]

It's pretty clearly a +EV play. And I think calling, and trying to hope to hit, and hope to get paid when you do would be -EV long term OOP. Again, IP... different story.

Ok here is how it went down

I raised on the flop, he shoved, I called, the board ran out neither improved and I took it down.
My equity calc shows me 65%, vill 35%.
I just wanted to make sure it was ok to raise this flop...looks like I made the right choice.
And next time I will lead out bigger oop to make it easier to get in in

I think this hand is a good example of an adage I'm going to add in polished poker:
Don't expect others to play a hand how you think they should play it.

If you think like that, you're going to get yourself in a lot of trouble at the table. Tight players will show up with small suited connectors, gutter balls, odd 2 pairs, etc... you have to consider the whole range, and then narrow down the likelihood of that range.

I'm sure you know this Fig, but your 65% means nothing. Your real equity is going to be similar to the ranges I showed. That's all that matters.

Unfortunately I saw the results already but this is a very standard re-raise for me with two overs and the NFD HU versus what looks to be an aggressive player.

Edit: Actually, I am confused. Is this HU?

The first thing I do before entering a hand is look at the openers vpip and pfr and compare my cards equity against his range and fold/call/raise as appropriate. I tightened his range abit after his flop raise and will admit to being a tad surprised when having missed the turn and rive/r the chips came my way. He did have the oesd to go with his flush draw so I can see why he shoved.

Figaroo2 said:

The first thing I do before entering a hand is look at the openers vpip and pfr and compare my cards equity against his range and fold/call/raise as appropriate. I tightened his range abit after his flop raise and will admit to being a tad surprised when having missed the turn and rive/r the chips came my way. He did have the oesd to go with his flush draw so I can see why he shoved.

Click to expand...

Yep he had a monster draw himself. From his point of view he was a clear favorite against your range.

John A said:

I have no idea why he's saying you don't want worse draws to get it in. I'm not really understanding what he's saying at all.

Fig, it's a math thing. You know this is based on a range, and versus that range you're in ok shape. You're well over 50% equity versus that range. And yes, I'm saying to raise to something like $8 and then jam all turns, and if he shoves on the flop to your 3-bet, then yes, you are of course calling.

Click to expand...

You don't understand what i'm saying? let me make it very clear. Your hand does have considerable equity, but this is a microstakes game, villain is more liable to A.FOLD or B. SHIP than flat. If you raise here, your getting the villain to fold out a lot of hands you want action from. If the villain flats, and you miss, then you are in a position where you have less than 30% equity against the villains range with one card to come. If the villain shoves, would you happily call? You have more than 50% equity against a random unknowns range but I highly doubt you have more than that against a random unknowns SHOVING range. The fact of the matter is that you are only "happy to get your money in" because you CREATED those pot odds when you made an unnecessary 3bet with AK on a seemingly wet board.

OMGZZ i Flopped a flush draw with oversss!! let me 3bet with ace high!! hes obvs. going to ship it with a 89o!

but the reality is its probably just a fold or a click back with a set

there is no right or wrong way to play your hand, you could be a decent case for getting all the chips in ASAP and you can make a great case for slowplaying the hand with the assumption that you'll improve. It's your responsibility to interpret the players stats and take the approach that you think will generate the highest level of profits. That is what separates good from great, after all.

Your probably not getting 2 streets of action from just a flush draw or just a straight draw, if he has an OESFD then he's trying to jam it in the hopes that you have 2 black aces, but in actuality that's the best case scenario for you hand


Karozi