$25 NLHE Full Ring: Nut trips vs aggression (possible FH), line check

pokerstars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)

Button ($45.45)
SB ($25)
BB ($63.29)
UTG ($18.25)
UTG+1 ($33.36)
MP1 ($87.27)
MP2 ($45.43)
MP3 ($25)
Hero (CO) ($25.91)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A , K
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.62, 1 fold, SB calls $0.52, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.86) 10 , A , A (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.12, SB raises to $3.77, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.65

Turn: ($9.40) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $6.91, Hero calls $6.91

River: ($23.22) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $13.70 (All-In), Hero calls $13.70

Total pot: $50.62 | Rake: $2

I don't have a big sample on this guy (around 1k hands), stats:
- Fold vs cbet = 65% (this is alarming)
- AF = 3.9 (looks bluffy)
- won showdown 46% (also looks bluffy)

I take the line that keeps all lesser trips in (+ I have K outs) but I am losing to TT and AT, my flush is irrelevant really. He could actually do this with a lesser FD but I don't have notes that say so.

Sooooo, turn/river is call or fold?

Results below:

What are the BB stats? Is he a big fish? There are guys that would flat TT or ATs here to keep the fish in even if he is playing OOP the rest of the hand.
Anyway he has a FH or he is bluffing. I do not think you can do something about it if he has FH. His betsize is perfect so you cannot fold.

Preflop he is 14 / 12 with good positional awareness.

That being said, my raise size is 2.5bb so he can defend a bit wider than normal. Certainly he has TT, AT and various suited hands in his range here. QhJh and lower SCs (9h8h and maybe 6h5h) are possible, even other combos like Qh9h and Jh9h.

I try not to be a station and have recognized the danger but it seems he isn't averse to bluffing. I think he might raise flop with a weaker Ace but turn/river show he has to either have FH or FD (or is spazzing out)...

LD1977 said:

Preflop he is 14 / 12 with good positional awareness.

That being said, my raise size is 2.5bb so he can defend a bit wider than normal. Certainly he has TT, AT and various suited hands in his range here. QhJh and lower SCs (9h8h and maybe 6h5h) are possible, even other combos like Qh9h and Jh9h.

Click to expand...

1k hands is plenty to know a 14/12 is a nit. Given this plus his being positionally aware, how likely is it that he called pre- and then check-raised the flop with draws i.e. with the suited hands you've listed?

Also, is there any basis to assume this particular player is likely to call / defend wider than he normally would? He's a nit. Unless you have reasons to think he will be less nitty in this spot, why do so?

By the time he shoves the river, TT seems to be his single most likely holding. The question is whether there's enough else in his weighted range to warrant calling with the pot odds we're being laid. It seems close enough that the style of this particular nit may be the deciding factor.

SB is a shark.

Moves are all forced, especially on the turn.

No regrets.

Nits usually have better than 48% at showdowns... 60%+ is not rare. So this influenced me (probably too much) :I

River is probably a fold.

Don't think you can really get away here. He is a nit and all but his agg and fold to cbet warrants that he is very aggressive postflop which makes it even harder to fold.

I think turn's close river definitely a fold. It's really hard to river the nut flush then fold but like I don't think he's ever shoving Qhx in this spot so it's like boats and bluffs and there's just no way he has enough bluffs in his range to justify calling here.

Thx guys.

He's never doing this with a Q high flush here, like you said flushes are irrelevant on this hand. Its either nuts or air.

I would call the raise on the flop, but the turn bet would be ringing alarm bells. River is a fold against a 14/12. No way does he have the capacity to fire 3 barrels on a board like that.