$25 NLHE Full Ring: QQ 3bet pot, bad board

$25 NL HE Full Ring: QQ 3bet pot, bad board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 35/26/5

over only 25 hands

MP1: $25 (100 bb)
MP2: $17.64 (70.6 bb)
Hero (MP3): $26.03 (104.1 bb)
CO: $34.42 (137.7 bb)
BTN: $33.81 (135.2 bb)
SB: $33.60 (134.4 bb)
BB: $5 (20 bb)
UTG+2: $32.19 (128.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Q:spade: Q:club:
UTG+2 raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, CO folds, BTN calls $4.50, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $3

Flop: ($13.85) T:club: 2:heart: J:heart: (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $8, BTN folds, UTG+2 calls $8

Turn: ($29.85) T:heart: (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks

River: ($29.85) J:spade: (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $11.50, Hero

Is there anything left that I beat ?

I think 3betting pre is fine, especially given his fish stats.
Do you agree with flop and turn lines ?
I was thinking after he called flop that I was most likely beat especially since turn completes draws.

And I think river is just a fold. Anyone agree ?

Don't worry about flush draws completing in 3bet pots. Im not really happy about it, but I just stack this on the turn. His stats are making him looking like a maniac and theres plenty of Jx hands that stack and underpairs that will stack if u just bet the turn. As played, it sucks, but I probably make a crying call since he only bets like 1/3 pot and he has some underpairs that just got counteirfeitted here. I prob also call this river with A high as well.

make ur bets bigger on every street

make ur bets bigger on every street

Click to expand...

I agree that preflop he could 3bet bigger, but why does he need to bet larger on the flop here? In a 3bet pot we arent ever worried about charging draws since they are such a small part of villains range. I think $8 is fine on that flop. He can still get the money in very easily by the river by betting ~half pot on every street.

bw07507 said:

I agree that preflop he could 3bet bigger, but why does he need to bet larger on the flop here? In a 3bet pot we arent ever worried about charging draws since they are such a small part of villains range. I think $8 is fine on that flop. He can still get the money in very easily by the river by betting ~half pot on every street.

Click to expand...

I always 3bet 3x, should I look to change this based on opponents too ?
When should I 3bet bigger and when should I make it smaller ?

Well initially I was thinking if he calls flop he most likely has AJ or AA/KK.
Maybe a straightdraw with like something retarded that he can't fold to a 3bet.
But it's a bit unlikely seeing as he opened early.

Then on the river AJ gets there and AA/KK is still a possibility so I don't really see how we can call it ? Also it doesn't seem like a bet size he would make with a missed draw. I mean regs can bet small to rep a flush and I do it too myself from time to time, but this seems like fish wanting to get value ?

bw07507 said:

I agree that preflop he could 3bet bigger, but why does he need to bet larger on the flop here? In a 3bet pot we arent ever worried about charging draws since they are such a small part of villains range. I think $8 is fine on that flop. He can still get the money in very easily by the river by betting ~half pot on every street.

Click to expand...

i like to think that if we bet bigger in spots like this, we allow the villains to easily get their stack in (if they have, let's say, a 2x-pot-bet left rather than a 3.5x or 4x, they'll be more likely to just say f-it i'm committed, i shove my AJ or AT, or whatever). the higher the stack/pot ratio in regards to our bet, the less likely they are to raise when behind with a top-pair-ish hand and the more likely to call and reconsider on a later street (observing hero's further aggression).

in other words, i think that if u bet $8 into a $8.50 pot, and villain has $40, he's going to be shoving over this bet with, let's say, KT on a T87r board (assuming he doesn't want to fold, which he prob doesn't after flopping TPGK in a 3bet pot, or whatever) because calling the bet makes the pot pretty huge, and he doesn't want to see his made hand turn to crap after a weird turn card in a big pot. if your bet is $4.75 into $8.50 and villain has $48, his shove would be an overbet (in his eyes), and any other raise would be pretty awkward because his bet would be the committing one, and not yours. so, he would be likely to call and reconsider the turn, which sux balls for our KK when the turn card is a 9,6,J,A,Q, etc.

in my experience, in spots like this, if you want to commit, you might as well just make it easiest for villain to commit his stack as soon as possible, because villains will make "stack mistakes" (stacking off when maybe they'd rather the bet have been smaller so they can see a later street) more on flop than turn or river.

not to mention the board is pretty draw-heavy, so a bigger bet charges his KQ, AQ, Q9, peely-call-a-3bet-speculatively-see-what-happens-spew-hands as well.

again, this is just my experience and the way i approach a hand like this, and not necessarily the right way. i'm not sure which is better, trying to commit on the flop or trying to commit by the river.


but my main theorem is that the bigger the bet, the bigger villain's immediate mistake, assuming there isn't a huge disparity in the hands he's calling a smaller bet with vs a bigger bet (which is reduced when the pot is 3bet, etc).

edit: also i think that villains make more mistakes when hero's bet is the committing one, and not theirs.


hopefully this made sense, i'm still kinda hung over.




ps: this post is way tl;dr, wtf

Okay well I think it's a pretty clear fold on the river, considering no hand really bluffs here except maybe KQ.

I love your bet on the flop I don't think you did anything wrong there.

I really dislike your check on the turn, was the ten a scare card for you?
If he has KQ/AQ/AJ/AK then your just giving him a free card to hit on you. Let's look at how many cards you don't want to come; any K, any J, any A, and any heart* (except the queen) maybe even a 9 but we'll just count the 9 as 2 outs. So 3 K's (no K of hearts) 3 J's, 4 A's if he has KQ, 3 A's if he has an ace, and 9 hearts.

20 cards or so that you don't want to see, 40% chance of them coming.

Bet the turn!

Now you do not have to worry about half of these cards coming out because if he calls with AK, or AQ, or KQ he's a donk.

Btw, you said AA/KK is still possible? I highly doubt that is the case unless he seems like the trappy/fancy plays player.