Originally Posted by Ambur
I did not even understand the stats which is in your HUD and why are low wtsd so important - what this could tell us?
Or why is good calling preflop? I mean our hand is basically set mine value at that point and 71% of the time will overcard hit the flop! hmm
If we take passive line overall, seems like we lose value (active stack 100bb beginning). And if we are facing vs regular opponent, how often they will pay us second best hand on river and how often are our hand second best on river?
Hud stats are top line vpip / pfr / agg% / number of hands
second line 3bet% / fold to 3bet% / flop cbet% / fold to flop cbet
third line EP vpip% / MP vpip% / won hand at SD% / 4bet% / fold to 4bet%
If your opponent has a low WTSD percentage, (or in my HUD,or a low won hand at SD%) it means they are generally less aggressive and only get to showdown with their strongest hands, so then there's a lot of room to bluff them post flop.
As this particular player had a relatively low wtsd and doubles but doesn't triple barrel it means he's less likely to bet or call a bet on the river.
This is the problem here....If we raise the turn we are basically announcing we have a very strong hand and he has an easy fold, yet he is unlikely to bet on the end if we just call.
So where if anywhere are we going to get extra value from this particular villain. Being in position is a big help here.
Apart from the flush draw coming in our hand is unlikely to be beaten on the river. So we could just call and hope he bets again on the river, If a flush draw comes we might regret that decision, so its a double edged sword. Against his normal opening range we have at least 95% equity on the turn so its a small chance he has a flush draw.
Personally I dont like 3betting hands like TT 99 88 77 in position unless I'm up against a total drooler. If you get 4 bet you often have to fold them which imo is a terrible waste of their equity, id much rather just see a flop, especially against aggressive regs. If we hit a set we will usually win at least two bets as we have here...they are always difficult to play postflop because as you say overcards will come so another reason why I don't like to inflate the pot early.