$25 NLHE Full Ring: Overpair facing flop checkraise

Richyl2008

Richyl2008

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: Overpair facing flop checkraise

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 43/10/1.7

I have only 23 hands on this player, basically an unknown fish. He's folded to 2/3 cbets and hasnt donked into or ch/raised anyone yet.
He's definitley capable of having any 2 pair combo on this board, don't know if he would do this with something like aj,j10,j8(certainly possible)
I would think he's more likely to ch/call with his bare draws. Whats the plan here?


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HAND #1
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party poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker
MP2: $11.20 (44.8 bb)
Hero (MP3): $25.35 (101.4 bb)
CO: $12.90 (51.6 bb)
BTN: $9.70 (38.8 bb)
SB: $17.75 (71bb)
BB: $48.25 (193 bb)
UTG+2: $5 (20 bb)
MP1: $28.40 (113.6 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP3 with Q:heart: Q:club:
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB folds
Flop: ($2.25) 7:club: J:club: 9:spade: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB raises to $4, Hero ....
 
slycbnew

slycbnew

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Tricky spot, with that low AF - I think, though, that TPGK makes up a huge part of his range, especially if combined with a draw. Can't fold it, and can't call it - I'd raise to $12-$14, but a shove is probably the right move.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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23 hands is a pretty negligible sample size in terms of stats.

The key to your decision is his stack size. If you just call, the pot will be $10.25, and he will have $12.75 left, so he will likely just shove the turn. And almost any card in the deck will be a pretty scary turn card for you. So I think calling is a bad decision, as you're unlikely to get to a cheap showdown.

So it pretty much becomes push or fold. While stats are meaningless after 23 hands, if you've witnessed him fold to c-bets and never check-raise, and your gut says he wouldn't do this with a draw, I wouldn't fault a fold. With unknowns, unless I've seen them put their money in with ridiculous holdings, I like waiting until I know I have a better chance of getting my money in good. But I'm also pretty nitty. ;)
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

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Running this through Stove, it looks like a clear shove, imo. He's definitely calling with like QJ+, and probably JT and J8 as well. I don't think you're ever going to be worse than like 45/55 vs. w/e his calling range may be here, so I vote for shipping it.
 
X

Xaras23

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probably he has a AJ or a tree of a kind 7! a very dangerous flop, straigth and a flush draw! go all in!
 
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