$25 NLHE Full Ring: QQ played passively vs donk bets facing river shove

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 62/11/8

full tilt poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1122234
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UTG: $24.84
MP: $40.94
CO: $25.00
Hero (BTN): $26.90
SB: $25.00
BB: $13.18

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3.40, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.40

Flop: ($7.15) 9 9 T (2 players)
UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($12.15) 6 (2 players)
UTG bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

River: ($27.15) K (2 players)
UTG bets $11.44

villian has been showing up with basically any two cards over about 60 hands I have played at the table. I think I played this way too passively to this point and now with the river I am really, really not happy with the way I have played this. Villian is winning about 50% of hands at showdown. As played is this a fold or a call on the river. Even though the HH is only showing 6 players it was a full ring table with 9 players.

With his AF I don't see how you can do anything but call (I actually don't mind just calling all 3 streets against this villain at all). He raised preflop so we'll go with an 11% range. Since he's fairly likely to bet/bet/bet with that entire range your QQ is ahead on the river here ~58%. Since you only need to be good about 30% of the time, snap call.

Even if he stacks you it's not horrible since he's very likely to give it all back quickly (with interest). If he shows you AK just reload and get in lots of pots against him. Don't worry what might have happened if you had raised him on the flop or turn because you should know that he would have made the same river bet regardless of his holding.

His range isn't that full %11 though given he called a 3bet OOP.

I still call down but I don't think it's a snap or anything, it's just kinda meh.

ChuckTs said:

His range isn't that full %11 though given he called a 3bet OOP.

I still call down but I don't think it's a snap or anything, it's just kinda meh.

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Yeah, I doubt he folds much of his opening range though so probably doesn't effect things all that much.

I can't see him folding much of his opening range to a 3 bet with stats like that. Over 60 hands his AF could be way off here so I don't think we can really rely on that to assume he is going to bet all 3 streets as bluffs. If we were to raise though I cant see many worse hands that will be calling us here. Maybe AT or QJ on the flop and probably only AT if we were to raise the turn. If he is a real spaz he could be calling a raise with AK, AQ but that is very villain dependant.

As played I think we should definitely be calling this river, against a fairly tight range that I think will bet all 3 streets here we are about 45%....