$25 NLHE Full Ring: QQ pos On Flop Continue from other post

ALL IN CLUBS

ALL IN CLUBS

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$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem (8 players)
SB: $36.77
BB: $25
UTG: $30.70
UTG+1: $32.45
MP: $25
MP+1: $23.90
CO: $31.68
BTN Hero: $25.38

Pre-flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN and dealt :qd4: :qh4:
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, SB folds, BB raises to $2.65, Hero calls $1.80

Flop: ($5.40) :10h4: :4h4: :9s4: (2 players)
BB bets $4.05 Hero here is link to 1st post on his stats and Preflp So what will u do
1.) Call his Cbet and see if he continues on turn?
2.) Fold now?
3.) Reraise him to test his response like a blocker bet?
 
dwbrown7680

dwbrown7680

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That's a strong bet from a tight player but knowing what he 3b's we're ahead of most of his range. Call the cbet and play the turn accordingly.
 
dooydoo

dooydoo

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I think calling is the only option. Raising will fold out worse and get better to shove on us.

Folding is wrong because we still have the best hand a decent amount of the time.

I call expecting to be ahead a decent amount and looking for a cheap showdown or if the board gets wetter and he shows weakness, i can think about turning QQ into a bluff here assuming we have fold equity.
 
dooydoo

dooydoo

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Also other questions you should be asking are:

1. If i call what turns are good for me? Bad for me?
2. Is my hand good at showdown if we x it down?
3. Can i turn QQ into a bluff if the board comes out in a way thats bad for him?
4. What does raising his cb accomplish?
5. Would i be a favourite all in on the flop?
6. Whats his flop cb range?
 
Deco

Deco

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I min raise.

*It looks like a draw on this board
*Villain isn't likely to double barrel air based on his street by street aggression stats
*I worry less about draw in 3bet pots but you really don't get any more drawy than this flop.
*Villains draws may shove
*Villains value range is never folding on a board this drawy
*A lot of turn cards may kill our action vs villains value range.
 
acky100

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I call.

Why do we think there are so many draws in villains range here? It looks to me like most regs are gonna be 3betting Ax Kx type hands more often than like 78s here in their bluffing range.

I dont know if im way off here or not but how are there are a ton of draws in villains range? We also have backdoor flush and straight outs and if we do raise here villain is probably gonna shove his draws and then we're not so happy about calling an all in.

Villain isnt gonna be happy about playing AA or KK a lot of the time when the board gets even more drawy so if he's a weak reg he might actually just kind of shut down and give us a cheap showdown. If he's weak he will also probably not bet the turn again with his bluffs, but he could.
 
Deco

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Why do we think there are so many draws in villains range here?

I don't but I think the draws will scare off villains weaker value hands.
That and the drawy board makes our raise look more full of shit. The raise isn't to protect our hand but to extract value by making our line look bluffy and getting the money in before villain gets scared off.

Tx/JJ sort of hands are going to be scared off by half the deck. Whilst draws shoving on us now is the best possible outcome we can get from them as we've successfully charged them their whole stack to see the turn and river.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I min raise.

*It looks like a draw on this board
*Villain isn't likely to double barrel air based on his street by street aggression stats
*I worry less about draw in 3bet pots but you really don't get any more drawy than this flop.
*Villains draws may shove
*Villains value range is never folding on a board this drawy
*A lot of turn cards may kill our action vs villains value range.
that
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I don't but I think the draws will scare off villains weaker value hands.
That and the drawy board makes our raise look more full of shit. The raise isn't to protect our hand but to extract value by making our line look bluffy and getting the money in before villain gets scared off.

Tx/JJ sort of hands are going to be scared off by half the deck. Whilst draws shoving on us now is the best possible outcome we can get from them as we've successfully charged them their whole stack to see the turn and river.

I kind of like a min raise too but if we do raise here we can't fold to a shove (I know you're not advocating that but I think some may be thinking it). Calling it off after min-raising is pretty thin depending on how many Tx hands we give him in his 3bet range but folding after raising the flop would be worse.
 
Deco

Deco

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Oh ye raise folding would be beyond horrible. I'm trying to induce shoves or at least commit weaker hands.

Sure we're always scared of KK+ but Btn vs BB we're pretty much always getting stacked by without a Q/K/A falling.
We will see plenty of non-KK+ hands. They make up 0.9% of all cards. Villains overall 3bet% was 5%, in Btn vs BB scenarios it will be much higher despite the 4% BB 3bet which is not telling us much as they're never 3betting from the BB light vs EP/MP opens. At this point I consider my goose cooked if villain has KK+ and do not alter my lines in the hope I can lose less money from them by letting the draws or an Ace or King land. My priority is maximising the amount of hands that aren't KK+ coming along.
 
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