$25 NLHE Full Ring: Nut flu+ bottom pair on the flop against passive player who donk

Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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$25 NL HE Full Ring: Nut flu+ bottom pair on the flop against passive player who donk

full tilt poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 647058
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $14.84
Hero (BTN): $25.15
SB: $19.47
BB: $25.35
UTG: $21.17
UTG+1: $25.35
MP: $5.55

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with T
diamond.gif
A
diamond.gif

3 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1

Flop: ($2.85) J
diamond.gif
K
diamond.gif
T
spade.gif
(2 players)
CO bets $1.00, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($4.85) K
spade.gif
(2 players)
CO bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

River: ($7.85) 6
spade.gif
(2 players)
CO bets $6.72, Hero folds

Final Pot: $7.85
CO wins $7.46
(Rake: $0.39)

Villians stats are based on only 10 hands. I believe him to be passive because of his wide VPIP and PFR gap.

I think this is further confirmed by his bet sizing on the turn.

I am happy with the river fold based on my assumption and his river bet size (I really think his most likely hand was a K)

What I am unsure of is the flop. Do I call here? or do I raise? The fact that I think he is passive makes me think that he only donks with a made hand and he probably dosent fold many hands he bets.

Do I fold to his donk? My hand does have a lot of equity!
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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Raise flop.

Normally yes but are you taking into account my perception that he is passive?

Id be happy to shove if he reraised me on the flop, but I think he will most likely call my raise, I will miss the turn (most likley) my equity will drop and I will face a tough turn decision.

When he donks, I don't know what he does this with that I beat and I really dont think this is a bluff I think he has a hand and will call.
 
KyleJRM

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Normally yes but are you taking into account my perception that he is passive?

Id be happy to shove if he reraised me on the flop, but I think he will most likely call my raise, I will miss the turn (most likley) my equity will drop and I will face a tough turn decision.

When he donks, I don't know what he does this with that I beat and I really dont think this is a bluff I think he has a hand and will call.


A call leaves you in the same ugly spot as a re-raise that gets called, albeit in a smaller pot.

I guess shove flop? I think you have very good equity after that flop (I'm not always good at this part, but I think I count 15 plausible outs), and I want money in the middle now before it gets tricky or scare cards chase him away.
 
Stu_Ungar

Stu_Ungar

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A call leaves you in the same ugly spot as a re-raise that gets called, albeit in a smaller pot.

I guess shove flop? I think you have very good equity after that flop (I'm not always good at this part, but I think I count 15 plausible outs), and I want money in the middle now before it gets tricky or scare cards chase him away.

I dont like shoving pots this small. The risk to reward ratio is low and so I have to win virtually every time. I'm risking $24 to win a current pot of $3.85

I definately have good equity but shoving here?

Lets say he checked, I would bet $2.20 he then min raises to $4.40 Id shove here because Im risking $22 to win 9 which is just much better odds.
 
Stu_Ungar

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A call leaves you in the same ugly spot as a re-raise that gets called, albeit in a smaller pot.

A smaller pot is what I wanted, but maybe I should be aiming for a bigger one. I'm not keen on inflating a pot against a passive player when I dont really have anything (because they dont fold)
 
Numbuh 0ne

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I like raising the flop here, there are times that i would flat such as if i do think he is passive. So i guess there is a argument for both, but after that turn card hits i'm shutting it down completely
 
KyleJRM

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A smaller pot is what I wanted, but maybe I should be aiming for a bigger one. I'm not keen on inflating a pot against a passive player when I dont really have anything (because they dont fold)

I think you have a lot more than you realize you do in this hand at the flop.

If he's on a one-pair hand, then he has to dodge every queen, every ace, every 10 and every flush completion.
 
U

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I think you should fold on the flop never.

You're equity is way too good to fold their to that size of a bet, I mean 1-2.85 is pretty much a +EV call, with the number of nut outs that you have.

Given that you've played 10 hands against him and the reads you have should be fairly tenuous. And while he probably is passive it may not mean that he'll never fold.

Regardless, you should not be folding when you're hand has that much equity, if this guy is never letting go of a hand then you should have a good opportunity for massive implied odds.
 
F Paulsson

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For those saying that we should raise the flop, explain why. And that explanation should include our fold equity and both his calling range and folding range versus a raise. Bonus points for including our equity versus what we fold out as well as our equity versus that which he does not fold.
 
BelgoSuisse

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For those saying that we should raise the flop, explain why. And that explanation should include our fold equity and both his calling range and folding range versus a raise. Bonus points for including our equity versus what we fold out as well as our equity versus that which he does not fold.

I was about to answer, but meh, that's just too much work now... ;)

Stu, what are villain's VPIP/PFR stats over 10 hands? You didn't include it. Also, note that passive preflop does not mean passive postflop. Some fishes act completely different once they see a flop.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Lets say he checked, I would bet $2.20 he then min raises to $4.40 Id shove here because Im risking $22 to win 9 which is just much better odds.

Villain plays $15 deep, so at no point in this hand can you be risking $22.
 
F Paulsson

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Just to be clear about something: I don't terribly mind raising the flop. I think calling is slightly better versus most opponents, but it's fairly close, so long as we make our raise such that we leave room for him to play back at us.

The "problem" is that our hand is too good versus his betting range, but not that great versus his raise-calling range. Occasionally we'll be up against a weaker flushdraw, and that is awesome when it happens, but we happen to hold the cards that make other flushdraws difficult to have, so they're relatively rare. A raise must either fold out a better hand than ours (and out of the hands that are > 50% equity versus us, very few will be willing to fold to a flop raise) or have significant equity versus his calling range (which we don't) or have good fold equity versus his "bad" hands - which we don't.

I think raising is good versus some players, but not the majority of them. Readless, my default is to call and almost certainly call any turn.
 
F Paulsson

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Engh, addendum: we don't actually need to fold out "better" hands than ours depending on our raise size. In general, getting someone to fold, say, 30% equity, is good. But with the board the way it is and our specific holecards, there's just not much he can have that falls into that "lucrative folds" range.
 
Stu_Ungar

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I was about to answer, but meh, that's just too much work now... ;)

Stu, what are villain's VPIP/PFR stats over 10 hands? You didn't include it. Also, note that passive preflop does not mean passive postflop. Some fishes act completely different once they see a flop.

Sorry it was 44/11.

I put it in when I posted the thread but for some reason that info dosent actually appear anywhere in the post.
 
BelgoSuisse

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Arguments for raising: hitting our flush or our straight will be super scary cards for villain and we may not have any implied odds when drawing, only direct ones. Hitting an A will be scary for us and we won't be able to value bet two pairs. Villain might be willing to play for stacks with a draw we dominate or even with K3o that we beat 60/40. Or he might fold those TP hands which is good for us too if he was not going to give us implied odds when we hit. It also makes the hand a lot easier to play.

Arguments for calling. We have direct odds. We may have implied odds if villain is calling stationary or if his donking range is really strong as OP implies when he assumes villain is passive postflop with no proof to back up his assumption.
 
KyleJRM

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For those saying that we should raise the flop, explain why. And that explanation should include our fold equity and both his calling range and folding range versus a raise. Bonus points for including our equity versus what we fold out as well as our equity versus that which he does not fold.

I'lll give it a shot :) It's probably wrong, but here's my thought process:

Only 10 hands is not really a read at all, but the 44/11 says there's at least a possibility that he's passive pre-flop.

I'm going to say he calls in the cutoff with any broadway, any pair, and some random suited garbage, roughly the top 33% of hands.

I don't see why we need to give him credit for for anything more than a c-bet by donking the flop, so we are at 69% equity versus that range.

Let's say a raise folds out the naked C-bets. His range is now 99-AA, AJ+, maybe Kings down to K9, Queens down to Q9. Probably some crummy low diamond suited connectors, but I can't remember how to add those on PokerStove :). That range is full of made hands. Sets, pairs, straights. Pokerstove says we are at 50.45% equity vs. that range.

We're in pretty good shape now. Fold equity is nice, but I think I actually want more money in this hand at this point, because I feel at worse we are flipping and more likely we are giving the opponent too much credit for his range at this level. The issue is that we're not going to be in pretty good shape on the turn. We're probably going to be in amazing shape or awful shape and face a much tougher decision. When I'm faced with that situation, my reaction is that I want to buy my next two cards right now, not pay for one and then try to figure out if I want to pay for the last one in a tricky spot (or let him decide if he wants to pay for another one if a scare card hits the board and he's playing a bad one pair).
 
Stu_Ungar

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Arguments for calling. We have direct odds. We may have implied odds if villain is calling stationary or if his donking range is really strong as OP implies when he assumes villain is passive postflop with no proof to back up his assumption.

Lets assume he is passive.

What do you think a passive player donks with?

He donks out small but I see a lot of fishy players make small bets with decent hands; I dont think they understand how to size bets correctly.

So we cant say that my assumption of his range is correct, its an assumption. But what would a fishy passive player donk out with?
 
BelgoSuisse

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Fwiw, when a fish donks smallish into me, I assume he always has 2nd pair, so I raise my air to make him fold, and flat with TP+ to let him continue. It works reasonably well.

Doesn't really apply here though because our hand is both better and worse than TP.
 
Stu_Ungar

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Fwiw, when a fish donks smallish into me, I assume he always has 2nd pair, so I raise my air to make him fold, and flat with TP+ to let him continue. It works reasonably well.

Doesn't really apply here though because our hand is both better and worse than TP.

Thats basically what I put him on maybe even 2 pair betting because there is a FD.

But I just dont see him folding second best pairs here. He might fold to a shove but he wont fold to a 3 or 4X bet and he wont reraise me with less than the nuts.

I just dont see what you gain by raising a board like this with little to no FE
 
Stu_Ungar

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Infact looking at his "donking range" of any broadway and 88+ I think he calls with everything except 88 and 99 because he has so many TPGK, 2 pair and pair + straight draw hands that I now think he pretty much calls a shove here 100% well 95%
 
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Trying to get a passive player to fold on a 3-broadway board once he donks into a PFR is probably never a good idea.
 
F Paulsson

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Oh, by the way, if we happen to be out of position, somehow, I'd raise this flop 100% of the time. I agree that the turn decision will be tricky when we call, and it's certainly going to be harder still out of position. I think it's close, but I'm still ever so slightly leaning towards a call being better. If we think he can have a LOT of second-pair type hands in his range (or K3o and the likes, as Belgo suggested), then raising is probably better. If we think his range is mostly pair+OESD and better, then I think calling is preferable. But it's close. And, importantly, it highlights what kind of things we should be thinking about when we try to decide whether to raise a draw on the flop or not. It definitely shouldn't be automatic.
 
Stu_Ungar

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I think I have solved it.

Given the mainly Broadway range I put him on when he donks.

The better stratagy is to call assuming that villian will make at least a 1/3 pot sized bet or call after our hand hits.

Shoving is also a legitimately +EV move but yeilds a lower return than calling.

Even if villian makes a pot sized bet on the turn as long as he is calling 1/3 pot bet on the river its still a higher EV than shoving.

This was done with StoxEV.

If anyone has a copy and wants to look at the flow diagram, I will send it to you to check out.
 
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