$25 NLHE Full Ring: Pot odds vs 52/15

BLieve

BLieve

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: Pot odds vs 52/15

Villain is GRIND3R777 with a 52/15 and 40Afq through 60 hands. I will include my lines of thinking and colorful commentary as usual in the hand history.

Stage #1817671035: Holdem No Limit $0.25 - 2009-12-25 16:18:50 (ET)
Table: JAY AVE (real money) Seat #7 is the dealer
Seat 7 - WATTANAYA ($22.46 in chips)
Seat 8 - GRIND3R777 ($17.70 in chips)
Seat 9 - DKJELDSEN187 ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 1 - MJONES4 ($39.21 in chips)
Seat 2 - KROMPIR ($23.73 in chips)
Seat 3 - COLTRAINS ($40.44 in chips)
Seat 4 - D1CEMAN ($24.40 in chips)
Seat 5 - BLIEVE ($25.96 in chips)
Seat 6 - S100SEAGALRY ($28.54 in chips)
GRIND3R777 - Posts small blind $0.10
DKJELDSEN187 - Posts big blind $0.25
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to BLIEVE [Kc Kh]
MJONES4 - Raises $0.75 to $0.75
MJONES is a 28/14 so his raise UTG could be anything. I will do my usual 2.5 raise behind him.
KROMPIR - Folds
COLTRAINS - Folds
D1CEMAN - Folds
BLIEVE - Raises $2 to $2
S100SEAGALRY - Folds
WATTANAYA - Folds
GRIND3R777 - Calls $1.90
What a dumbass 52/15
DKJELDSEN187 - Calls $1.75
Oh hells no him too? 26/0
MJONES4 - Calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [3c 4s 5d]
Damn 4 to a flop someone could hold a set. Should I check call this down? 2 pair possibilities. No I have to make some bet to fold out someone who might catch a 2 pair, straight or set with the turn or river.
GRIND3R777 - Checks
DKJELDSEN187 - Checks
MJONES4 - Checks
BLIEVE - Bets $3
Ill be fine if Im down to one opponent.
GRIND3R777 - Raises $6 to $6
Hm...mini raise...hm...got to call and hope he checks it down...if he bets then re-analyze (time running out)
DKJELDSEN187 - Folds
MJONES4 - Folds
BLIEVE - Calls $3
*** TURN *** [3c 4s 5d] [8h]
GRIND3R777 - All-In $9.70
Ok pure pot odds at this point...$10 win $30...I have to be right 25% of the time.
BLIEVE - ???

How would you calculate the math for this last part? Would your decision change against a 25/10?

A few things I did not pick up during the hand. While he made the mini raise I failed to check his stack size no homo. This should have been noticed.
 
TPC

TPC

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You are getting three to one which means you have to be right 33% of the time.

The C bet on the flop is way to small, which is probably why you get reraised. I doubt he flats behind you preflop with AA. He either flatted there with A2 or called with a PP, if he's actually ahead right now. With his stats, I would have shoved over the top of his $6 raise.

question is has he shown aggression before? Your weak bet on the flop could make him think you are weak and it's a good time to bluff. If he does have a set or a straight, it's just bad luck. You have to call here no matter what. In the future against an opponent like this, you are never folding to him with a flop like that, you might as well just put him all in on the flop.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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3:1 is the same thing as 1 out of 4, or 25%. Not 33%.

Bet larger everywhere.
 
BLieve

BLieve

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Yea I know standard PF raise is 3.5x the bet but usually 2.5x gets the point across when you are behind someone. I really didnt expect BOTH the blinds to flat call $2. And since they called the original raiser gets good odds and goes along. That really screwed me over.

The pot is $8 at the flop the reason for my less than half pot bet is to deter any catches on the turn and river since at this point I think its a 50-50 I have the best hand. A $3 bet should fold out any draws and prevent someone catching 2 pair. If someone is holding a set then well I am screwed anyway.

As for villain I dont remember any other hands from him so I would say I have no reads.

So final decision? Fold or call?
 
S

switch0723

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how does a small bet scare away people with drawing hands when it gives them odds to draw?, bet much larger on wet flops like this one so they dont have odds, and you can shove turn nicely if called, then shove over villains raise to get it in as a favourite against his range. As played snap call turn, probably with a small fistpump
 
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